mattinpa Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 We all have to be patient for the pattern change. It will eventually come. I agree. It might not be sustained for the rest of the winter, but it will change enough for some snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I agree. It might not be sustained for the rest of the winter, but it will change enough for some snow chances. No offense but you and Anthony have used that exact same line since November 15th. Its now 60 days later. Until it happens, dont believe anything. Models are showing things improving for the long range, but that could easily change and an Alaskan vortex can reform and destroy everything. 10-15 days is fantasy range. A huge Alaskan storm can pop up easily in that timeframe and then we are cooked again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 No offense but you and Anthony have used that exact same line since November 15th. Its now 60 days later. Until it happens, dont believe anything. Models are showing things improving for the long range, but that could easily change and an Alaskan vortex can reform and destroy everything. 10-15 days is fantasy range. A huge Alaskan storm can pop up easily in that timeframe and then we are cooked again. We're not saying that a change is certain. Just that there have been signs of upper-latitude warming that could help, with continued troughs in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Pattern change will happen in late February and March which does us no good. And will last through April, making it a MISERABLE spring. I am golfing Saturday and all the tee times are booked. Hillarious. Real greens too, not temporary. I guarantee it won't be like in April with 40 degree temps and flooding rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I for one won't miss hearing about stratospheric warming after this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I for one won't miss hearing about stratospheric warming after this winter. it's definitely this year's most overused buzzword Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 it's definitely this year's most overused buzzword and i bet 2 or three of the 100's talking about it actually understand it and know what is about. Funny we have never seen all the talk before this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 and i bet 2 or three of the 100's talking about it actually understand it and know what is about. Funny we have never seen all the talk before this winter. I gotta be honest.. I really hadn't heard of it myself.. this wasn't something that was ever really discussed when I was in school... might be more of a climatology subject, which I didn't take, but still... It was like all of sudden I kept seeing this all over the boards and I started looking up what it meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 and i bet 2 or three of the 100's talking about it actually understand it and know what is about. Funny we have never seen all the talk before this winter. I heard JB use it last year to say that's the reason why his Jan call for warmth was going to bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 it's definitely this year's most overused buzzword transient, SSW, Vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 transient, SSW, Vortex window of opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Honestly, at this point, expect more of the same but be happy if we do get changes. We will get more cold, but unless the pattern changes, windows of opportunity will be brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 based on the end of the nam wouldnt be surprised to see the dgex show something decent today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 it's definitely this year's most overused buzzword We should make a thread or a poll based on this lol. Most overused words or phrases in the winter of 2011-2012. Some of my favorites would be: 1. Alaskan Vortex 2. lack of blocking/no blocking 3. transient cold 4. PNA ridge 5. +NAO/+AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 We should make a thread or a poll based on this lol. Most overused words or phrases in the winter of 2011-2012. Some of my favorites would be: 1. Alaskan Vortex 2. lack of blocking/no blocking 3. transient cold 4. PNA ridge 5. +NAO/+AO 6. "gradient pattern" 7. SWFE 8. Torch 9. "putrid" 10. 01-02 references Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 11. Wrong again noreaster27 12. How do i put noreaster27 on ignore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 based on the end of the nam wouldnt be surprised to see the dgex show something decent today. Drops about .25" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Drops about .25" of precip. SURFACE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Looks like surface is cold enough for most of the precip, so dgex would be snow. .25 is like a HECS based on our bad luck so far, lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'll call bust now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 SURFACE? 30's for coast and city. 32 degree line is on SWCT hour 90. And just north of there hour 96. Precip falls hour 90-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'll call bust now... it wouldn't be right if you didn't....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 it wouldn't be right if you didn't....... I'm at 100% accuracy this winter calling bust on any snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 30's for coast and city. 32 degree line is on SWCT hour 90. And just north of there hour 96. Precip falls hour 90-96. maybe a sloppy inch for DXR then and the rest of us are rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 You could argue Friday will be as quiet a weather day as you will see across the Lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm at 100% accuracy this winter calling bust on any snow threat. and you want a prize for that? call metfan, he can hook you up with some cvs coupons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 maybe a sloppy inch for DXR then and the rest of us are rain are you reading that map or making a forecast? that is snow for everyone north of Mt. Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 You could argue Friday will be as quiet a weather day as you will see across the Lower 48. Today and yesterday were pretty quiet too--Friday might be the winner since there won't even be cold air to talk about--imagine being an On camera met at TWC that day....better get the re-runs of it could happen tomorrow ready... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 are you reading that map or making a forecast? that is snow for everyone north of Mt. Earthlight Forecast...snow/rain line will trend north and west and drop less precip than modeled just like everything else this year...once we get a pattern flip, I could see a different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Forecast...snow/rain line will trend north and west and drop less precip than modeled just like everything else this year...once we get a pattern flip, I could see a different outcome. You do realize that no other model has anything even remotely close to the dgex, right? Every other model has no precip north of Virginia. None. Dgex is on its own with this slug of precip. Trials and I are posting and talking about the dgex more in a banter manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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