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2012 Winter Banter Thread


CooL

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GFS brings a nice little disturbance after for a few hours. Maybe sneak an inch or two after the storm on Friday.

This has my attention deep trough with a lot of energy, might pop something off the coast. Maybe a small minor event? Still would be nice.

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Verbatim I like what the GFS shows and I think such a setup could produce some snow for the area. I think starting as early as day 4 we begin to see things transpire that could offer some hope. As the lp clears and trough swings into the northeast the low begins to bomb as it progresses away from the area and towards greenland. A large area of confluence is left in its wake and much colder temperatures. At the same time there is some resemblance of ridging occuring on the west coast with a shortwave in the deep sw. Other shortwaves associated with the northern stream progress over the ridge and down into the trough. If we can get the sw to eject or some energy to phase with the northern shortwave I think we can get a storm to form along the baroclinic zone and progress N and E into the cold dome situated over the northeast. I don't expect the confluence to budge much if we have some pseudo type blocking to the north and some ridging over the top of that rapidly intensifying lp. I think if this setup does occur as shown and modeled by the gfs (especially at H5) then we could realistically see some sort of overruning event. Or maybe even an overruning/secondary development off the coast. I am a huge snow lover and haven't really posted much this winter because I just haven't been enthused about anything, but the depiction at H5 and resemblance of blocking makes me believe this setup is more legitimate. Like I said though we need some energy to eject or it will all be wasted.

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GFS ensembles are even colder for Thursday's storm.

We have the pattern as depicted at H5 to thank for this. A large area of lp to our north with some ridging over the top of it. This prevents the waa from being as agressive and not allowing the hgts to rise as much. If the northern stream was a bit faster it could bring some more cold into the scenario, problem is it could also kick the lp out to sea. It is a very confusing setup.

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Go GFS! I do think there's potentiual for the start of this week's storm and after as the active pattern looks to come back.

Yea there's def potential but for the overall run im still not taking anything beyond d5-d6 serious or on any model for that matter. Imo the ensembles are the way to go.

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