ag3 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 18z dgex is almost a replica of the 12z euro. Change the stamp to the 12z euro, and this is what it looked like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You would do yourself a huge favor if you stopped posting on this subject. You haven't proven to me that the ground temperatures have little to no impact on snow accumulations, so I will stop posting on this subject, since it seems that you can not provide any evidence to the contrary. If asking questions warrants that I shouldn't talk about this topic anymore, perhaps then I should throw away any ideas of getting a degree in meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 17/14 right now... Brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You haven't proven to me that the ground temperatures have little to no impact on snow accumulations, so I will stop posting on this subject, since it seems that you can not provide any evidence to the contrary. If asking questions warrants that I shouldn't talk about this topic anymore, perhaps then I should throw away any ideas of getting a degree in meteorology. If you simply watch what's happened in the last ten years, you wouldn't be asking this question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 18z dgex is almost a replica of the 12z euro. Change the stamp to the 12z euro, and this is what it looked like: Obviously it's the DGEX, known for crazy fantasy solutions, although it is a major change from its 6z run which had nothing. Perhaps the start of a northwest and stronger/wetter trend with Sunday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 If you simply watch what's happened in the last ten years, you wouldn't be asking this question. Well I'm 15, so I wouldn't have the memory to observe what has happened over the past 10 years. I can remember storms dating back to 2007-2008, but that's about it. I started to learn how meteorologists like yourself forecast the upcoming weather in the next 5 days around the 2009-2010 timeframe, and the teleconnections like the NAO/MJO etc. and I am learning even more with every day I spend on this weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Obviously it's the DGEX, known for crazy fantasy solutions, although it is a major change from its 6z run which had nothing. Perhaps the start of a northwest and stronger/wetter trend with Sunday's storm? I hear the EC ensembles have it over the cape.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It is 23 degrees IMBY in C NJ with a wind chill of 12 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I hear the EC ensembles have it over the cape.. From the RaleighWx maps it looks like it, but at least from what I can tell, they appear to be stronger and more organized than the 0z ECM ensemble mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i have the euro ensemles full plots, ill check it out and report at 6:37pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 there are a few euro ensemble members to the SE and but for the most part its like the OP. I would say they are cooler compared to the OP, but that doesnt surprise me since a few members are over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Well I'm 15, so I wouldn't have the memory to observe what has happened over the past 10 years. I can remember storms dating back to 2007-2008, but that's about it. I started to learn how meteorologists like yourself forecast the upcoming weather in the next 5 days around the 2009-2010 timeframe, and the teleconnections like the NAO/MJO etc. and I am learning even more with every day I spend on this weather forum. Use October of this year for your first example... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 18Z GFS says what storm, lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 18Z GFS says what storm, lolz ..Right where want it...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 18Z GFS says what storm, lolz It's OTS and well east of the 12z GFS which had a coastal hugger. I think no solution is completely off the table quite yet, since we could very well have an inland runner or a coastal hugger with a +NAO. It seems less likely that this will go OTS IMO, and I think the NYC area should see some precipitation from this "storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 18Z GFS says what storm, lolz It's not there in the region this run, although we're still 126 hours out... the GFS has done this many times before in the medium range, and based on the pattern we're in, I'm going at least for now with the western solution for this storm, although a further east scenario like the 12z GFS isn't impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It's not there in the region this run, although we're still 126 hours out... the GFS has done this many times before in the medium range, and based on the pattern we're in, I'm going at least for now with the western solution for this storm, although a further east scenario like the 12z GFS isn't impossible. Actually, I think the 12Z GFS probably makes the most sense, given the pattern we're in. There isn't really room for amplification like the ECMWF and GGEM want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well I'm 15, so I wouldn't have the memory to observe what has happened over the past 10 years. I can remember storms dating back to 2007-2008, but that's about it. I started to learn how meteorologists like yourself forecast the upcoming weather in the next 5 days around the 2009-2010 timeframe, and the teleconnections like the NAO/MJO etc. and I am learning even more with every day I spend on this weather forum. It has snowed in April after a 80 degree day and last October after a warm start...If it comes down hard enough it will stick in July...It just won't last as long as a frozen ground would have...I was 15 in 1964 and remember events from that year like it was yesterday...I'm still learning and I've been on these boards since 1999... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Has anyone seen the 18z gfs predicted AO chart? It has the A0 tanking to -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 end of january through march could be pretty nice around here based upon the things John, Isotherm, and others are talking about. Sun is too strong by then. we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It has snowed in April after a 80 degree day and last October after a warm start...If it comes down hard enough it will stick in July...It just won't last as long as a frozen ground would have...I was 15 in 1964 and remember events from that year like it was yesterday...I'm still learning and I've been on these boards since 1999... Thank you for your insight. Having longer experience with the weather outdoors makes you more knowledgeable with it, it seems. Hopefully I will be able to witness another October 2011 snow event in the future like I did last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Actually, I think the 12Z GFS probably makes the most sense, given the pattern we're in. There isn't really room for amplification like the ECMWF and GGEM want. With this set up, we're definitely not going to get any significantly amplified system with heavy rains and significant snows in the region, and a solution like the 12z GFS does make sense given this pattern. I could be wrong with this, but although I think that the 12z ECM exaggerated the storm's intensity and snowfall, perhaps we could get a slightly wetter although not a significantly stronger storm moving through the region, with light to moderate rain on Sunday. There was also the wave of low pressure on 12/23 which didn't have much amplification but was still able to bring moderate rain. These seem to be the two main possibilities at this time in my opinion, either a wetter storm closer to the CMC, or a weaker and more suppressed storm like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Has anyone seen the 18z gfs predicted AO chart? It has the A0 tanking to -5. The AO is so negative on the 18z GFS that it actually goes off of the charts for a time. Could the GFS be picking up on the SSW that is rapidly progressing, causing a solid -AO in the long run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 20F and windy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 the 500mb charts do support a -AO on the 18z run sadly, it def. reverts back more towards a positive regime at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 18.8 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The AO is negative on the GFS, but the NAO is full swing +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The AO is negative on the GFS, but the NAO is full swing +. except between 240 and 300, the positive heights do finally get west. Sadly, it doesnt last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 18.8 so far About 18 degrees here as well... forecast low is 12, I'm thinking it's going to be slightly colder than that. I could be missing something but I don't see much evidence how the temperature is going to be stuck at 17/18 degrees through 2 AM as the forecast from Upton shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 22°F here. The temps are free falling, I hope we don't go lower than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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