TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Close call on the GGEM rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Just love watching every ounce of cold air drain out of here while the gfs ever so politely holds back our storm just in time for the cold to leave. For the what, 10th time this season? Why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 rain That doesn't look like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 funny to see the lake effect guys get skunked too. All those warning etc for very little snow. You should check OBS before posting stuff like this in order to avoid looking silly PENNSYLVANIA ...CRAWFORD COUNTY... CANADOHTA LAKE 18.0 918 AM 1/03 MEADVILLE 16.0 935 AM 1/03 PONT 15.0 924 AM 1/03 3 WNW SPRINGBORO 15.0 700 AM 1/03 SPRINGBOR 3NW 15.0 1008 AM 1/03 MEADVILLE 5W 14.0 1001 AM 1/03 CONNEAUTVILLE 6SW 11.0 919 AM 1/03 TITUSVILLE 8.0 924 AM 1/03 ...ERIE COUNTY... CORRY 15.0 933 AM 1/03 FRANKLIN CTR 10.0 920 AM 1/03 AMITY TWP 8.0 1025 AM 1/03 OHIO ...ASHTABULA COUNTY... WINDSOR 7.0 1001 AM 1/03 ...CUYAHOGA COUNTY... CHAGRIN FALLS 8.5 919 AM 1/03 PIERPONT 2SE 9.5 932 AM 1/03 ...GEAUGA COUNTY... THOMPSON 5SW 8.0 925 AM 1/03 CHESTERLAND 6.2 1002 AM 1/03 1 SSE MONTVILLE 6.0 545 AM 1/03 MONTVILLE 6.0 917 AM 1/03 CHARDON 6.0 920 AM 1/03 ...PORTAGE COUNTY... HIRAM 8.5 1018 AM 1/03 ...TRUMBULL COUNTY... 1 N NEWTON FALLS 7.6 700 AM 1/03 ...CRAWFORD COUNTY... SPRINGBOR 3NW 6.5 1008 AM 1/03 3 WNW SPRINGBORO 6.5 700 AM 1/03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Boston has only seen an inch of snow http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA At least were not the only ones getting screwed this winter. I think the country as a whole has been very warm and rather snowless. I know a good chunk of the Northeast has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You should check OBS before posting stuff like this in order to avoid looking silly PENNSYLVANIA ...CRAWFORD COUNTY... CANADOHTA LAKE 18.0 918 AM 1/03 MEADVILLE 16.0 935 AM 1/03 PONT 15.0 924 AM 1/03 3 WNW SPRINGBORO 15.0 700 AM 1/03 SPRINGBOR 3NW 15.0 1008 AM 1/03 MEADVILLE 5W 14.0 1001 AM 1/03 CONNEAUTVILLE 6SW 11.0 919 AM 1/03 TITUSVILLE 8.0 924 AM 1/03 ...ERIE COUNTY... CORRY 15.0 933 AM 1/03 FRANKLIN CTR 10.0 920 AM 1/03 AMITY TWP 8.0 1025 AM 1/03 OHIO ...ASHTABULA COUNTY... WINDSOR 7.0 1001 AM 1/03 ...CUYAHOGA COUNTY... CHAGRIN FALLS 8.5 919 AM 1/03 PIERPONT 2SE 9.5 932 AM 1/03 ...GEAUGA COUNTY... THOMPSON 5SW 8.0 925 AM 1/03 CHESTERLAND 6.2 1002 AM 1/03 1 SSE MONTVILLE 6.0 545 AM 1/03 MONTVILLE 6.0 917 AM 1/03 CHARDON 6.0 920 AM 1/03 ...PORTAGE COUNTY... HIRAM 8.5 1018 AM 1/03 ...TRUMBULL COUNTY... 1 N NEWTON FALLS 7.6 700 AM 1/03 ...CRAWFORD COUNTY... SPRINGBOR 3NW 6.5 1008 AM 1/03 3 WNW SPRINGBORO 6.5 700 AM 1/03 i looked at those, very very localized and nothing on the scale it was forecasted to be. Read the lake effect thread, they are saying the same thing. The NY reports were sparse too, notice you didn't post those The area was blankted in warnings, the bands never really got going, maybe later today, but not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Meanwhile it's snowing like crazy down in parts of the Baltimore/DC corridor right now with passing snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The Trials look silly? Never. Nice bust there my friend....we would kill for 1/4 of those snow totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i looked at those, very very localized and nothing on the scale it was forecasted to be. Read the lake effect thread, they are saying the same thing. Lake effect is localized by nature. The streamers over NY State may not have worked out but it looks some areas of Ohio and Pennsylvania cashed in. Certainly not "very little" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The Trials look silly? Never. Nice bust there my friend....we would kill for 1/4 of those snow totals... Did I say no one got snow? no, but go look at the forecast discussions and warnings, and look was verified. Read the obs threads too, a lot of diasspointed and disgruntled people who thought this was going to be a massive event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Lake effect is localized by nature. The streamers over NY State may not have worked out but it looks some areas of Ohio and Pennsylvania cashed in. Certainly not "very little" snow. Of course it localized by nature, but in comparison to what was forecasted and what fell, its a dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Of course it localized by nature, but in comparison to what was