snywx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Dusting here from a squall.. Yay!! Pretty sad that im excited to see a dusting of snow on Jan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Comparing the 12z and 18z gfs is encouraging. 12z had a completely disjointed northern stream, 18z is way better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I think the flow is a bit too fast to allow for much of a correction west, assuming the shortwave does not cut off over the Southern US. The ridge over the Western US and Rockies collapses to the east a bit, and the jet stream almost flattens. Additionally the baroclinic zone is pushed pretty far offshore by the storm system passing to our north a few days prior. If you loop the 18z GFS, you can see how the ridge is pressing on the pattern a good bit. If the shortwave cuts off, it is an entirely different ballgame as it can wait for the next big/amplified northern stream feature which will phase and bring the surface low inland. Again, the window for this to produce snow for us is so incredibly small -- I do think it is worth a look, though. text me when its 48 hours out. Until then, GO BIG BLUE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 lol... Its really coming down here now. Everything covered under a heavy dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 What's is sad is that this type of setup w/ lake snows coming off the lakes in the trajectory that they are usually FIRST happens in Late Nov./Early December.... This is the first event that is really like this, this season... Crazy. Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 lol... Its really coming down here now. Everything covered under a heavy dusting. pics? measurement? road conditions? school closings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 lol... Its really coming down here now. Everything covered under a heavy dusting. Blow us a few snow laden clouds to the NYC area.. Thanx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Some areas already got flurries today just from the lake effect; with the arctic front mentioned for tomorrow, hopefully we actually get more widespread flurries out of it rather than a dry frontal passage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Some areas already got flurries today just from the lake effect; with the arctic front mentioned for tomorrow, hopefully we actually get more widespread flurries out of it rather than a dry frontal passage... From your mouth to G-ds ears.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 From your mouth to G-ds ears.. At least the HRRR/RR models show flurries, the NMM/ARW don't but I'm not too familiar with how well they handle LES events. Upton's latest discussion regarding the flake potential also gives more hope of actually seeing something white falling out of the sky: ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING...ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST..AND USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON. ERN LONG ISLAND AND CT SHOULD BE IN A LOW LEVEL COL BETWEEN THE APPROACHING FRONT AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SO DO NOT THINK THOSE AREAS WILL SEE ANY FLURRIES. WITH NW H8-9 FLOW DIRECTED OFF THE LAKES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LAKE EFFECT STREAMER OR TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT UNCERTAIN ATTM SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED FLURRIES. If we don't see anything tomorrow, there also appears to be the potential for more scattered flurries on Wednesday night as the next shortwave moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 JB Biggest mid winter reversal from warm to cold for US as whole since winter of 06-07 on way. Severe cold possible even in pac northwest 2006-2007 was a clunker winter for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Had two les bands come through here in the Poconos tonight, nice coating on the ground. Although they seem to be dieing off rather fast as they head east into NW NJ tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Steve D Major changes are on the way for the pattern and I think many snow lovers are going to enjoy this change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Steve D Said the same exact thing on December 10th if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Steve D Said this back in Mid November as well..What happened to that call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Said the same exact thing on December 10th if I remember correctly. Said this back in Mid November as well..What happened to that call? A lot of people said the same thing back in November . I think he might be right this time around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 If he said it back in Mid November & Dec 10th, he has to get it right eventually? Perhaps next winter as his current rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 A weak wave exits off the coast at 132 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It looks like another low is forming down south at 144 hours. The vort is digging pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So damn close. This is getting really interesting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Man is it close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So damn close. This is getting really interesting now. Both the day 5 and day 7 storm are mildly interesting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So damn close. This is getting really interesting now. The ridge axis is a little to far east for the area. H5 looks good to me. I really think the area will see something with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 even tho the euro hasnt been the best recently, im curious to see what it has once it loses its SW cutoff BS garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Day 11-15 850 temp anomalies look like crap on the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I cant see how this january will go snowless around here, but the big time coastal noreasters will probly have to wait. Although I agree with this post, the fact that December was close to snowless in much of upstate NY and New England is a far more remarkable happening, climatologically speaking; than a snowless January would be around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 gfs has lost all the amplification just like the last several storms we have seen in the 7 day range. Its a bad wash rinse repeat right now with that killer vortex over greenland and the davis strait. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Just saw weenie flakes flying east of LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Just want this winter over with.....pattern is not going to change and I can't work with no snow......I definitely though this might happen.....let's just torch from here in out...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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