uncle W Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 1996-97, 1998-99 and 1999-00 saw pretty sharp reversals in early January before reverting very mild again in February each time, it'll be interesting to see what happens this time if we do get a normal or slightly below normal January. mild Decembers and what followed...La Nina Years... year.....Dec...Jan...Feb... 1956...40.9...28.5...37.3 1971...40.8...35.1...31.4 1984...43.8...28.8...36.6 1998...43.2...33.9...38.9 1999...40.0...31.3...37.3 1956-57 1984-85 and 1999-00 had a cold January and a mild December and February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 well, that goes to what I am saying, you are talking about a real -AO but give me a list of storms that had an east based block that were substantial for NYC without a real ridge connection to the pole, i bet they number less than 3 Substantial for this winter would be 4 inch or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 GFS amplifying heights in the NW much more than 6z and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 check out that s/w coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 No cigar it looms like boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 No cigar it looms like boys. What does that mean? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The GFS unloads the arctic on the area next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 What does that mean? RossI That ridge just wants to push east and nothing can stop it,its ashame what can happen if we had the slightest blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Pretty big differences between the 6z and 12z gfs. 12z has a stronger shortwave and a more amplified ridge in the west and east. 1st pic 6z 2nd pic 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 We need the heights to rise even more to have a chance on the West coast a bit further west as well. It trended in the right direction at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 What does that mean? Rossi The trough is too broad and the northern low takes over for an arctic front with some LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The GFS unloads the arctic on the area next week. It will not be quite as cold due to the overall lack of snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It will not be quite as cold due to the overall lack of snow cover. Colder than what we have been experiencing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Pretty big differences between the 6z and 12z gfs. 12z has a stronger shortwave and a more amplified ridge in the west and east. 1st pic 6z 2nd pic 12z what? these maps looks identical for all intensive purposes. There are slight changes which mean absolutely nothing to the bigger picture. Nothing is going to bite with the NAO from hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 what? these maps looks identical for all intensive purposes. There are slight changes which mean absolutely nothing to the bigger picture. Nothing is going to bite with the NAO from hell Ridge position is well west and shortwave digs more and is stronger. In the end though, you are right. Small changes that dont impact anything in the big picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 with how strong the lakes low is, its cold and dry around here. nice deep trough but lack of blocking and there isnt time to spin something underneath it. at least the ski resorts up north finally have a decent week....to make snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 UKIE is a no-go as well at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Colder than what we have been experiencing Yeah, watch that extension of the Arctic high near Toronto. The models kept building it stronger heading into the cold back on the 18th. NYC should be able to manage a morning or two in the teens if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Extremely boring for the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Great- Cold and Dry weather... Sounds lovely.. 10-15 degrees - w/ wind and no snow = ****ty weather 25-30 degrees - w/ wind and snow = a weenie delight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Ridge position is well west and shortwave digs more and is stronger. In the end though, you are right. Small changes that dont impact anything in the big picture. Too much shortwave energy, goes into developing the Canadian vortex, first. Then any other s/w that tries to dig, after that gets sheared apart or kicked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Man, the GFS is a cold run for the area, thanks to the big PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Hour 372 there's a 1060 High in Canda. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Extremely boring for the next 7 days. The number of one foot or more snowstorms for Central Park during the first week of January -- two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 UKIE is a no-go as well at 12z. GGEM has the low well offshore. Hour 372 there's a 1060 High in Canda. Yikes! Really cold run for the area. Looks like a pattern change is on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Really cold run for the area. Looks like a pattern change is on the way Possibly. I'm obviously not smart enough to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The PNA ridge simply funnels arctic air down into the east. Without any blocking theres really no way a storm is going to come up the coast. I'd expect a decent cold shot in the medium range instead. At least it will be a break from this 40's crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Maybe we won't get a storm early-mid next week, but there's still a positive to this - at least the SE ridge is significantly weaker starting with the large trough this week and doesn't play as much of a role as it did over the last 2 months. The large trough signal on the models for early-mid next week is also a small step forward as we have yet to see a strong amplified trough move into the region and last for more than a day without being pushed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 the fact you haven't seen earthlight post in about 12 hours says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Ggem miss also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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