CooL Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 La nina ruined the event I was following. That's how long we're waiting again. fyp lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 fyp lol La Nina is really weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 fyp lol LOL. Could be, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 When it warms up, THEN a storm comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 When it warms up, THEN a storm comes in. Long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Long range Yep, long range has changed a lot. We'll see if the CMC and especially Euro are still dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think no storm or storm/s only during the warmer periods continues to be the way to go now for yet another two weeks at least. I'm not sure on this, but as soon as the models back off of the expected pattern change, I think the odds are they are correct. I think barring major changes of several of the better models back to the colder/blockier pattern change idea, there is an increasing probability that we go through this entire month with less than an inch of snow in NYC. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think no storm or storm/s only during the warmer periods continues to be the way to go now for yet another two weeks at least. I'm not sure on this, but as soon as the models back off of the expected pattern change, I think the odds are they are correct. I think barring major changes of several of the better models back to the colder/blockier pattern change idea, there is an increasing probability that we go through this entire month with less than an inch of snow in NYC. WX/PT Snow88 will likely cry after he sees this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think no storm or storm/s only during the warmer periods continues to be the way to go now for yet another two weeks at least. I'm not sure on this, but as soon as the models back off of the expected pattern change, I think the odds are they are correct. I think barring major changes of several of the better models back to the colder/blockier pattern change idea, there is an increasing probability that we go through this entire month with less than an inch of snow in NYC. WX/PT But they change from run to run, not locking onto anything long range. In fact, medium range with cold seems to be the sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like our pattern change may not come at all...Epic fail of a winter on our hands boys, this one is for the record books! Not a snowflake in 3 straight months, has that ever happened before Nov-Jan?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like our pattern change may not come at all...Epic fail of a winter on our hands boys, this one is for the record books! Not a snowflake in 3 straight months, has that ever happened before Nov-Jan?? i saw flakes in dix hills last week.. It lasted 5 minutes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Upton going with 2-3" for Orange County.. ( Time Sensitive) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Upton going with 2-3" for Orange County.. ( Time Sensitive) http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php your not getting 2-3 inches, snow growth is miserable and the warm punch is prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 your not getting 2-3 inches, snow growth is miserable and the warm punch is prolific. We will all probably start with a short period of sleet/snow/rain mix but quickly change to a cold rain. His area might hold on to the sleet/snow mix for a little longer but 2"-3" is pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How come no recent posts in the stratospheric warming thread or the pattern change thread. Has everyone thrown in the towel? Looked at the forecast for southern vermont this week/weekend, rain this week, then ice cold weekend...epic fail. I will be watching Giants destroy packers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 your not getting 2-3 inches, snow growth is miserable and the warm punch is prolific. Friday is now looking interesting for up here as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 your not getting 2-3 inches, snow growth is miserable and the warm punch is prolific. Ill take whatever I can get.. GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTER IS S/E OF THE OPERATIONALS...SO AN EWD TREND OF THE SFC LOW IS POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE RUNS. 00Z RAOBS INDICATE -4C AT KMAF. 12/00Z ECMWF RUNS WERE TOO WARM AT THAT LVL. WITH THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO STAY ALONG OR S OF LI...NLY COMPONENT LLVL FLOW GETS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ALLOWING FOR THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO BE REINFORCED FROM THE BROAD 1025 HIGH ACROSS ERN CANADA. FCST THEREFORE INDICATES RAIN SPREADING NWD INTO THE CWA WED NGT ALONG THE COAST...WITH SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH THE H85 LOW TRACKING THRU THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONLY GO UP TO 2-4C. FCST TRANSITIONS THE SNOW TO A SLEET AND FZRA MIX INTO THU...ENDING AS ALL RAIN. LATEST ACCUMULATION FCST POSTED TO THE WEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ill take whatever I can get.. GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTER IS S/E OF THE OPERATIONALS...SO AN EWD TREND OF THE SFC LOW IS POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE RUNS. 00Z RAOBS INDICATE -4C AT KMAF. 12/00Z ECMWF RUNS WERE TOO WARM AT THAT LVL. WITH THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO STAY ALONG OR S OF LI...NLY COMPONENT LLVL FLOW GETS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ALLOWING FOR THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO BE REINFORCED FROM THE BROAD 1025 HIGH ACROSS ERN CANADA. FCST THEREFORE INDICATES RAIN SPREADING NWD INTO THE CWA WED NGT ALONG THE COAST...WITH SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH THE H85 LOW TRACKING THRU THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONLY GO UP TO 2-4C. FCST TRANSITIONS THE SNOW TO A SLEET AND FZRA MIX INTO THU...ENDING AS ALL RAIN. LATEST ACCUMULATION FCST POSTED TO THE WEB. The models are slowly bumping north and west. By tomorrow, wouldnt be surprised if the sfc low track is on top of or west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We will all probably start with a short period of sleet/snow/rain mix but quickly change to a cold rain. His area might hold on to the sleet/snow mix for a little longer but 2"-3" is pushing it. I think frozen is off the table for you and earthight now. I may get 5 ice pellets, thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F10%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=075&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Looks interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Looks interesting... current temps, previous precip. All rain for anyone around the local area, n and w may get something, but this will trend warmer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Looks interesting... Precip falls before its cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Snow88 will likely cry after he sees this post. Not really. I am still going to be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 AO is about to tumble http://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_ext_ao_bias.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Not really. I am still going to be optimistic. Realistically you have until 2/20 (President's Day) until climo begins to become unfavorable. That's about 40 more days of solid snow season. Not that it cann't snow after that date, but the sun angle starts becoming an issue and cold air in general starts becoming an issue. We can still pull off a solid 4-6 week period of snow but I would start getting worried if by February first a pattern change is still nowhere in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Realistically you have until 2/20 (President's Day) until climo begins to become unfavorable. That's about 40 more days of solid snow season. Not that it cann't snow after that date, but the sun angle starts becoming an issue and cold air in general starts becoming an issue. We can still pull off a solid 4-6 week period of snow but I would start getting worried if by February first a pattern change is still nowhere in sight. WHAT? Minimum first week of March. We have had plenty of storms after presidents day. Please..... and the sun angle argument has been debunked time and time again. If it snow hard enough it sticks. Go back to crying about your floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Realistically you have until 2/20 (President's Day) until climo begins to become unfavorable. That's about 40 more days of solid snow season. Not that it cann't snow after that date, but the sun angle starts becoming an issue and cold air in general starts becoming an issue. We can still pull off a solid 4-6 week period of snow but I would start getting worried if by February first a pattern change is still nowhere in sight. For me, it's the first week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Realistically you have until 2/20 (President's Day) until climo begins to become unfavorable. That's about 40 more days of solid snow season. Not that it cann't snow after that date, but the sun angle starts becoming an issue and cold air in general starts becoming an issue. We can still pull off a solid 4-6 week period of snow but I would start getting worried if by February first a pattern change is still nowhere in sight. sun angle only means something for light to maybe moderate events. a big dump, it doesn't matter. The Oct storm accumulated here at 12pm since it was coming down heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 sun angle only means something for light to maybe moderate events. a big dump, it doesn't matter. The Oct storm accumulated here at 12pm since it was coming down heavy end of october sun angle is just like february i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 But the sun angle starts becoming an issue and cold air in general starts becoming an issue. We can still pull off a solid 4-6 week period of snow but I would start getting worried if by February first a pattern change is still nowhere in sight. Not the sun angle thing again. Like Trials and Brian just said, if it snows hard, it will stick. We have seen storms in March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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