ag3 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yes but he keeps on saying the pattern is not going to change. I'm just telling him it will become favorable soon. We've heard about a pattern change since mid November. Until it happens, dont get excited Anthony. Even if it does change for a week, no one can foresee how long it lasts. It can easily go back in the crapper again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Exactly--still hoping for change starting next weekend, just saying that this is another lost week. This always has been a lost week. Maybe we can get lucky with some flurries tonight and maybe a front end thump with the midweek storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We've heard about a pattern change since mid November. Until it happens, dont get excited Anthony. Even if it does change for a week, no one can foresee how long it lasts. It can easily go back in the crapper again. This could very well just be the anti January thaw, as we saw in 1996 when for 2 weeks easy the pattern changed and then went right back to what it was before, mid-January pattern changes are dangerous because historically there tend to be alot of mid-winter eases in cold patterns and mid-winter cool offs during warmer ones. So you never truly know initially if its a true reversal or its temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 30s/low 40s aren't warm to me. Those are the temps after the rain on Thursday. And the 6z GFS had snow with that trough. Not sure if future runs will have it, though. 6z GFS was very promising in general. No it doesnt. It's essentially a cold front. GFS has surface temps at 50 degrees at hour 102 for the coast and mid 40's everywhere else. Precip falls before cold air seeps in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah its around the time in 2002 when we had our only real snowfall of the winter. Only to return to warm conditions for February and March. It was also very dry that year. Our last real drought in this area as we were running well below normal until August turned wet This could very well just be the anti January thaw, as we saw in 1996 when for 2 weeks easy the pattern changed and then went right back to what it was before, mid-January pattern changes are dangerous because historically there tend to be alot of mid-winter eases in cold patterns and mid-winter cool offs during warmer ones. So you never truly know initially if its a true reversal or its temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This could very well just be the anti January thaw, as we saw in 1996 when for 2 weeks easy the pattern changed and then went right back to what it was before, mid-January pattern changes are dangerous because historically there tend to be alot of mid-winter eases in cold patterns and mid-winter cool offs during warmer ones. So you never truly know initially if its a true reversal or its temporary. By the way, the 'January thaw' is an example of a 'climatic singularity'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah its around the time in 2002 when we had our only real snowfall of the winter. Only to return to warm conditions for February and March. It was also very dry that year. Our last real drought in this area as we were running well below normal until August turned wet I'm sure you know what happened during that snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Alaska http://news.yahoo.com/photos/cordova-tries-to-dig-out-from-huge-snow-dump-1326085254-slideshow/#crsl=%252Fphotos%252Fcordova-tries-to-dig-out-from-huge-snow-dump-1326085254-slideshow%252Fsaturday-jan-7-2012-photo-provided-alaska-division-photo-021434965.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah its around the time in 2002 when we had our only real snowfall of the winter. Only to return to warm conditions for February and March. It was also very dry that year. Our last real drought in this area as we were running well below normal until August turned wet Ha, well we did, but there was never anything like we likely will get from about Day 6-Day 12 or so coming up where we could average -5 or more below normal. Right now I don't think this month comes anywhere close to the top 10 warmest Januarys. 2001-2002 more or less had no cool period whatsoever, similar to 1997-98, even 94-95, 98-99, and 99-00 had decent cool periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yes but he keeps on saying the pattern is not going to change. I'm just telling him it will become favorable soon. We hope. This has been pushed back so many times I cannot keep track. And there's no guarantee that a flip to cold holds...hoping, yes, but this year obviously does not have a good track record for anyone...the whole country outside of NM has been largely snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Alaska http://news.yahoo.co...-021434965.html You know we do live in a mid-latitude location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We hope. This has been pushed back so many times I cannot keep track. And there's no guarantee that a flip to cold holds...hoping, yes, but this year obviously does not have a good track record for anyone...the whole country outside of NM has been largely snowless. This is a big disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This could very well just be the anti January thaw, as we saw in 1996 when for 2 weeks easy the pattern changed and then went right back to what it was before, mid-January pattern changes are dangerous because historically there tend to be alot of mid-winter eases in cold patterns and mid-winter cool offs during warmer ones. So you never truly know initially if its a true reversal or its temporary. good point. In the dreaded winter of 01-02 we had exactly that-a 2 week cooldown which delivered the only snow of the season for most...a 3-4 inch moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm sure you know what happened during that snowfall? The Great rule change in the NFL with that Pats-Raiders game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm sure you know what happened during that snowfall? The Tri-State got the short end of the stick, it was one of those SW flow redevelopers off the Delmarva, but it sort of acted a bit like 11/11/87 and 1/25/87 in that it hit the DC Metro relatively hard as well as SNE but it sort of underwent a downward period when it impacted this region, they got some 7-8 inch amounts down in MD and I think SNE too, we saw mainly 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Friday the 13th = Pattern change? smh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 SOI values have tanked. It looks like La Nina might be La Nada soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 SOI values have tanked. It looks like La Nina might be La Nada soon. Doesn't matter, takes the atmosphere 3 to 6 months to adjust so congrats June! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Doesn't matter, takes the atmosphere 3 to 6 months to adjust so congrats June! Yep. Dismal spring coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 SOI values have tanked. It looks like La Nina might be La Nada soon. Idk man, i was snorkeling in Maui last week and the water was freezing...i definitely felt La nina in full effect... (first time use of this emoticon on board...FTW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Idk man, i was snorkeling in Maui last week and the water was freezing...i definitely felt La nina in full effect... (first time use of this emoticon on board...FTW) SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Little snow before the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL, gfs follows the euro and burries sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL, gfs follows the euro and burries sne. It keeps on trending colder. The confluence up north is pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 looks like 6-12 for much of sne, maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 looks like 6-12 for much of sne, maybe more. I doubt it is that much but CT Blizz sees accumulating snow this run. Trending towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The EC buries us up here.. Looks like the GFS is following suit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GFS brings a nice little disturbance after for a few hours. Maybe sneak an inch or two after the storm on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The EC buried us up here.. Looks like the GFS is following suit.. you have warm wedges at 850 and 900 fly boy, caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 you have warm wedges at 850 and 900 fly boy, caution. The point was that the GFS is trending toward the euro.. The EC was mostly a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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