forecasted and what fell, its a dissapointment. very much so, most of the LES belts in NY recieved much less than forecasted. Ithaca was forecasted to get 6-8 inches, they got a trace. Syracuse well over a foot, they got 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Of course it localized by nature, but in comparison to what was forecasted and what fell, its a dissapointment. I saw the posts, and I can't speak for their expectations, but the LES belt in New York State is where the bust was and that is where all the bust posts are coming from. The higher totals were away from the people that were screaming bust in that thread... there are well over a dozen 6 inch reports in that PNS which certainly doesn't equal very little snow...just seemed like a highly generalized statement to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 very much so, most of the LES belts in NY recieved much less than forecasted. Ithaca was forecasted to get 6-8 inches, they got a trace. there are always exceptions as with the few high totals out of PA and some in NY, but pull the maps with western NY state covered in warnings and forecasts and compare the results. Absolutely a failed event. Even the favored areas which never really get skunked drew big goose eggs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I saw the posts, and I can't speak for their expectations, but the LES belt in New York State is where the bust was and that is where all the bust posts are coming from. The higher totals were away from the people that were screaming bust in that thread... there are well over a dozen 6 inch reports in that PNS which certainly doesn't equal very little snow...just seemed like a highly generalized statement to me. Well, im not gonna sit here and break down every place that could have or did receive lake effect snow. Maybe i should have prefaced i was really speaking on NY state, which I was, but that's a bad result for such a favorable LE setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 very much so, most of the LES belts in NY recieved much less than forecasted. Ithaca was forecasted to get 6-8 inches, they got a trace. Lake effect isnt an exact sciencr by any stretch of the imagination. Did the snow squalls really perform? Yes but not exactly as intense as forecasted. Some areas as earthlight posted still got 1-2 feet of snow and some areas that were forecast to get 3,6,9 inches didnt because of the band placement. Overall it was not close to a non event and there were still some hefty totals that were recieved in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm waiting in salt lake airport and its amazing how little snow is in the mountains. Usually.this area is covered in snow...the higher peaks are white. But below say 7000 feet there's no snow...will fly.riverhead cascades later and ill report on the conditions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Just want this winter over with.....pattern is not going to change and I can't work with no snow......I definitely though this might happen.....let's just torch from here in out...... i wouldnt worry. In New York City's history there has never been a snowy (or cold) winter when the avg december temperature was 43.3 and novemeber was as high at 51.9. Those two months match remarkably to Nov-Dec 1979, 1982 (can be thrown out because it was the second strongest EL NINO on record) 1994 (also an El Nino year) 2001 and 2006 (el nino). Throw in the fact that we had zero snow in December and you can bank on a crappy winter...we had one cheap flukey in Jan 2002 and a March snow event in 2007 that avoided complete catastrophe ... I dont care what Steve D says....this is the winter where everything good (on the models) is and will always stay 10 days away....the Stratospheric warming keeps getting pushed off, the -nao is non-existent....those should work out just in time to eff up spring. In all honesty, we were due for one of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Not if a -AO and -EPO develops. IF the Queen had balls.