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2012 Winter Banter Thread


CooL

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You would do yourself a huge favor if you stopped posting on this subject.

You haven't proven to me that the ground temperatures have little to no impact on snow accumulations, so I will stop posting on this subject, since it seems that you can not provide any evidence to the contrary.

If asking questions warrants that I shouldn't talk about this topic anymore, perhaps then I should throw away any ideas of getting a degree in meteorology.

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You haven't proven to me that the ground temperatures have little to no impact on snow accumulations, so I will stop posting on this subject, since it seems that you can not provide any evidence to the contrary.

If asking questions warrants that I shouldn't talk about this topic anymore, perhaps then I should throw away any ideas of getting a degree in meteorology.

If you simply watch what's happened in the last ten years, you wouldn't be asking this question.

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18z dgex is almost a replica of the 12z euro.

Change the stamp to the 12z euro, and this is what it looked like:

f120.gif

f126.gif

Obviously it's the DGEX, known for crazy fantasy solutions, although it is a major change from its 6z run which had nothing. Perhaps the start of a northwest and stronger/wetter trend with Sunday's storm?

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If you simply watch what's happened in the last ten years, you wouldn't be asking this question.

Well I'm 15, so I wouldn't have the memory to observe what has happened over the past 10 years. I can remember storms dating back to 2007-2008, but that's about it. I started to learn how meteorologists like yourself forecast the upcoming weather in the next 5 days around the 2009-2010 timeframe, and the teleconnections like the NAO/MJO etc. and I am learning even more with every day I spend on this weather forum.

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Well I'm 15, so I wouldn't have the memory to observe what has happened over the past 10 years. I can remember storms dating back to 2007-2008, but that's about it. I started to learn how meteorologists like yourself forecast the upcoming weather in the next 5 days around the 2009-2010 timeframe, and the teleconnections like the NAO/MJO etc. and I am learning even more with every day I spend on this weather forum.

Use October of this year for your first example...

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18Z GFS says what storm, lolz

It's OTS and well east of the 12z GFS which had a coastal hugger. I think no solution is completely off the table quite yet, since we could very well have an inland runner or a coastal hugger with a +NAO. It seems less likely that this will go OTS IMO, and I think the NYC area should see some precipitation from this "storm."

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18Z GFS says what storm, lolz

It's not there in the region this run, although we're still 126 hours out... the GFS has done this many times before in the medium range, and based on the pattern we're in, I'm going at least for now with the western solution for this storm, although a further east scenario like the 12z GFS isn't impossible.

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It's not there in the region this run, although we're still 126 hours out... the GFS has done this many times before in the medium range, and based on the pattern we're in, I'm going at least for now with the western solution for this storm, although a further east scenario like the 12z GFS isn't impossible.

Actually, I think the 12Z GFS probably makes the most sense, given the pattern we're in. There isn't really room for amplification like the ECMWF and GGEM want.

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Well I'm 15, so I wouldn't have the memory to observe what has happened over the past 10 years. I can remember storms dating back to 2007-2008, but that's about it. I started to learn how meteorologists like yourself forecast the upcoming weather in the next 5 days around the 2009-2010 timeframe, and the teleconnections like the NAO/MJO etc. and I am learning even more with every day I spend on this weather forum.

It has snowed in April after a 80 degree day and last October after a warm start...If it comes down hard enough it will stick in July...It just won't last as long as a frozen ground would have...I was 15 in 1964 and remember events from that year like it was yesterday...I'm still learning and I've been on these boards since 1999...

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It has snowed in April after a 80 degree day and last October after a warm start...If it comes down hard enough it will stick in July...It just won't last as long as a frozen ground would have...I was 15 in 1964 and remember events from that year like it was yesterday...I'm still learning and I've been on these boards since 1999...

Thank you for your insight. Having longer experience with the weather outdoors makes you more knowledgeable with it, it seems. Hopefully I will be able to witness another October 2011 snow event in the future like I did last year! :)

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Actually, I think the 12Z GFS probably makes the most sense, given the pattern we're in. There isn't really room for amplification like the ECMWF and GGEM want.

With this set up, we're definitely not going to get any significantly amplified system with heavy rains and significant snows in the region, and a solution like the 12z GFS does make sense given this pattern. I could be wrong with this, but although I think that the 12z ECM exaggerated the storm's intensity and snowfall, perhaps we could get a slightly wetter although not a significantly stronger storm moving through the region, with light to moderate rain on Sunday. There was also the wave of low pressure on 12/23 which didn't have much amplification but was still able to bring moderate rain. These seem to be the two main possibilities at this time in my opinion, either a wetter storm closer to the CMC, or a weaker and more suppressed storm like the GFS.

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18.8 so far

About 18 degrees here as well... forecast low is 12, I'm thinking it's going to be slightly colder than that. I could be missing something but I don't see much evidence how the temperature is going to be stuck at 17/18 degrees through 2 AM as the forecast from Upton shows.

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