Cfa Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Lol @ the people on twitter thinking there's going to be a snow storm today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 warm ground argument. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Trials is right, it is rain for NYC. Take a look at the 2 meter temperatures on the GGEM: They are around 40 degrees for NYC, which supports rain, not snow. In the northern half of NJ though they are below 40 degrees and above 30 degrees, so it would be a fair guess to say that temperatures would be in the mid to upper thirties for the northern half of NJ. There might be some wet snow mixed there, since there are sub 540 thicknesses and sub 0C 850 mb temperatures, but accumulations are very unlikely with such a warm ground. Not to be nitpicky, but the map you posted is 30's for NYC and the 40 degree line is in Nassau County and the Jersey shore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It's just so funny to me that were able to get a few inches of snow in late October and can't even manage to get a few flurries since that time. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the biggest snowfall of the season, technically that wasn't even season either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I believe NOAA starts the season on October 1st. It's just so funny to me that were able to get a few inches of snow in late October and can't even manage to get a few flurries since that time. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the biggest snowfall of the season, technically that wasn't even season either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 warm ground argument. :axe: It's actually kind of amusing for me! When do people learn that the ground cools rapidly? If the warm ground argument were true, the October snow would have never stuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 we were due... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro ensemble mean shows the low going over the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It's actually kind of amusing for me! When do people learn that the ground cools rapidly? If the warm ground argument were true, the October snow would have never stuck! The surface temperatures for the surrounding areas in NYC were in the low to mid thirties, not the upper 30s to low 40s like the coldest model, the GGEM is showing for this storm. In addition, the storm being depicted on the GGEM is much weaker than the October snow event, so the dynamics would not even be close to what they were during the October snowstorm, which is why I think this comparison is off base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Not to be nitpicky, but the map you posted is 30's for NYC and the 40 degree line is in Nassau County and the Jersey shore.. Yes, NYC is just a hair west of the 40 degree line, but I think it is safe to say that the bulk of the precipitation that falls on NYC is probably rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I finally got snow this morning... it was such a tiny dusting that I actually thought someone spilled powder on the table before touching it and seeing how it melted instantly. I could even literally count how many snow pellets were on each surface, but at least it's a trace and officially counts as snow. The next potential for isolated flurries is on Wednesday evening. 6z NAM showed it, 12z NAM was just to our south, and on the NCEP maps, the 18z NAM also has flurries. The GFS is also close to showing something. 6z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The surface temperatures for the surrounding areas in NYC were in the low to mid thirties, not the upper 30s to low 40s like the coldest model, the GGEM is showing for this storm. In addition, the storm being depicted on the GGEM is much weaker than the October snow event, so the dynamics would not even be close to what they were during the October snowstorm, which is why I think this comparison is off base. What do dynamics have to do with ground temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The surface temperatures for the surrounding areas in NYC were in the low to mid thirties, not the upper 30s to low 40s like the coldest model, the GGEM is showing for this storm. In addition, the storm being depicted on the GGEM is much weaker than the October snow event, so the dynamics would not even be close to what they were during the October snowstorm, which is why I think this comparison is off base. So what? The ground temperature argument is still stupid. If it snows at 38 degrees, it's never going to stick. It doesn't matter how cold it was recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I finally got snow this morning... it was such a tiny dusting that I actually thought someone spilled powder on the table before touching it and seeing how it melted instantly. I could even literally count how many snow pellets were on each surface, but at least it's a trace and officially counts as snow. The next potential for isolated flurries is on Wednesday evening. 6z NAM showed it, 12z NAM was just to our south, and on the NCEP maps, the 18z NAM also has flurries. The GFS is also close to showing something. 6z NAM: I think we'll see fairly widespread flurries tomorrow, and maybe another shot Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 What do dynamics have to do with ground temps? The dynamics brought cooler air with the very heavy precipitation through the CCB which brought the surface air temperature down, and brought the ground temperature down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 what do the euro ensembles look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Did we ever imagine a year ago that we'd even be discussing 'widespread flurries' let alone somewhat excited for them? Maybe in November but in January its just I think we'll see fairly widespread flurries tomorrow, and maybe another shot Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The dynamics brought cooler air with the very heavy precipitation through the CCB which brought the surface air temperature down, and brought the ground temperature down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So what? The ground temperature argument is still stupid. If it snows at 38 degrees, it's never going to stick. It doesn't matter how cold it was recently. Exactly, it is not going to stick because of the surface air temperatures, which contribute to the current ground temperatures during that timeframe. I could very well be mistaken on this issue, I just don't see how ground temperatures do not play a role in snow accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 what do the euro ensembles look like? The op was the warmest from what ive read, but the difference isnt signficant enough for us around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So how do the ground temperatures not play a role in the accumulations of snow? If the surface temperatures are 38 degrees with light snow, accumulations will not happen. Period. How does the ground become cold enough for where snow can accumulate, if it is a consistent 38 degrees with light snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Exactly, it is not going to stick because of the surface air temperatures, which contribute to the current ground temperatures during that timeframe. I could very well be mistaken on this issue, I just don't see how ground temperatures do not play a role in snow accumulating. You would do yourself a huge favor if you stopped posting on this subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So how do the ground temperatures not play a role in the accumulations of snow? If the surface temperatures are 38 degrees with light snow, accumulations will not happen. Period. How does the ground become cold enough for where snow can accumulate, if it is a consistent 38 degrees with light snow? I never said the ground temps play no role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You would do yourself a huge favor if you stopped posting on this subject. I'd vote for stop posting at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 and the ground temps argument should be done and over with after the Oct storm...it was torch month here and the snow started sticking on EVERYTHING within minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It's kinda cold out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I believe NOAA starts the season on October 1st. Actually July 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The angle of the cold is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Some pretty good snows at Buoy 44066. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think we'll see fairly widespread flurries tomorrow, and maybe another shot Thursday morning. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we have a better chance for flurries tomorrow night than we did this morning. This time, the overall focus of the snow showers extends further east, as the risk of flurries exists for the entire area, not just the western areas with flurries weakening prior to reaching NYC as they did today. Looking a bit beyond, Upton also has rain/snow showers for Sunday, although that one I think should be wetter and further N/W than the GFS shows, at least closer to the ECM, with more rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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