Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 10:45 PM, Snow88 said: GFS says we have to wait till the end of the month for a change. cold is always 10-15 days away from whatever date is the current date....been seeing that since Mid Nov...time to stick a fork in this one folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 10:45 PM, Snow88 said: GFS says we have to wait till the end of the month for a change. That was one of the worst GFS runs in a while. Hopefully a blip. No reason to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 10:22 PM, Cfa said: Too busy enjoying the warmth. I wonder what our latest date for a first snowfall is. it wont be set this due to the 10/29/11 storm--that was the first snow for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Don't vote for this guy http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71129.html#comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 10:52 PM, Brian5671 said: cold is always 10-15 days away from whatever date is the current date....been seeing that since Mid Nov...time to stick a fork in this one folks. Just because 1 run is showing a horrible solution? On 1/6/2012 at 10:52 PM, mattinpa said: That was one of the worst GFS runs in a while. Hopefully a blip. No reason to give up. No one is giving up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 10:59 PM, Snow88 said: Just because 1 run is showing a horrible solution? No one is giving up Funny how they forget just 6 hours ago was one of the coldest runs of the GFS with a possible MECS at hour 372. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 11:01 PM, Feb said: Funny how they forget just 6 hours ago was one of the coldest runs of the GFS with a possible MECS at hour 372. it's jumping around all over the place--the model(s) have no idea how to handle all the changes going on, that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 11:06 PM, Brian5671 said: it's jumping around all over the place--the model(s) have no idea how to handle all the changes going on, that is for sure. The models usually have problems with pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 11:07 PM, Snow88 said: The models usually have problems with pattern changes. Models are generally terrible regardless post day 7, but they're even more volatile and bipolar when we've got major regime changes occurring. Each run will probably produce a completely different solution until the height reversal over AK and the arctic becomes more of a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 No one should really take any model too seriously after Day 5 or even Day 3 this season, note the dramatic changes from run to run after 120 hours, it definitely indicates a lot of volatility at work here. Eventually the rubber band will snap, whether it takes days, weeks, or months, it does eventually snap and it's usually done in a dramatic way. This winter is quickly making a run with 2001-2002 as the worst winter for the country as of now. The good news is that even in that horrible winter and record warmth, we saw at least one snowfall amount that gave us a few inches so we should be able to get at least one accumulating snowfall event, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 11:37 PM, jetski09 said: No one should really take any model too seriously after Day 5 or even Day 3 this season, note the dramatic changes from run to run after 120 hours, it definitely indicates a lot of volatility at work here. Eventually the rubber band will snap, whether it takes days, weeks, or months, it does eventually snap and it's usually done in a dramatic way. This winter is quickly making a run with 2001-2002 as the worst winter for the country as of now. The good news is that even in that horrible winter and record warmth, we saw at least one snowfall amount that gave us a few inches so we should be able to get at least one accumulating snowfall event, I hope. totally agree with the 01-02 statement..I mean the warmth across most of the USA since September has been similar..I guess mother nature is giving us a payback for the last 2 winters..guess you have to grin and take it..we were due a big clunker..can't control the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 People, people, people, we are not even at 3 official weeks of winter, theres a lot of winter still to go! No doubt things are finally changing for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Can't blame The Weather Channel pretty much doing taped programming tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 On 1/7/2012 at 2:30 AM, tmagan said: Can't blame The Weather Channel pretty much doing taped programming tonight. I don't really have a problem with it on a night like tonight. But it should be suspended when there is a good-sized weather event going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 0z GFS = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 On 1/7/2012 at 4:51 AM, Snow88 said: 0z GFS = Who cares anymore this is boring the cold and snow are always 15 days away. Give me 65 and sun if it won't snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 On 1/7/2012 at 5:09 AM, nycsnow said: Who cares anymore this is boring the cold and snow are always 15 days away. Give me 65 and sun if it won't snow 0z GEFS is way different than the op in the mid to long range. Much colder with a deep trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 6:46 PM, easternsnowman said: Another sign the pattern is changing is that the warministas have not spoken for awhile. Actually don't mind a little bit of snow, except when I have to shovel my roof, hire a front end loader so I can get cars out of the garage and shovel a path across the lawn to get oil delivered. Hate the bitter, wind driven cold. Don't understand what is so great about numb skin and huge heating oil bills. But I understand this is a pro snow and cold board, so I respect the establishment. I was getting a bit nervous about some of the indicators of late but Wes's CWG post today brought me in from the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Surprised no one mentioned the 00z CMC. It has an event following the rainstorm, and it looks ok at the 850 level. Too bad it's the only model that I know of that has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 On 1/7/2012 at 5:09 AM, nycsnow said: Who cares anymore this is boring the cold and snow are always 15 days away. Give me 65 and sun if it won't snow You are welcome with the warministas. We have short-term memberships available. We also have cookies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 That was still nice to see on the 12z GFS, even though it's suppressed. Maybe before the GFS was just being clueless and said, "I'll just repeat myself". Given this pattern, we actually could have 2 cutoffs, so I hope it wouldn't lock on to that for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS is fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I need to move to a climate where 40" of snow is guaranteed in a bad winter. This is ridiculous. I bought new boots and scarves this year and I can't even wear them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 On 1/7/2012 at 5:08 PM, Snow88 said: GFS is fine With the -PNA and SE ridge, we are on the edge of the torch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Now this is January.... 61 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Its 65 degrees on the blizzard of 1996's anniversary, lmao Atleast after the rainstorm the euro keeps us cold with a storm building over the lower plains at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 On 1/7/2012 at 6:59 PM, CooL said: Its 65 degrees on the blizzard of 1996's anniversary, lmao Atleast after the rainstorm the euro keeps us cold with a storm building over the lower plains at day 10. You remember what happened ten days after the 1996 blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 On 1/7/2012 at 7:03 PM, tmagan said: You remember what happened ten days after the 1996 blizzard? pattern broke down and we torched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 On 1/7/2012 at 7:05 PM, CooL said: pattern broke down and we torched? About as warm and wet a January rainstorm as you will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Very disgusting out there right now. Even embarrasing if you expect a tourist from the Deep South to expect and enjoy typical wintry weather up here at this time. I cringe when I do not observe New Yorkers getting crippled by cold air. I want them to not have the will to go outside; be overly dressed; and to have the heat on 24/7 during sub-10*F arctic air. That is my inner weenie's dream for any winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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