NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 eh...the lobster population around the island was hit by a bacteria as well as the pesticides from the mosquito spraying for west nile whcih really wiped out a large portion, the water temperature, IMO, has had little to do with it. The past decade has seen average water temps (generally) and studies have proven the effect of the pesticides and the bacteria on the lobster population. As for the clams, i dont believe clam numbers are down that much, but i could be mistaken... I am not aware of definitive diagnosis on what hit the lobster population; it is not a settled matter. There is considerable literature that warmer water temperatures are very detrimental to the lobster poplualtion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I am not aware of definitive diagnosis on what hit the lobster population; it is not a settled matter. There is considerable literature that warmer water temperatures are very detrimental to the lobster poplualtion. Oh i definitely agree with you that warmer water is not good for the lobsters up here...but i dont think the waters have warmed that much to make an effect yet, and the mosquito spray has in fact been proven to weaken the immune system of the lobsters and make them more susceptible to the bacteria which made them sick... Keep in mind there are lobsters in the carribean as well, so lobsters are not solely cold water creatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The flakes have begun falling in Chicago http://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyfield/?cam=wrigleyfield_hd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Good to hear. I'm happy that someone is getting snow. At least it gives us hope that it can indeed snow this winter. The flakes have begun falling in Chicago http://www.earthcam....wrigleyfield_hd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 12z GFS actually does show 2-3 chances between day 7-11. But day 7 is now same as hour 384 on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Oh i definitely agree with you that warmer water is not good for the lobsters up here...but i dont think the waters have warmed that much to make an effect yet, and the mosquito spray has in fact been proven to weaken the immune system of the lobsters and make them more susceptible to the bacteria which made them sick... Keep in mind there are lobsters in the carribean as well, so lobsters are not solely cold water creatures... The Maine lobster (Homarus Americanus), which is the type native to our waters is exclusively a cold water creature. The spiny lobsters of the tropics are different creatures. There are as many opinions on what caused the die-off as there are hits in a google search: http://www.google.co...lobster+die+off Most of the blame on pesticides comes from the lobstermen themselves, but the science has not conclusively backed them up. One more objective study published the following conclusion: Sixty-five scientists at 30 institutions and agencies nationwide participated in the research initiative, investigating the effects of environmental factors, mosquito control pesticides, and disease on the physiology and health of American lobsters. The results indicate that the physiology of the lobsters was severely stressed by sustained, hostile environmental conditions, driven by above average water temperatures. A new lobster disease, paramoebiasis, was identified as the proximate cause of death for the majority of lobsters examined by pathologists. Laboratory studies demonstrated that the pesticides used for mosquito control have sub-lethal or lethal effects on lobsters, based on concentration and time of exposure; however, modeling exercises indicate it is unlikely that the concentrations of individual pesticides in western Long Island Sound were high enough to cause the mortality event. http://web2.uconn.ed.../lobsterpid.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 does seem to start developing a ridge in Northern atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The Maine lobster (Homarus Americanus), which is the type native to our waters is exclusively a cold water creature. The spiny lobsters of the tropics are different creatures. There are as many opinions on what caused the die-off as there are hits in a google search: http://www.google.co...lobster+die+off Most of the blame on pesticides comes from the lobstermen themselves, but the science has not conclusively backed them up. One more objective study published the following conclusion: Sixty-five scientists at 30 institutions and agencies nationwide participated in the research initiative, investigating the effects of environmental factors, mosquito control pesticides, and disease on the physiology and health of American lobsters. The results indicate that the physiology of the lobsters was severely stressed by sustained, hostile environmental conditions, driven by above average water temperatures. A new lobster disease, paramoebiasis, was identified as the proximate cause of death for the majority of lobsters examined by pathologists. Laboratory studies demonstrated that the pesticides used for mosquito control have sub-lethal or lethal effects on lobsters, based on concentration and time of exposure; however, modeling exercises indicate it is unlikely that the concentrations of individual pesticides in western Long Island Sound were high enough to cause the mortality event. http://web2.uconn.ed.../lobsterpid.pdf Yea, i know there is some dispute. However, lets think about this. A massive number died off extremely quickly, immediately after the mosquito spraying. Even if the water temperature was a cause, its not as if the 1-2 degree spike over 50 years all of a sudden caught up to the lobsters in a 1-2 year period? Sure, a slow decline due to slowly increasing water temperature seems plausible...but a massive massive die off? I just do not buy it. Look at the coral reefs dying due to warmer