IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 6z DGEX has single digits for western zones next week and below zero lows for much of western New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 GFS seems to really be hinting at a big cold shot for the whole US in the 10-14 day timeframe. It has been showing it for the past few runs now consistently which is nice. Does anyone feel like the GFS does this routine all the time. 1. Shows Cold in the long range. 2. Consistently shows cold for several runs. 3. Then the ONE run where it changes to warm instead, it will lock into that idea instead and just keep on showing warm. I feel like it does this every freaking time which is why it's so hard to even get somewhat excited about the long range cold its advertising. For example, like this extreme cold shot coming up. For several runs the GFS had this cold shot for next week, but when it started moving out it had another trough coming right through which kept us cold. Now the GFS changes its tune for one run and instead torches us the second this trough moves out next week and now it locks onto that. I don't know. Sorry for my rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 What good is the cold though if it's not going to snow? If you love cold air that much, you probably should move outside the New York City area. Preferably to Minnesota or Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 That's why looking at the GFS past day 7 is pretty much useless. Even if you use it to get a general sense of what type of pattern we might see it's barely even good for that. I like Bluewaves thread stating we will likely see an above normal January, though closer to normal than December. There's just nothing right now that looks like sustained cold and certainly nothing that looks stormy. Though things can pop up a few days out so I'm not giving up hope that we can see some snow before midmonth. GFS seems to really be hinting at a big cold shot for the whole US in the 10-14 day timeframe. It has been showing it for the past few runs now consistently which is nice. Does anyone feel like the GFS does this routine all the time. 1. Shows Cold in the long range. 2. Consistently shows cold for several runs. 3. Then the ONE run where it changes to warm instead, it will lock into that idea instead and just keep on showing warm. I feel like it does this every freaking time which is why it's so hard to even get somewhat excited about the long range cold its advertising. For example, like this extreme cold shot coming up. For several runs the GFS had this cold shot for next week, but when it started moving out it had another trough coming right through which kept us cold. Now the GFS changes its tune for one run and instead torches us the second this trough moves out next week and now it locks onto that. I don't know. Sorry for my rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The cold doesnt hold without any blocking--so it's a 1-2 deal and back to the warmth...that's why the GFS sees warmth right around the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The cold doesnt hold without any blocking--so it's a 1-2 deal and back to the warmth...that's why the GFS sees warmth right around the corner Next week's cold snap is a little bit better then what we've had though. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday all have a chance to stay below freezing. Especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday morning lows have a chance to be in the low teens for the coast and single digits away from the city. But its still transient as we dont have any blocking and the Pacific is also terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Man this winters gonna blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 It has a chance but my hunch is as we get closer the models will back off a bit. Wouldn't surprise me if we were back up into the mid or upper 30s Thursday. Even 97-98 which had a fairly normal December had a mini arctic outbreak around new Years. It was one of the coldest New Year's Eves I can remember. But like 3 days later we were in the 60s and even hit 70. I'm not comparing that 2 as I know that was a huge el nino year, but that cold snap meant nothing in the grand scheme of things (I think we only dropped below freezing 10x that January which is nuts) Next week's cold snap is a little bit better then what we've had though. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday all have a chance to stay below freezing. Especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday morning lows have a chance to be in the low teens for the coast and single digits away from the city. But its still transient as we dont have any blocking and the Pacific is also terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 It has a chance but my hunch is as we get closer the models will back off a bit. Wouldn't surprise me if we were back up into the mid or upper 30s Thursday. Even 97-98 which had a fairly normal December had a mini arctic outbreak around new Years. It was one of the coldest New Year's Eves I can remember. But like 3 days later we were in the 60s and even hit 70. I'm not comparing that 2 as I know that was a huge el nino year, but that cold snap meant nothing in the grand scheme of things (I think we only dropped below freezing 10x that January which is