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2012 Winter Banter Thread


CooL

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Trials is right, it is rain for NYC.

Take a look at the 2 meter temperatures on the GGEM: They are around 40 degrees for NYC, which supports rain, not snow. In the northern half of NJ though they are below 40 degrees and above 30 degrees, so it would be a fair guess to say that temperatures would be in the mid to upper thirties for the northern half of NJ. There might be some wet snow mixed there, since there are sub 540 thicknesses and sub 0C 850 mb temperatures, but accumulations are very unlikely with such a warm ground.

post-3451-0-47803600-1325619865.png

Not to be nitpicky, but the map you posted is 30's for NYC and the 40 degree line is in Nassau County and the Jersey shore..

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It's actually kind of amusing for me! When do people learn that the ground cools rapidly? If the warm ground argument were true, the October snow would have never stuck!

The surface temperatures for the surrounding areas in NYC were in the low to mid thirties, not the upper 30s to low 40s like the coldest model, the GGEM is showing for this storm. In addition, the storm being depicted on the GGEM is much weaker than the October snow event, so the dynamics would not even be close to what they were during the October snowstorm, which is why I think this comparison is off base.

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I finally got snow this morning... it was such a tiny dusting that I actually thought someone spilled powder on the table before touching it and seeing how it melted instantly. I could even literally count how many snow pellets were on each surface, but at least it's a trace and officially counts as snow.

The next potential for isolated flurries is on Wednesday evening. 6z NAM showed it, 12z NAM was just to our south, and on the NCEP maps, the 18z NAM also has flurries. The GFS is also close to showing something.

6z NAM:

post-1753-0-25668100-1325622864.gif

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The surface temperatures for the surrounding areas in NYC were in the low to mid thirties, not the upper 30s to low 40s like the coldest model, the GGEM is showing for this storm. In addition, the storm being depicted on the GGEM is much weaker than the October snow event, so the dynamics would not even be close to what they were during the October snowstorm, which is why I think this comparison is off base.

What do dynamics have to do with ground temps?

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The surface temperatures for the surrounding areas in NYC were in the low to mid thirties, not the upper 30s to low 40s like the coldest model, the GGEM is showing for this storm. In addition, the storm being depicted on the GGEM is much weaker than the October snow event, so the dynamics would not even be close to what they were during the October snowstorm, which is why I think this comparison is off base.

So what? The ground temperature argument is still stupid. If it snows at 38 degrees, it's never going to stick. It doesn't matter how cold it was recently.

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I finally got snow this morning... it was such a tiny dusting that I actually thought someone spilled powder on the table before touching it and seeing how it melted instantly. I could even literally count how many snow pellets were on each surface, but at least it's a trace and officially counts as snow.

The next potential for isolated flurries is on Wednesday evening. 6z NAM showed it, 12z NAM was just to our south, and on the NCEP maps, the 18z NAM also has flurries. The GFS is also close to showing something.

6z NAM:

post-1753-0-25668100-1325622864.gif

I think we'll see fairly widespread flurries tomorrow, and maybe another shot Thursday morning.

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So what? The ground temperature argument is still stupid. If it snows at 38 degrees, it's never going to stick. It doesn't matter how cold it was recently.

Exactly, it is not going to stick because of the surface air temperatures, which contribute to the current ground temperatures during that timeframe.

I could very well be mistaken on this issue, I just don't see how ground temperatures do not play a role in snow accumulating.

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Exactly, it is not going to stick because of the surface air temperatures, which contribute to the current ground temperatures during that timeframe.

I could very well be mistaken on this issue, I just don't see how ground temperatures do not play a role in snow accumulating.

You would do yourself a huge favor if you stopped posting on this subject.

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So how do the ground temperatures not play a role in the accumulations of snow? If the surface temperatures are 38 degrees with light snow, accumulations will not happen. Period. How does the ground become cold enough for where snow can accumulate, if it is a consistent 38 degrees with light snow?

I never said the ground temps play no role.

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I think we'll see fairly widespread flurries tomorrow, and maybe another shot Thursday morning.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if we have a better chance for flurries tomorrow night than we did this morning. This time, the overall focus of the snow showers extends further east, as the risk of flurries exists for the entire area, not just the western areas with flurries weakening prior to reaching NYC as they did today.

Looking a bit beyond, Upton also has rain/snow showers for Sunday, although that one I think should be wetter and further N/W than the GFS shows, at least closer to the ECM, with more rain for us.

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