Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The problem is they are always looking for something in order to be the first to say... See I told you it was coming! Sometimes the pattern just is what it is and maybe this is one of those winters where we just don't get a true change to cold and snowy, at least not over a long period. Doesn't mean we cant squeeze out a decent snow or two. I'm frankly tired of hearing about a pattern change at this point. Even JB posts today" The flip has flopped" and now pins his hopes for a pattern change into Feb...pretty much what he did in 01-02 and other warm winters-never sees the writing on the wall.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Anthony hate to say it,but this is not the year..it's a 01-02 repeat..I see nothing in the long range to show otherwise..usually I'm optimistic,but man this has been the worst I am starting to think that. A lot of people were optismitic about the pattern change because of the warming going on. I don't think that is going to help us change the pattern. Sure the AO is going negative and the vortex is breaking but the NAO and PNA are going to be unfavorable for our area. Maybe February will be a better month, who knows. When was the last time NYC had 0 inches of snow in a winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lets hope for a freak storm like the Feb 2006 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I am starting to think that. A lot of people were optismitic about the pattern change because of the warming going on. I don't think that is going to help us change the pattern. Sure the AO is going negative and the vortex is breaking but the NAO and PNA are going to be unfavorable for our area. Maybe February will be a better month, who knows. When was the last time NYC had 0 inches of snow in a winter? The location of the block and ridging for the -AO is in a horrible place for us. It doesn't help us at all if the block ends up over Siberia and the NAO is still allowed to rage positive. The SE Ridge still has free reign, and it will be easy for the cold regime to our north to break down sooner rather than later. The only thing I can see this accomplishing is actual cold air shots behind our cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The whole stratospheric warming thing is vastly over-rated and over discussed--it's a buzzword the last 2 winters-but I think HM or someone said that it's rare and the hardest way to get a good setup around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the story of the 11-12 winter..and btw that is a strong EL NINO map..I just don't understand why this winter has been brutal, and why it's behaving like a strong el nino..but that's weather..we will get em next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Oh how i would love for that to verify if its not gonna snow i dont want cold if its not gonna snow so ill take the warm weather please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the problem stems back to how spoiled most of us have been over the past couple winters.....KU after KU raises our expectations. so if this winter does end up being a dud like it has been so far. at least mother nature has taught us humility. and next winter, there would only be one way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Probably time to give up for sure. Even the clipper is gone on the gfs, probably seasonable temps next week and than a major warm up. I fear that the only thing this winter will be going against is the title for the worst winter ever with 2001-2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the story of the 11-12 winter..and btw that is a strong EL NINO map..I just don't understand why this winter has been brutal, and why it's behaving like a strong el nino..but that's weather..we will get em next winter I don't get it either. The SOI is tanking and it looks like the La Nina will be near neutral soon. The NAO and AO are really screwing us up. Oh how i would love for that to verify if its not gonna snow i dont want cold if its not gonna snow so ill take the warm weather please BBQ in January? the problem stems back to how spoiled most of us have been over the past couple winters.....KU after KU raises our expectations. so if this winter does end up being a dud like it has been so far. at least mother nature has taught us humility. and next winter, there would only be one way to go. I hope we get an El Nino next winter. Probably time to give up for sure. Even the clipper is gone on the gfs, probably seasonable temps next week and than a major warm up. I fear that the only thing this winter will be going against is the title for the worst winter ever with 2001-2002. Well we still have February and March to get through. I doubt we will see 20 or even 30 inches of snow this winter. But one storm can get us to 20 inches. I think we will end up with 10-20 inches of snow for the area ( hopefully ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If that warmth verifies than i will have a bbq snow88. Ill even open the pool but since it collapsed during last years "snowpacalypse" ill just have a slip and slide lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If that warmth verifies than i will have a bbq snow88. Ill even open the pool but since it collapsed during last years "snowpacalypse" ill just have a slip and slide lol it will verify--the warmth always verifies this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 it will verify--the warmth always verifies this year Yea we get the cold to bust but if the models show warmth/rain its almost always right this year lol we cant even buy a break even if we tried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If that warmth verifies than i will have a bbq snow88. Ill even open the pool but since it collapsed during last years "snowpacalypse" ill just have a slip and slide lol GTG at your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Its good we didnt start a storm thread for the clipper. Would've been a 6 hour thread about nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Its good we didnt start a storm thread for the clipper. Would've been a 6 hour thread about nothing. Lol what a disaster this winter is. We cant even count on getting an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the writing was on the wall in november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Right. It would be a lot worse than if this was an 07-08 where we would watch heavy snows pound areas just 50 miles north of us and leave us with constant 33F rain or mixed/sleet events. I think I'd prefer 07-08 over this winter. At least that was an active winter with a lot of storms to track, and a good number of them at least gave us some frozen precipitation before changing to rain. I think I ended up with about 17''. Plus the 2/22 storm was very nice. This winter there's just been nothing at all, nothing to even track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think I'd prefer 07-08 over this winter. At least that was an active winter with a lot of storms to track, and a good number of them at least gave us some frozen precipitation before changing to rain. I think I ended up with about 17''. Plus the 2/22 storm was very nice. This winter there's just been nothing at all, nothing to even track. Not me. That winter was torture. We got very little while Boston got SMASHED. I would rather have this type of winter where its torture and terrible for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 12z GFS doesn't even have the AO going negative anymore. It shows a - PNA, + AO, + NAO and + EPO. The ensembles agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMP/DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY AND HAVE SURPASSED ORIGINAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THEREFORE...UPDATED THE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY BY A FEW DEGREES...MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. Torch today out there-check this out from upton-the warmth busts even warmer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 12z GFS doesn't even have the AO going negative anymore. It shows a - PNA, + AO, + NAO and + EPO. The ensembles agree. and it will show a -AO 10 days from now only to go positive as we approach that time period--story of the winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMP/DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY AND HAVE SURPASSED ORIGINAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THEREFORE...UPDATED THE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY BY A FEW DEGREES...MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. Torch today out there-check this out from upton-the warmth busts even warmer! It's already 45 here. My forecasted high was supposed to be 42. Wouldn't be shocked to hit 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's already 45 here. My forecasted high was supposed to be 42. Wouldn't be shocked to hit 50. I'm sitting at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GTG at your house? Yea instead we'll call it the "fairwell to winter party" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm sitting at 48 I'm about to go and play baseball with my friends at the park. Nothing like playing baseball in mid January. Yea instead we'll call it the "fairwell to winter party" lol That's a depressing name for the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 12z GFS doesn't even have the AO going negative anymore. It shows a - PNA, + AO, + NAO and + EPO. The ensembles agree. YOU MEAN THE SAME PATTERN WE'VE HAD SINCE NOVEMBER THAT EVERYONE HAS BEEN TRYING TO WISHCAST AWAY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 YOU MEAN THE SAME PATTERN WE'VE HAD SINCE NOVEMBER THAT EVERYONE HAS BEEN TRYING TO WISHCAST AWAY? yes, that one! LOL--DT, JB and Steve D have looked like fools.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yea instead we'll call it the "fairwell to winter party" lol how can we say farewell to a winter that never arrived? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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