cut Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 For what it is worth, and I know his name is mud, but Henry M. from accu says in today's blog that we may see "the greatest turnarounds in the winter pattern we have seen in a long time". That seems to join a growing number of people around here. I guess Strato-warming may be a real indicator of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Piers Corbyn is calling for a massive snowstorm in the northeast from January 11-14. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obLq_klpM1w This guy nailed our blizzard last year a few months out. He he does it again, he will be #1 of all times!..Thanks snow88 for this encouraging bit of info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This guy nailed our blizzard last year a few months out. He he does it again, he will be #1 of all times!..Thanks snow88 for this encouraging bit of info! He also nailed Hurricane Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 For what it is worth, and I know his name is mud, but Henry M. from accu says in today's blog that we may see "the greatest turnarounds in the winter pattern we have seen in a long time". That seems to join a growing number of people around here. I guess Strato-warming may be a real indicator of something. i will say henry m is nowhere near the spin as jb. for that id believe henry m over jb anyday not saying hes awesome but he tends to be more "accurate" if you will, though prolly not the best. "the greatest turnaround in the winter pattern we have seen in a long time" is quite a statement that would require us to have an absolute wholesale change at our high latitudes for us to have that statement to have a chance at verifying. baby steps have been shown lately on the models the past few days but as far as right now out to 360 hrs. a drastic turnaround isnt even in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 l but as far as right now out to 360 hrs. a drastic turnaround isnt even in the cards If the models are correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 gfs has a massive storm in the jan 11-14 range but it cuts up the lakes, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 If the models are correct! even if it did change we may only start to see the signs till late month or later than that. soon it may be february to have a chance at getting a good size storm or even snow around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This guy nailed our blizzard last year a few months out. He he does it again, he will be #1 of all times!..Thanks snow88 for this encouraging bit of info! He also called for several snow events this December which never even came close. Amazing to me how weenies only count the hits, but never the misses. The guy is awful but has built a name because of his outlandish calls and there will always be weenies out there quoting him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Ruggie Ruggie should stick to plumbing. Hopefully he's better at that than forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Piers Corbyn is calling for a massive snowstorm in the northeast from January 11-14. I'm sure some kid in Rumania with a web site is calling for a snowstorm here next month. Surprised you haven't quoted him yet. Jeese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Ruggie should stick to plumbing. Hopefully he's better at that than forecasting. So whats your predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This guy nailed our blizzard last year a few months out. He he does it again, he will be #1 of all times!..Thanks snow88 for this encouraging bit of info! This guy is very well know and popular in Europe. I've seen him being interviewed on a few news channels here in the states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 So whats your predictions? Ok let me see your point. If you don't make a prediction, you can't point out how bad the predictions of others are? Wow; great logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I'm sure some kid in Rumania with a web site is calling for a snowstorm here next month. Surprised you haven't quoted him yet. Jeese. jeese this guy actually sounds like a dope haha. this must be jb's father Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This guy is very well know and popular in Europe. I've seen him being interviewed on a few news channels here in the states. Well known? --- yes. Popular? -- yes, among many. Accurate? -- no. He's the UK version of JB. Makes outlandish calls; once in a while gets one right; most of the time he's way wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 He also called for several snow events this December which never even came close. Amazing to me how weenies only count the hits, but never the misses. The guy is awful but has built a name because of his outlandish calls and there will always be weenies out there quoting him. source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Well known? --- yes. Popular? -- yes, among many. Accurate? -- no. He's the UK version of JB. Makes outlandish calls; once in a while gets one right; most of the time he's way wrong. Ok, now we know who are the terrible guys. Tell us, who is better and why. Can't wait to hear this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The only reason why I am up at this appalling hour is that I want to see if some flakes fall from the sky. This is really awful how snow deprived everyone is on all of the weather forums. Everyone seems extra moody and depressed in the NYC region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 i find it fascinating yet disturbing how we cant even get a fantasy snowstorm on models anymore.. That proves right there that the pattern is highly unfavorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Gfs and euro are friggin horrible in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 You know it's bad when you haven't seen Isotherm post for more than 3 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 Gfs and euro are friggin horrible in the long range You know it's bad when you haven't seen Isotherm post for more than 3 days... agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Gfs and euro are friggin horrible in the long range The Euro has been dead on not moving that AK Vortex, the GFS however for the last 10-14 days has continually been trying to get rid of it. That leads me to believe to an extent that it may be vacating some time in the next 3-4 weeks but who the hell knows exactly when. I'm starting to believe we may very well see a 180 degree depiction of the past 2 winters with a sharp pattern change