nuts) At this point, I'd welcome 60's and 70's. No point of these annoying transient cold shots followed by 40's and 50's. Might as well torch us and bring us into the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 At this point I would rather have 60's and 70's than cold and dry. Give me snow or give me Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I highly doubt that will happen. We'll probably get a nice pattern flip in March and have a cold miserable spring. At this point I would rather have 60's and 70's than cold and dry. Give me snow or give me Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Wasn't implying it would happen, we're not that lucky. Instead we'll be forced to live through miserable cold and dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 At this point I would rather have 60's and 70's than cold and dry. Give me snow or give me Spring. I'm with you on that. I hate dry and bitter cold weather. I'd rather it be warm at least so people can go outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I just did a comparison between October's which recorded a trace or more of snowfall in October at Central Park and how the rest of that winter turned out. Years with recorded snowfall 1876-77 = 0.5" - Seasonal Total = 40.4" (Featured a big January 20.5" and 12.4" in December) 1925-26 = 0.8" - Seasonal Total = 32.4" (Virtually snowless winter outside of 26.3" in February) 1926-27 = T - Seasonal Total = 22.3" (Average winter spread out) 1928-29 = T - Seasonal Total = 13.8" (9.3" in February and thats about it) 1929-30 = T - Seasonal Total = 13.6" (6.3" in February and meh winter overall) 1934-35 = T - Seasonal Total = 33.8" (23.6" in January) 1936-37 = T - Seasonal Total = 15.6" (meh winter, no big storms) 1937-38 = T - Seasonal Total = 15.1" (really bad winter, 15.1" spread out) 1940-41 = T - Seasonal Total = 39.0" (19.2" in March) 1944-45 = T - Seasonal Total = 27.1" (Nice winter, 12.3" in January and 8.1" in February) 1952-53 = 0.5" - Seasonal Total = 15.1" (Outside of 7.5" in December, winter sucked) 1960-61 = T - Seasonal Total = 54.7" (Big December, January and February) 1962-63 = T - Seasonal Total = 16.3" (no big storms) 1965-66 = T - Seasonal Total = 21.4" (average winter) 1972-73 = T - Seasonal Total = 2.8" (2011-2012 redux)?? 1979-80 = T - Seasonal Total = 12.8" (meh winter) 2000-01 = T - Seasonal Total = 35.0" (cleaned up in December, January and February) 2002-03 = T - Seasonal Total = 49.3" (great winter, featured PDII) 2011-12 = 2.9" - Seasonal Total = 2.9" and counting Conclusion = There seems to be no direct relationship between October measurable snowfalls at Central Park and seasonal snowfall totals. Of the 3 prior winters when at least 0.5" was recorded, Central Park received above average seasonal totals twice. If anybody has more information regarding the NAO state in 1876-77, 1925-26 and 1952-53 I would appreciate it. One interesting note, the highest ever recorded November snowfall was 4.7" in 1989-90. The seasonal total for that winter was only 13.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I just did a comparison between October's which recorded a trace or more of snowfall in October at Central Park and how the rest of that winter turned out. Years with recorded snowfall 1876-77 = 0.5" - Seasonal Total = 40.4" (Featured a big January 20.5" and 12.4" in December) 1925-26 = 0.8" - Seasonal Total = 32.4" (Virtually snowless winter outside of 26.3" in February) 1926-27 = T - Seasonal Total = 22.3" (Average winter spread out) 1928-29 = T - Seasonal Total = 13.8" (9.3" in February and thats about it) 1929-30 = T - Seasonal Total = 13.6" (6.3" in February and meh winter overall) 1934-35 = T - Seasonal Total = 33.8" (23.6" in January) 1936-37 = T - Seasonal Total = 15.6" (meh winter, no big storms) 1937-38 = T - Seasonal Total = 15.1" (really bad winter, 15.1" spread out) 1940-41 = T - Seasonal Total = 39.0" (19.2" in March) 1944-45 = T - Seasonal Total = 27.1" (Nice winter, 12.3" in January and 8.1" in February) 1952-53 = 0.5" - Seasonal Total = 15.1" (Outside of 7.5" in December, winter sucked) 1960-61 = T - Seasonal Total = 54.7" (Big December, January and February) 1962-63 = T - Seasonal Total = 16.3" (no big storms) 1965-66 = T - Seasonal Total = 21.4" (average winter) 1972-73 = T - Seasonal Total = 2.8" (2011-2012 redux)?? 1979-80 = T - Seasonal Total = 12.8" (meh winter) 2000-01 = T - Seasonal Total = 35.0" (cleaned up in December, January and February) 2002-03 = T - Seasonal Total = 49.3" (great winter, featured PDII) 2011-12 = 2.9" - Seasonal Total = 2.9" and counting Conclusion = There seems to be no direct relationship between October measurable snowfalls at Central Park and seasonal snowfall totals. Of the 3 prior winters when at least 0.5" was recorded, Central Park received above average seasonal totals twice. If anybody has more information regarding the NAO state in 1876-77, 1925-26 and 1952-53 I would appreciate it. One interesting note, the highest ever recorded November snowfall was 4.7" in 1989-90. The seasonal total for that winter was only 13.4". I think i remember that storm when i was 5...thanksgiving time right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Yeah I'd say there's much more of a correlation between December and the rest of the winter. Particularly those that were warm and/or snowless. The 2 winters