waters, it is a slow gradual process, all of the coral didnt die off in 1 year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 12z GFS actually does show 2-3 chances between day 7-11. But day 7 is now same as hour 384 on the models. Yep, looked better than I've seen in a while. All the models have had a tendency for fantasy snow in that timeframe, however. Hope it keeps up. The end of the run also looked good with maybe a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yea, i know there is some dispute. However, lets think about this. A massive number died off extremely quickly, immediately after the mosquito spraying. Even if the water temperature was a cause, its not as if the 1-2 degree spike over 50 years all of a sudden caught up to the lobsters in a 1-2 year period? Sure, a slow decline due to slowly increasing water temperature seems plausible...but a massive massive die off? I just do not buy it. Look at the coral reefs dying due to warmer waters, it is a slow gradual process, all of the coral didnt die off in 1 year... Mosquito spraying is nothing new...its been going on for decades. And you have to look at changes in the bottom water temps, not just the surface temps. It all comes back to needing some good old fashioned winter cold, which has been completely absent for years. That would even help control the mosquitos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Another study referencing disease facilitated by abnormally warm waters: http://onlinelibrary...69906F7A.d03t03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Mosquito spraying is nothing new...its been going on for decades. And you have to look at changes in the bottom water temps, not just the surface temps. It all comes back to needing some good old fashioned winter cold, which has been completely absent for years. That would even help control the mosquitos. Disagree. Joseph Finke, a Long Island lobsterman for the past 20 years, recalls the day that death, not lobsters, came crawling out of his mesh wire traps. It was Sept. 20, 1999, four days after Hurricane Floyd dumped more than a foot of rain on Long Island. "Not in my worst nightmare could I ever have imagined that sight," said Finke, remembering the dead, dying or deformed lobsters that clogged his traps. Many area lobstermen, and a growing number of scientists, believe that New York City's use of pesticides in 1999 to combat the West Nile virus, along with huge runoffs from Hurricane Floyd, may have combined to trigger the lobster kill. More than 10 million lobsters, or 90% of the stock, are thought to have died in the western part of the Long Island Sound.102 Nick Crismale, president of the Connecticut Lobstermen's Association, said 150 lobstermen who fished in the western Long Island Sound lost their livelihoods. The remaining 1,150 who fish in the Sound have seen a dramatic reduction in their catch, some as much as 65 percent.45 The pesticides used for mosquito control are designed to kill bugs, and lobsters are bugs, or more specifically, arthropods. They share many life characteristics and a common evolutionary history with insects. They both have chitinous external skeletons and develop and grow from larvae through a series of molts. Although there is clear evidence that lobsters and other aquatic arthropods are susceptible to pyrethroids,8 temephos,90 and methoprene,5,6,15,90,94 many public officials and some scientists have been unwilling to pin the devastation of the Long Island Sound lobster fishery on the 1999 spraying for West Nile Virus. Excerpt from http://www.meepi.org/wnv/overkill.htm So what you are saying is that just four days after Floyd, all of a sudden the warmer water temps caught up with the lobsters and caused them to die in their traps even...no way man. Its clear what happened. The pushback stems obviously from their lawsuit as well as the huge impact on pest control procedures and the industry if there is an established link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Another study referencing disease facilitated by abnormally warm waters: http://onlinelibrary...69906F7A.d03t03 I do not disagree that warmer water temps can cause lobster deaths. I think you miss my point. Its like putting a man on trial for murder, for killing (shooting) someone who was just diagnosed with a non-aggressive cancer, which takes years to kill him. Yes, he was slowly dying, but the actual, but-for cause of his death was the murderer's shot. You are arguing that cancer kills people, yes i agree, but this man died from gunshot wounds despite his cancer. The lobsters died from the pesticides, while they were living in slowly increasing water temps (proven even?). You dismiss the reality that both factors can contribute, with the mosquito spray acting almost instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I do not disagree that warmer water temps can cause lobster deaths. I think you miss my point. Its like putting a man on trial for murder, for killing (shooting) someone who was just diagnosed with a non-aggressive cancer, which takes years to kill him. Yes, he was slowly dying, but the actual, but-for cause of his death was the murderer's shot. You are arguing that cancer kills people, yes i agree, but this man died from gunshot wounds despite his cancer. The lobsters died from the pesticides, while they were living in slowly increasing water temps (proven even?). You dismiss the reality that both factors can contribute, with the mosquito spray acting almost instantly. I am not missing your point; I am disagreeing with it. Most of the research I have read indicates that pesticides were not responsible for the lobster die-off. That being said, I'll concede that it couldn't be doing them any good and is possibly one of the contributing environmental stress factors. If your analogy has any merit, the murderer's shot would be a disease organism, not pesticide. My leaning is that warmer waters are the primary root cause. The other factors are secondary