occurring some time in early February and then continuing on through March, the difference will be this year we'll be going the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The Euro has been dead on not moving that AK Vortex, the GFS however for the last 10-14 days has continually been trying to get rid of it. That leads me to believe to an extent that it may be vacating some time in the next 3-4 weeks but who the hell knows exactly when. I'm starting to believe we may very well see a 180 degree depiction of the past 2 winters with a sharp pattern change occurring some time in early February and then continuing on through March, the difference will be this year we'll be going the other direction. I was just thinking about that last night that if the pattern were to change for a more favorable winter weather pattern we may not feel the effects until early february the earliest. January is already starting with little or no hope for winter weather in the northeast save for a few minor events possibly. That alaskan vortex must disappear first and the nao/ao atleast get close to nuetral/negative to get a good storm chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 At this point we won't get a snowstorm until the snow will melt it in 2 days, so as weather fanatics we should, at this point just hope for a snowless winter because at this point it is just becoming comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The Euro has been dead on not moving that AK Vortex, the GFS however for the last 10-14 days has continually been trying to get rid of it. That leads me to believe to an extent that it may be vacating some time in the next 3-4 weeks but who the hell knows exactly when. I'm starting to believe we may very well see a 180 degree depiction of the past 2 winters with a sharp pattern change occurring some time in early February and then continuing on through March, the difference will be this year we'll be going the other direction. You may very well be right. The interesting element in all this for me is how bad many (most?) winter outlooks have been for the northeast. Without specifically naming who or what said what, many called for an early start to winter. Later, the inevitable "delayed but not denied" comments started creeping in, along with a host of "experts" (who were already wrong in their initial calls) steadfastly and confidently forecasting the onset of the major pattern change to a colder regime, followed later again by delays, explanations, and so on. So many went from a cold November, to a delay to a cold December, to a delay to a cold January, to what appears likely to be a delay to a cold February, all the while professing the accuracy and value of long range forecasting. Yeah, right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 We still have the whole month of January . I do think that the pattern will most likely change for good towards the 2nd half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The 6z GFS appears to have rain up around James Bay at Hour 216...which one doesn't see very often on a January weather map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Now basically an absolute certainty this will crack the top 5 warmest Decembers on record at KNYC; the current 5 on the list are 1982, 1984, 1998, 2001, and 2006... The post- December 1982 winter saw, on January 15, 1983, WSW's issued for NYC...but the questionable computer guidance of the period didn't account for a few odd factors...and the storm brought just an inch of slush to NYC...though nearly 2 feet to the Berkshires and Albany... February 6, 1983 featured a major Noreaster...but it hugged the coast a bit too much...with the Low passing close to Kennedy Airport and turning 2 to 5 inches of snow into miserable slop...and once again burying Albany...this time with 16 inches and about the same in Worcester. Then the Blizzard struck on Friday afternoon...2/11...unquestionably the area's premier snowstorm between 1979 and 1995. March was quiet, but on April 19, 1983, another Low formed near Hatteras and brought 1 to 3 inches of snow to the NYC area...but again stayed too near the coast and eventually changed to rain...this time Albany also went over to rain...but not before adding about eight additional inches of snow to their seasonal total...this storm was a major bust in most of New England...but great for the Poconos, Catskills, and NW Jersey. After December 1984, there was a snowstorm of close to 6 inches on Long Island on 1/17/85...and another one producing around 5 inches on 2/6/85. Since 1998 is on the list, it obviously implies a bad start to winter, but in a year of eerie symmetry, a major Atlantic storm developed in late February, 1999. Even up to the day before the storm, there was considerable uncertainty as to the precise track, though the consensus was that the farther east you went, the better your chances for seeing significant snow. When the dust cleared, over a foot fell over parts of the East End (and much more over Cape Cod), but NYC was basically spared, as both NYC and JFK recorded under 2 inches. Snowfall 2/25/1999: Montauk Suffolk13.5 730 AM East Hampton Suffolk 10.0 700 AM Shinecock Suffolk 8.5 730 AM Bridgehampton Suffolk 8.5 700 AM Central Park New York 1.5 700 AM Kennedy Queens 1.0 700 AM After the excitement died down the consensus out east was that a good March could conceivably salvage the winter. On 3/14/1999 a winter storm began to bear dowm on the area. Though the highest totals with this event were generally over central L.I., (Kings Park recorded just under a foot), the East End again did very well, while the urbanization factor may have been a factor in reducing this storm's impact in NYC: Snowfall 3/15/1999: Bridgehampton: 9.0" NYC Central Park: 4.5" JFK Airport: 4.3" When things were tabulated a few weeks later, a passable winter, snow wise, had been witnessed by the Bridgehampton observer, but it was a third consecutive sub-par one for NYC. Snowfall 1998-99: Bridgehampton: 30.7" NYC Central Park: 12.7" JFK Airport: 12.3" Outside of a 5 ich snowstorm in January 2002....the 2001-02 winter can certainly claim to the worst ever. The 2006-07 winter turned very cold after MLK day....and though little snow fell...it was notable for some spectacular ice events in February and particularly March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This is such a boring pattern. The clippers we onced tracked trended well north. The cold shot next week looks dry and any storm chances we had for next week are just about gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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