that come to mind for me are 86-87 and 04-05. Both had fairly mundane Decembers though 2004 was quite chilly. Both featured major snow events on January 22nd and had good Februarys as well leading to normal or above normal snowfall for the winter. Unfortunately this winter is looking more like 98-99, 99-00 or 06-07. I just did a comparison between October's which recorded a trace or more of snowfall in October at Central Park and how the rest of that winter turned out. Years with recorded snowfall 1876-77 = 0.5" - Seasonal Total = 40.4" (Featured a big January 20.5" and 12.4" in December) 1925-26 = 0.8" - Seasonal Total = 32.4" (Virtually snowless winter outside of 26.3" in February) 1926-27 = T - Seasonal Total = 22.3" (Average winter spread out) 1928-29 = T - Seasonal Total = 13.8" (9.3" in February and thats about it) 1929-30 = T - Seasonal Total = 13.6" (6.3" in February and meh winter overall) 1934-35 = T - Seasonal Total = 33.8" (23.6" in January) 1936-37 = T - Seasonal Total = 15.6" (meh winter, no big storms) 1937-38 = T - Seasonal Total = 15.1" (really bad winter, 15.1" spread out) 1940-41 = T - Seasonal Total = 39.0" (19.2" in March) 1944-45 = T - Seasonal Total = 27.1" (Nice winter, 12.3" in January and 8.1" in February) 1952-53 = 0.5" - Seasonal Total = 15.1" (Outside of 7.5" in December, winter sucked) 1960-61 = T - Seasonal Total = 54.7" (Big December, January and February) 1962-63 = T - Seasonal Total = 16.3" (no big storms) 1965-66 = T - Seasonal Total = 21.4" (average winter) 1972-73 = T - Seasonal Total = 2.8" (2011-2012 redux)?? 1979-80 = T - Seasonal Total = 12.8" (meh winter) 2000-01 = T - Seasonal Total = 35.0" (cleaned up in December, January and February) 2002-03 = T - Seasonal Total = 49.3" (great winter, featured PDII) 2011-12 = 2.9" - Seasonal Total = 2.9" and counting Conclusion = There seems to be no direct relationship between October measurable snowfalls at Central Park and seasonal snowfall totals. Of the 3 prior winters when at least 0.5" was recorded, Central Park received above average seasonal totals twice. If anybody has more information regarding the NAO state in 1876-77, 1925-26 and 1952-53 I would appreciate it. One interesting note, the highest ever recorded November snowfall was 4.7" in 1989-90. The seasonal total for that winter was only 13.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 One interesting note, the highest ever recorded November snowfall was 4.7" in 1989-90. The seasonal total for that winter was only 13.4". All these November's topped the 1989 total at KNYC / Central Park: 19.0 1898 14.0 1882 12.8 1938 6.3 1892 5.0 1896 4.7 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31458-the-9th-annual-weenie-of-the-year-championship-round/page__st__105 Biggest weenie vote is tied...support the north! CT blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Well it looks like the only thing that we have to look forward is to the snow showers from the arctic front on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Long range GFS tries to dip the jet stream further south, but who knows if it will actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Long range GFS tries to dip the jet stream further south, but who knows if it will actually happen. C.B. posted that at 2400 the GFS shows a huge SE ridge with temps near 80.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 C.B. posted that at 2400 the GFS shows a huge SE ridge with temps near 80.... Worst winter in history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 don't let a southerner win weenie of the year. vote for ct blizz today -- he deserves it!! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31458-the-9th-annual-weenie-of-the-year-championship-round/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 don't let a southerner win weenie of the year. vote for ct blizz today -- he deserves it!! http://www.americanw...pionship-round/ I already did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 don't let a southerner win weenie of the year. vote for ct blizz today -- he deserves it!! http://www.americanw...pionship-round/ gotta love those traditional rivalries...revenge for Fort Sumter...CTblizz winning weenie of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I voted for CTBlizz, can't let the South get Weenie of the Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Just stopping by to urge the good people of NYC and surrounding environs to do your civic duty. Vote Rev Kev today! Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I see nothing special about that guy Brick Tamland.. His post resemble 50% of the posters from the north. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 yawn over WOTY, it was more fun when people were ashamed of this and didn't campaign, since when is it a good thing to be a weenie? and blizz, lol, come on, its all an act. Look at anthony, he is a real weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 yawn over WOTY, it was more fun when people were ashamed of this and didn't campaign, since when is it a good thing to be a weenie? and blizz, lol, come on, its all an act. Look at anthony, he is a real weenie. what else is there to do during this non-winter??? Track the 384 hr GFS in search of that 1 inch snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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