Weathergun Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Little snow before the rain? At 66hrs, GFS soundings have 950mb temps around +2.5C EWR,NYC,LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Damn this storm keeps trending colder and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 there is no frozen precip for anyone in the local nyc metro. None. Gotta get to hudson valley and up to Danbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Damn this storm keeps trending colder and colder. seasonal trend, it won't work out for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 seasonal trend, it won't work out for anyone. True true. Still fun watching this trend colder, hopefully someone can sneak some snow out of it. Anyways, GFS bringing back that storm for the weekend..hmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GFS brings a nice little disturbance after for a few hours. Maybe sneak an inch or two after the storm on Friday. This has my attention deep trough with a lot of energy, might pop something off the coast. Maybe a small minor event? Still would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This has my attention deep trough with a lot of energy, might pop something off the coast. Maybe a small minor event? Still would be nice. No other guidance really has this. Something to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 there is no frozen precip for anyone in the local nyc metro. None. Gotta get to hudson valley and up to Danbury. Big switch from 3-4 days ago when it looked like rain for all of New England and warm temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 the weenies are about to get excited about the gfs for next week, too bad that has trend warmer written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 the weenies are about to get excited about the gfs for next week, too bad that has trend warmer written all over it. Double low storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Double low storm? Which is right out of the box how you know its wrong. the two wave storms never work out. Setup is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Which is right out of the box how you know its wrong. the two wave storms never work out. Setup is horrible. 168 hours away I agree with you. 2 wave storms rarely work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 the weenies are about to get excited about the gfs for next week, too bad that has trend warmer written all over it. It's too far out to even worry about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Verbatim I like what the GFS shows and I think such a setup could produce some snow for the area. I think starting as early as day 4 we begin to see things transpire that could offer some hope. As the lp clears and trough swings into the northeast the low begins to bomb as it progresses away from the area and towards greenland. A large area of confluence is left in its wake and much colder temperatures. At the same time there is some resemblance of ridging occuring on the west coast with a shortwave in the deep sw. Other shortwaves associated with the northern stream progress over the ridge and down into the trough. If we can get the sw to eject or some energy to phase with the northern shortwave I think we can get a storm to form along the baroclinic zone and progress N and E into the cold dome situated over the northeast. I don't expect the confluence to budge much if we have some pseudo type blocking to the north and some ridging over the top of that rapidly intensifying lp. I think if this setup does occur as shown and modeled by the gfs (especially at H5) then we could realistically see some sort of overruning event. Or maybe even an overruning/secondary development off the coast. I am a huge snow lover and haven't really posted much this winter because I just haven't been enthused about anything, but the depiction at H5 and resemblance of blocking makes me believe this setup is more legitimate. Like I said though we need some energy to eject or it will all be wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 168 hours away I agree with you. 2 wave storms rarely work out. This is wrong. Sometimes they do. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GFS ensembles are even colder for Thursday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GFS ensembles are even colder for Thursday's storm. the cold trend ain't done most likely...thank God, something to track regardless of the eventual outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z GFS was an overall weenie run. Non-stop cold and snow from day 6 to 15: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z GGEM also got colder for Thursday. Looks like a pure snowstorm for much of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GFS ensembles are even colder for Thursday's storm. We have the pattern as depicted at H5 to thank for this. A large area of lp to our north with some ridging over the top of it. This prevents the waa from being as agressive and not allowing the hgts to rise as much. If the northern stream was a bit faster it could bring some more cold into the scenario, problem is it could also kick the lp out to sea. It is a very confusing setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z GFS was an overall weenie run. Non-stop cold and snow from day 6 to 15: Yea was just about to post this. Weenie run of the year so far on the gfs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yea was just about to post this. Weenie run of the year so far on the gfs lol. Go GFS! I do think there's potentiual for the start of this week's storm and after as the active pattern looks to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL, it has a low of -11F the morning of the 24th. I don't know if I've ever seen a run that cold Go GFS! I do think there's potentiual for the start of this week's storm and after as the active pattern looks to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL, it has a low of -11F the morning of the 24th. I don't know if I've ever seen a run that cold It has 850 temps as low as -26 here with a surface low of -20 on the 24th.. Highs stay well below 0 on the 24th & the 25th.. smh lol http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 gfs says winter will be back with a vengeance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Go GFS! I do think there's potentiual for the start of this week's storm and after as the active pattern looks to come back. Yea there's def potential but for the overall run im still not taking anything beyond d5-d6 serious or on any model for that matter. Imo the ensembles are the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It has 850 temps as low as -26 here with a surface low of -20 on the 24th.. Highs stay well below 0 on the 24th & the 25th.. smh lol http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KMGJ Wow...good thing this is in the banter thread...although up by you im sure -20 isnt that hard to come by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 gfs says winter will be back with a vengeance back? back implies it came and left. Winter never came yet...so winter will arrive with a vengeance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro looked better, but its still warm, and has warmed some for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 gfs says winter will be back with a vengeance its about damn time lol lets do this!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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