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 once again irrelevant, if the pattern is bad nothing else matters. Where is Ace? LOL...Im here....I laugh at these guys...grasping at straws (steve d, jb) on a daily basis....too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i wouldnt worry. In New York City's history there has never been a snowy (or cold) winter when the avg december temperature was 43.3 and novemeber was as high at 51.9. Those two months match remarkably to Nov-Dec 1979, 1982 (can be thrown out because it was the second strongest EL NINO on record) 1994 (also an El Nino year) 2001 and 2006 (el nino). Throw in the fact that we had zero snow in December and you can bank on a crappy winter...we had one cheap flukey in Jan 2002 and a March snow event in 2007 that avoided complete catastrophe ... I dont care what Steve D says....this is the winter where everything good (on the models) is and will always stay 10 days away....the Stratospheric warming keeps getting pushed off, the -nao is non-existent....those should work out just in time to eff up spring. In all honesty, we were due for one of these. there is no such thing as "being due". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 there is no such thing as "being due". yeah, if that was the case, metfan would have lost his virginity years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 news 12 (long island) weather guy said some accumulating snow in the next 48 hours,from what? i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 there is no such thing as "being due". however you want to phrase it...this winter is going to be an extended autumn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 however you want to phrase it...this winter is going to be an extended autumn I dont care how you phrase it, youre wrong. There is no "being due"....a crappy winter may happen, but it isnt because of being due for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 LOL...Im here....I laugh at these guys...grasping at straws (steve d, jb) on a daily basis....too funny. Anybody saying winter over or winter cancel this early in the winter may set themselves up for a bust. The pattern we all know sucks but there is always situations where a storm can still form and deliver some snow not a blizzard sometimes but a storm nonetheless. Im not a weenie but i do love winter, snow is very hard to come by this year but saying winter is done with over 2 months to go is quite the hail mary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Of course it localized by nature, but in comparison to what was forecasted and what fell, its a dissapointment. Lake effect is very fickle by nature. Overall, the conditions might have been there, but may not have aligned during the time of max potential. One factor seemed to be the cellular nature of the snows yesterday, which are dependent on daytime instability and die off after sunset quickly. These collectively rarely dump more than 1-2 or 3" of snow in a day, but are intense for a few minutes. When the upper and surface winds align and flow over Lakes Huron and Ontario/Erie, this is when the mega bands that can clobber folks with 2-3 feet of snow form. Once, one of those bands hit me in State College, PA and dumped half a foot of powder in an hour and a half. The other thing about lake effect is how dry it is, and how quickly it compacts/melts. So although many areas do get clobbered by it in the snowbelts, it's nothing like the heavy, thick snow from noreasters here. The half foot of powder I had that day from the lake effect band was gone by the next evening under early April sun, to the point where you wouldn't even know it snowed except for some patches under trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 yeah, if that was the case, metfan would have lost his virginity years ago. You are creepy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The past 2 years we have seen a snowy January, a snowy February, a snowy December, and even a snowy October. The only month left really is march and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we see a snowy march or some sort of freak march/spring snowstorm. Not basing this off anything, just bantering in this here banter thread. I am aware of that whole "the pattern will change in 10 days" and usually the pattern changes just in time for spring and voila you get a cold and damp spring. Not saying that will happen but it honestly wouldnt surprise me if that's what transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That doesn't look like rain. Trials is right, it is rain for NYC. Take a look at the 2 meter temperatures on the GGEM: They are around 40 degrees for NYC, which supports rain, not snow. In the northern half of NJ though they are below 40 degrees and above 30 degrees, so it would be a fair guess to say that temperatures would be in the mid to upper thirties for the northern half of NJ. There might be some wet snow mixed there, since there are sub 540 thicknesses and sub 0C 850 mb temperatures, but accumulations are very unlikely with such a warm ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.