SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Can this pattern really last through the whole winter? I have a feeling we are going to go into a favorable pattern in February. There is a theory floating around from some that we may see the same sort of reversal we saw the last 2 winters from mid-February through the end of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Mid February? Oy vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Flip flop ...no torch now on 0Z GFS. much colder next week...Btw exactly as Joe B thought it would do Exactly as Joe B thought it would do? And don't even look at the 06z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Beautiful, I'm getting thunder on the morning of Jan 12. Puke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The long range is a crapshoot. I just want to see a 2-4 inch storm. Is that hard ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It's so terrible this winter all I can do is laugh, let it torch cold and dry is boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It's so terrible this winter all I can do is laugh, let it torch cold and dry is boring Ugh,again with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Exactly as Joe B thought it would do? And don't even look at the 06z gfs. There is an enhanced shot of arctic air middle of next week which models werent showing much of this 24 hours ago. Temps are now forcasted much colder for Sunday/ Monday as oppose to what NWS was forecasting a few days ago. Joe B point is that the model will not handle low level cold very well. Because of this, since Monday he's had a low of 13 for NYC for this up coming cold shot. There is an enhanced shot of arctic air middle of next week which models werent showing much of this 24 hours ago. Temps are now forcasted much colder for Sunday/ Monday as oppose to what NWS was forecasting a few days ago. Joe B point is that the model will not handle low level cold very well. Because of this, since Monday he's had a low of 13 for NYC for this up coming cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The snow gods certainly don't owe us much this year, but we are way overdue for a bitterly cold winter. We've had a few colder than normal winters on average over the last decade, but nothing major in the way of arctic outbreaks since January 2004, and before that in 1994. Prior to that they were much more common, even during the relatively snowless 70s and 80s. That's what we are overdue for and it clearly isn't going to be this winter. As contradictory as it sounds, it is "normal" to have extended periods of extreme cold from time to time and this plays an important role in the life cycles of many native plant and animal species. The one thing I hope I never have to experience is a run of winters like during the first half of the 1950s. Warm and snowless. At least 4 winters in a row marginally better (if at all) than 2001-02. Absolutely ghastly. You should see what the water temps have done to the lobster and sea clam population here. It just droped below 50 here a weak ago about a month late The bay hasn't freezed over since 93'.....a long time. PS. A lot of thunder now....... crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Were's the Thunder storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 There is definitely no argument that the pattern is changing and will have changed by Day 10. But the orientation of the highly anomalous features is extremely unfavorable for our forecast area. The ridge which was modeled a week or so ago to be forming over the Aleutians is now forecast to form well west of there. We now have a highly anomalous trough forecast from British Columbia towards Southern Alaska and the Aleutian Islands. We've got much more room for a northwest Atlantic/East Coast ridge in this type of setup. its like trading bird flue for swine flue. Different disease, same result. Death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You should see what the water temps have done to the lobster and sea clam population here. It just droped below 50 here a weak ago about a month late The bay hasn't freezed over since 93'.....a long time. PS. A lot of thunder now....... crazy Really? the Great South Bay froze Jan 04 for sure. Other then that I agree thats the one big ticket item missing without extreme cold the freezing of the local waters. I can remember ice skating as kid on frozen ponds in Nassau in the 80s many times, I also remember being able to safely walk across the canals in 94. I cant even imagine what the freezing was like in a winter like say 34 when it was below zero on multiple nights in a row. Rummer has it people used to drive across the gsb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 anyone wants to watch some exciting weather unfold just view this chicago wrigley field webcam throughout the day and hope we see some of the same at some point this winter http://www.sportsworldchicago.com/c=LPvckqQW6md2Vu08di56Rdc8a/category/a_cubworld_cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 LOL @ the "-NAO" at the end of the Euro's run hows the pacific looking...end of sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 There is a theory floating around from some that we may see the same sort of reversal we saw the last 2 winters from mid-February through the end of the winter. delay that 2 weeks and we will have an awful spring....LOCK IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The long range is a crapshoot. I just want to see a 2-4 inch storm. Is that hard ? in this winter...borderlining on impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I know we've compared this winter to other bad winters ad nauseum but if we do squeeze out good 6"+ event say in February this could end up being very similar to 94-95. By and large warm and wet with basically one wintry event to track all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Really? the Great South Bay froze Jan 04 for sure. Other then that I agree thats the one big ticket item missing without extreme cold the freezing of the local waters. I can remember ice skating as kid on frozen ponds in Nassau in the 80s many times, I also