CooL Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Lets roll.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 308 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011 VALID 12Z SAT DEC 31 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 03 2012 ...SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE 140TH MERIDIAN WEST. THIS CAUSES SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CEASE ON SATURDAY/ AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THE GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. BY SUNDAY...THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GEFS MEAN PROGRESS THE TROUGH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THE FLOW IS SO AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM...A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS MAKES SENSE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF GOES A STEP TOO FAR BY DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHICH MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO SLOW/STRONG WITH SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE...BUT ITS SOLUTION IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. STARTED WITH A 40/40/20 COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN EARLY ON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER. PRESSURE-WISE...THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 That is quite a robust PNA ridge on the euro ensembles, much more aggressive than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Henry Marguisity says the Jan 4th storm will not happen because the NAO is too positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Expect a blizzard. Henry Marguisity says the Jan 4th storm will not happen because the NAO is too positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Based on his recent postings he seems to think that the NAO is the sole factor whether there is snow in the East or not. I sure hope he has more meteorological intelligence than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Based on his recent postings he seems to think that the NAO is the sole factor whether there is snow in the East or not. I sure hope he has more meteorological intelligence than that. If the ridge is really that amplifed out West, like on the Euro, there can be a big storm. However, the antecedent airmass looks warm and there's nothing to prevent it from going to our west. So it looks like likely to be a rainstorm, for the coastal plain at least. I think we should root for it to explode to our west and influence a -NAO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Based on his recent postings he seems to think that the NAO is the sole factor whether there is snow in the East or not. I sure hope he has more meteorological intelligence than that. Many people think that, it depends quite a bit on what the pattern is over the Western U.S. Any sort of progressive sort of pattern, even with a temporary big West Coast ridge, its quite hard to get a major snow event for the coast with a +NAO because the shortwaves will generally want to amplify too early resulting in a storm that turns the corner fast. But a pattern like the 00Z Euro showed where that ridge basically sits in the same place from 144-240 hours is one where a significant coastal snow event can occur with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Many people think that, it depends quite a bit on what the pattern is over the Western U.S. Any sort of progressive sort of pattern, even with a temporary big West Coast ridge, its quite hard to get a major snow event for the coast with a +NAO because the shortwaves will generally want to amplify too early resulting in a storm that turns the corner fast. But a pattern like the 00Z Euro showed where that ridge basically sits in the same place from 144-240 hours is one where a significant coastal snow event can occur with a +NAO. I agree with this somewhat. The 0z Euro does have another s/w diving into Tennessee Valley at 240hr. The 1/2-1/4 storm becoming the new PV over Quebec and enhancing a -NAO, could set this up better for us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The 12z NAM is forecasting some of the coldest temps we have seen so far this season, teens possible far NW burbs Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Are these highs or Lows? The 12z NAM is forecasting some of the coldest temps we have seen so far this season, teens possible far NW burbs Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Are these highs or Lows? Lows, as the maps are Thu AM on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS shows snow showers for Friday. The surface is warm but the 850's are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 12 GFS plays with a different s/w coming out of the NW this time around...more euro like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS shows snow showers for Friday. The surface is warm but the 850's are cold enough. Can we please stop with the "show showers" posts. They hardly every verify and with the surface that warm, were going to need a lot more to see flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Can we please stop with the "show showers" posts. They hardly every verify and with the surface that warm, were going to need a lot more to see flakes. It looks like the GFS is following the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 12 GFS plays with a different s/w coming out of the NW this time around...more euro like I'm failing to see any significant differences so far between the 6z GFS and the 12Z GFS at 500mb through 105hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Still major differences between the GFS and Euro day 6 and beyond. It's probably going to be a few days before this is totally resolved. I think we need to sacrafice this storm for a better mid-month setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The 12z NAM is forecasting some of the coldest temps we have seen so far this season, teens possible far NW burbs Thursday Ive been in the teens a few times already and im nowhere near "far" north or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS is cold to start off next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Ridge axis sets up too far east on the GFS, looks nothing like the 00z ECMWF beyond day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS has a ridge in the east while the Euro has a deep trough for the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Nice and cold Monday-Wednesday before the truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Long range, week 2, GFS has a monster arctic high barreling down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS shows snow showers for Friday. The surface is warm but the 850's are cold enough. pretty hard to snow when you have a sw wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 thetrials and algreek are such jealous haters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 thetrials and algreek are such jealous haters No. I loved the Boxing day storm. My 3rd favorite storm of all time. If I lived in your area, I would rank Boxing Day and Jan. 1996 a tie, as both storms produced 25"-30" in your area. For my area: 1) 1996 (25"-30") 2) Jan. 26-27, 2011 (18"-20") 3) Boxing Day (14"-16") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 thetrials and algreek are such jealous haters jealousy and hate are sins and I posses neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Boxing day was the only snowstorm to make me lose power. That should tell you something. I'm not sure why alex is not as big a fan of boxing day because I saw pics of his block and it was pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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