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2012 Winter Banter Thread


CooL

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I just want it noted that I still read this forum everyday, but posting is too painful.

Lol I know how you feel. I haven't posted this little during the winter season ever going back a little more than 6 years. Even the crappy years had some false hopes from time to time to talk about. Remember that infamous 18z GFS run in early December 2007? What a thread that was!

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Well he did say that he is not officially writing this whole winter off yet but he said he wouldn't be shocked if this ended up like the 2001-2002 winter.

same deal as 01-02-they all gave up-one by one...phantom pattern change is eventually realized to be that....

-

and he's right-it's over, been over for awhile (outside of central/northern NE and the upper Midwest)

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Lol watch seasonal snowfall on 2 events. :weenie::whistle:

highly unlikely...you will need some combo of a PNA/-NAO and the global pattern probably wouldnt allow for that...at a minimum you need a good PNA with some high lats blocking...

we are at a huge disadvantage, 1982-1983 (which included the Megalopolis Blizzard) had the benefit of the southern stream, and even though it was the strongest Eli Nino on record to that point we were able to squeeze out a SS storm....this is a Nina...there is almost no activity from the SS..

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highly unlikely...you will need some combo of a PNA/-NAO and the global pattern probably wouldnt allow for that...at a minimum you need a good PNA with some high lats blocking...

we are at a huge disadvantage, 1982-1983 (which included the Megalopolis Blizzard) had the benefit of the southern stream, and even though it was the strongest Eli Nino on record to that point we were able to squeeze out a SS storm....this is a Nina...there is almost no activity from the SS..

In a Nina, we need last year's upper air pattern for us to work; or 1995-1996's upper air pattern.

Ninos are more fun to track, I think.

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would be totally unreal to go without a trace for December and January..that won't happen again for another 200 years.With the very warm fall and December and January..this year is by far the worst of all time

A trace I think you may be right, could be a 200 or 500 year event, you sort of need to get lucky to avoid recording even a brief snow squall for that 2 month period, even Philly and DC have seen some sort of snow. Tomorrow there is a risk that the trace could fall albeit a slim one. I think that seeing just a trace though for Dec/Jan is very manageable every 50 years or so.

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would be totally unreal to go without a trace for December and January..that won't happen again for another 200 years.With the very warm fall and December and January..this year is by far the worst of all time

Central Park total snow from December 1997 through February 1998 = 0.5 inches, so this isn't unheard of.

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