remember being able to safely walk across the canals in 94. I cant even imagine what the freezing was like in a winter like say 34 when it was below zero on multiple nights in a row. Rummer has it people used to drive across the gsb! Little Neck Bay froze up pretty good here in January 04 as well as January 03. Little lakes around here have frozen up a bunch of times to the point where they play hockey games on the little pond near my house. I'm talking about a pond that's roughly 300 by 300 though, nothing crazy. I remember the steam coming off the water near Throgs Neck Bridge the days after the huge turnaround in temps in January 05. While the frequency of the cold spells have decreased over times we have had a few that were very impressive. I mean January 04 made top ten coldest in NYC; you know that means something when we have 140 years of records, a warming climate and a massive UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Really? the Great South Bay froze Jan 04 for sure. Other then that I agree thats the one big ticket item missing without extreme cold the freezing of the local waters. I can remember ice skating as kid on frozen ponds in Nassau in the 80s many times, I also remember being able to safely walk across the canals in 94. I cant even imagine what the freezing was like in a winter like say 34 when it was below zero on multiple nights in a row. Rummer has it people used to drive across the gsb! eh, maybe on the south shore...i know that i have seen huntington harbor freeze at least for a few weeks for many winters this decade...i know it is more narrow than the great south bay, but i have also seen the great south bay largely frozen as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You should see what the water temps have done to the lobster and sea clam population here. It just droped below 50 here a weak ago about a month late The bay hasn't freezed over since 93'.....a long time. PS. A lot of thunder now....... crazy eh...the lobster population around the island was hit by a bacteria as well as the pesticides from the mosquito spraying for west nile whcih really wiped out a large portion, the water temperature, IMO, has had little to do with it. The past decade has seen average water temps (generally) and studies have proven the effect of the pesticides and the bacteria on the lobster population. As for the clams, i dont believe clam numbers are down that much, but i could be mistaken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I am really depressed. Lets all root for a HECS in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 eh...the lobster population around the island was hit by a bacteria as well as the pesticides from the mosquito spraying for west nile whcih really wiped out a large portion, the water temperature, IMO, has had little to do with it. The past decade has seen average water temps (generally) and studies have proven the effect of the pesticides and the bacteria on the lobster population. As for the clams, i dont believe clam numbers are down that much, but i could be mistaken... This. The mosquito spray killed the lobsters. They are starting to make a comeback now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I am really depressed. Lets all root for a HECS in February Good thing you work at a pharmacy and have access to meds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Well, this winter we still have the thunder and lightening. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You should see what the water temps have done to the lobster and sea clam population here. It just droped below 50 here a weak ago about a month late The bay hasn't freezed over since 93'.....a long time. PS. A lot of thunder now....... crazy Excellent example of what I was writing about. In fact, lobster was one of the specific examples I was thinking about when I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I am really depressed. Lets all root for a HECS in February Can we wait till after the Super Bowl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You know it's bad when you haven't seen Isotherm or Earthlight post anything in the "Evidence Mounting for Global Pattern Shift" thread for a week. Hailstorm, as John correctly noted, the pattern is changing, and the ++AO regime is over, but until we get some consistent help from the north atlantic, it's going to be difficult to combat a falling PNA. We'll see a cold north/warm south temp gradient the next 10 days which may provide some overrunning chances, but it doesn't appear we'll see any deep troughs into the East which would be favorable for bigger storms. Still - it's a better pattern than the one we've been in, but it's not great either. A major change is the amount of true arctic air on the map, just north of the Canadian-US border. Issue is, with a -AO and -PNA, trough amplification into the East is difficult. It's going to be more of the W-E nature, which can be good for folks north of us but I'm unsure re our area. Anyway, I made a post in the main thread on reasons for this disaster...as always I think it's worthwhile to learn for the future.. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31809-possible-reasons-for-the-strong-vortex-event-of-nov-dec-2011/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Thunder rain is not the same as thunder snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Really? the Great South Bay froze Jan 04 for sure. Other then that I agree thats the one big ticket item missing without extreme cold the freezing of the local waters. I can remember ice skating as kid on frozen ponds in Nassau in the 80s many times, I also remember being able to safely walk across the canals in 94. I cant even imagine what the freezing was like in a winter like say 34 when it was below zero on multiple nights in a row. Rummer has it people used to drive across the gsb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Thunderstorms..lol.it's already the spring of 2012..I am looking at it that way now,without of course baseball to watch..I'm not expecting anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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