causes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I know that me and you (psv88) had out differenced yesterday but the pesticides or other pest treatment chemicals used being ran off into the waters did have a profound effect on the lobsters. Me running a seafood dept. I myself know how sensitivr our lobsters can be especially when hit with something sudden like that and ive had something like high ammonia in a matter of overnight kills up to a quarter of my stock. So chemicals will certainly hurt a lobster population without a doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I am not missing your point; I am disagreeing with it. Most of the research I have read indicates that pesticides were not responsible for the lobster die-off. That being said, I'll concede that it couldn't be doing them any good and is quite possibly one of the contributing environmental stress factors. My leaning is that warmer waters are the primary root cause. The other factors are secondary causes. For general lobster decline, yes agreed. But for a sharp die off right after Floyd?? Causing lobsters to die in their traps? If you know how lobster traps work, they rest on the bottom and the lobsters crawl in after the bait, and get stuck. If there are dead lobsters in the traps, they must have died instantly...definitely not from warmer waters...its like saying global warming suddenly killed all of the polar bears in a week...not how a slow warming kills things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I know that me and you (psv88) had out differenced yesterday but the pesticides or other pest treatment chemicals used being ran off into the waters did have a profound effect on the lobsters. Me running a seafood dept. I myself know how sensitivr our lobsters can be especially when hit with something sudden like that and ive had something like high ammonia in a matter of overnight kills up to a quarter of my stock. So chemicals will certainly hurt a lobster population without a doubt Ammonia would be related to nitrogen fertilizer (and sewage) runoff. Where do you get your lobsters from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Best GFS run we've seen in the past 36 hours. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 For general lobster decline, yes agreed. But for a sharp die off right after Floyd?? Causing lobsters to die in their traps? If you know how lobster traps work, they rest on the bottom and the lobsters crawl in after the bait, and get stuck. If there are dead lobsters in the traps, they must have died instantly...definitely not from warmer waters...its like saying global warming suddenly killed all of the polar bears in a week...not how a slow warming kills things... I look at the same scenario and do not make that same conclusion. In any event, its an even bigger stretch to say that proves pesticides are the culprit. Also, fwiw, rainfall totals on LI and coastal CT from Floyd were nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Ammonia would be related to nitrogen fertilizer (and sewage) runoff. Where do you get your lobsters from? Either canadian or maine.... The ammonia in the tank would be more related to as you said excretory waste that isnt properly filtered out of the tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Best GFS run we've seen in the past 36 hours. I'll take it. Temp moderations/warm-ups that we'll see from this point forward should not be as intense or prolonged as we've seen the past couple months, so that's some good news. With the +AO dying off and cross polar flow filling Canada with true arctic air, it's likely that cold shots over the next 7-10 days will verify chillier than progged on current MOS data. Dense, very cold air, especially coming from the N/NW like we'll be seeing, tends to bust numbers. There's been a lot of talk on board about the possible warm-up after January 20th, but how about the arctic air which will be hanging out across the nern tier the next 10 days. As far as snowfall, I think the Jan 15-22 period does offer some hope in terms of northern stream short waves/clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Talking about this http://www.wwfblogs.org/climate/content/climate-change-lobster-decline-southern-new-england-June2010 Not the sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Talking about this http://www.wwfblogs....ngland-June2010 Not the sound. Not disagreeing with that, and it is very sad. Lobster fishing was a large part of the north shore economy until the disease. A few of us used to go out and check out my buddies traps and get some free treats. Still, finding dead lobsters in traps is much different than a periodic decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Common thread is that we are all distressed about the lobster decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Common thread is that we are all distressed about the lobster decline. Agreed. And there is zero weather to discuss. Although, it was nice sleeping with the pouring rain last night. For some reason ive always liked going to bed with pouring rain and wind, just relaxing listening to i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 you know the weather sucks when nobody has posted in the mid-january discussion thread for two hours despite 12z model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 you know the weather sucks when nobody has posted in the mid-january discussion thread for two hours despite 12z model runs... The only exciting thing is watching the temperature gradient between North Dakota and Kansas a week from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 43/37 Cloudy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 you know the weather sucks when nobody has posted in the mid-january discussion thread for two hours despite 12z model runs... Awful. It's worse than mid April around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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