SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Piers Corbyn Yeah that's it. Interestingly enough the gfs lines up a storm near that time frame so I'm def interested. For the first time this winter, we actually have a nice cold air mass in place instead of waiting for the cold to catch up with a storm or a fleeting cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Very tight gradient on the 850 mb temps, just 10-50 miles north of the 0 degree line is the -2 degree line. Yeah, and what could become nasty is if the 850 mb temperature trended warmer and the surface temperatures remained the same. That would be a nasty ice storm for us, because it wouldn't take much to bring the 850 mb temperatures warmer than ideal on the 18z DGEX with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 No one posted the 18z DGEX in the Banter Thread? It shows a nice storm for the area in the 15th-17th timeframe. It looks to come in two parts, with the second one being colder than the first part. 850s and Surface Temperatures are cold enough for the northern half of NJ, but the thicknesses are at 546, which is marginal, at best for snow. Could this be IP or ZR? The second wave is colder at the 1000-500 mb thicknesses, and would likely support snow. And the DGEX once again regains its title as the king of fantasy storms... When the 12z or 0z GFS runs show a snowstorm, the DGEX in some cases seems to take them and exaggerate it even more. Then the GFS comes back with a storm that appears to imitate in appearance the 12/26/10 blizzard on the models at the time that it was expected to go OTS, except for that the entire set up is different: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah, and what could become nasty is if the 850 mb temperature trended warmer and the surface temperatures remained the same. That would be a nasty ice storm for us, because it wouldn't take much to bring the 850 mb temperatures warmer than ideal on the 18z DGEX with this storm. Right. No use stressing about it though, we're still almost a week away. Still, Accuweather has practically guaranteed no major snowstorms until the last week of January, and it would be nice to prove them wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Right. No use stressing about it though, we're still almost a week away. Still, Accuweather has practically guaranteed no major snowstorms until the last week of January, and it would be nice to prove them wrong. To say that there will be NO major snows like Accuweather said is definitely a bit irrational, because as we have seen with weather, anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Then the GFS comes back with a storm that appears to imitate in appearance the 12/26/10 blizzard on the models at the time that it was expected to go OTS, except for that the entire set up is different: The GFS was VERY close to producing something big here, and with an improving pattern and a cold air mass already in place, this storm definitely needs to be watched. The 00z runs should be REALLY interesting for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GFS was VERY close to producing something big here, and with an improving pattern and a cold air mass already in place, this storm definitely needs to be watched. The 00z runs should be REALLY interesting for this storm. If they even show the same solution. Each of the last 3 runs showed something noticeably different, a clear sign that the GFS is still having issues handling the set up in this time frame, and will likely show a different solution again with its 0z run. The only thing we can take from this at this time is that a storm is possible between Sunday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 SMH snow to coastal DE, but not here. I do have a good feeling for next week but that of course, is just for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 SMH snow to coastal DE, but not here. I do have a good feeling for next week but that of course, is just for the time being. And of course it's cold enough now, but no precip. I'm 31/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 And of course it's cold enough now, but no precip. I'm 31/24. 32 and -ZR at Cape may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The 00z runs should be REALLY interesting for this storm. Lol. Don't forget 12z tomorrow! Then the GFS comes back with a storm that appears to imitate in appearance the 12/26/10 blizzard on the models at the time that it was expected to go OTS, except for that the entire set up is different: Like every storm in the past that the GFS has out to sea at one point or another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The slides,whiteface last march closest thing to out west your going to get Sunday river has several bowls that look like this on a smaller scale, another good mountain for off piste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 map of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Was hoping to see my first flake of the winter tonight, but it looks like Monmouth County will be a bit too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Radar really lighting up down by AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Was hoping to see my first flake of the winter tonight, but it looks like Monmouth County will be a bit too far north. Lighter band developing to the NW, will it continue to expand or not? That is our hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Lighter band developing to the NW, will it continue to expand or not? That is our hope. The best forcing/vv's look to be headed just offshore in the next couple hours, so this one appears to be over for flake chances. Radar indicates some echos about 5-6 miles east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Even DCA managed to scratch out 6/10ths of an inch of snow this afternoon...which is a solid 6/10ths of an inch more than I've measured since March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Even DCA managed to scratch out 6/10ths of an inch of snow this afternoon...which is a solid 6/10ths of an inch more than I've measured since March... Given they've penciled in nearly an inch, that has to be great news for our prospects in this pattern, given we've been averaging about 3-4X DCA snowfall the past 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 No storm on gfs. That was quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 No storm on gfs. That was quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Talk about different - nothing even ejects in this run. Fickle models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Talk about different - nothing even ejects in this run. Fickle models. Flip Flop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like an overrunning forms around hour 180, but storm pushed back again. Who knows if it even comes north enough on this run. Only out to hr. 186. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Talk about different - nothing even ejects in this run. Fickle models. that 500mb low didnt eject on its 18z run and there was still a storm..Who knows. This winter has been so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nogaps and ukmet look much colder and well south of gfs for Thursday. Probably good snow in the northern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like an overrunning forms around hour 180, but storm pushed back again. Who knows if it even comes north enough on this run. Only out to hr. 186. Nope. It stays well to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 that 500mb low didnt eject on its 18z run and there was still a storm..Who knows. This winter has been so bad Definitely all letdowns so far. Can't be too optimistic about anything, but we'll still watch knowing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Truncation ruined the event I was following. That's how long we're waiting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.