bass28 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It looks nothing like the 12z run so far. I quick posted that after I saw ur post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Front comes through at 138...no development. Huge trough over the entire Eastern 1/3 of the US...but the shortwave arrives late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Front comes through at 138...no development. Huge trough over the entire Eastern 1/3 of the US...but the shortwave arrives late to the party. Morning crew is gonna go crazy mad tomorrow john...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Front comes through at 138...no development. Huge trough over the entire Eastern 1/3 of the US...but the shortwave arrives late to the party. well that was certainly expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 well that was certainly expected. dude the storm is still very much there..stop being negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 well that was certainly expected. And why am I beating you for the weenie of the year? dude the storm is still very much there..stop being negative. Agree Bass. The signal is still there on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 So the 0z Euro has sped the potential time frame for the Day 7 storm (12z)to Day 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 the big ridge is still there, the huge trough is still there. So thats a positive, but it doesnt slow down and dig the s/w into the gulf like 12z.. Like John said, the s/w is a bit late to the party. There's still plenty of potential here so its worth watching still.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Still quite an impressive storm developing at hrs. 174 and 180, just further offshore than the previous run, much like the JMA was showing at day 7-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Lol, you guys are too much. The pattern has been terrible...keep things in perspective. We have gone several weeks without anything remotely interesting to track. This is not a huge threat where myself and a few others are going to be giddy like last winter...but it is something to watch for sure. That is a very anomalous ridge on the west coast -- and any time you see something like that, you definitely open your eyes a little bit. There are many things working against it, we all have had that drilled into our brains over the last two months, so we can't forget that. It's something to watch, and the potential definitely is there for a dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 As the long the potential is there that will still give a smile on my face. We just need a perfect setup and storm to be amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This setup which is so dependent on that western ridge which is itself dependent upon how the trough or upper low across the Pacific to its west behaves means we may see the models lose and gain this storm 2 or 3 times between now and next week. We saw last December how that setup out west caused models to have trouble resolving the 12/17-12/18 storm that never was and the 12/26 mega storm, and that was with a -NAO, add the +NAO and it makes the situation even harder on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 The problem with this system is that there is nothing really to get it going other than the ridge itself. So if the ridge isn't in perfect position, as we've seen on tonights models, the storm won't develop in time and the trough will bring cold and dry conditions. Without the blocking to help amplify the flow underneath it, we are relying on the ridge and a well timed shortwave. It's been done before, but it feels like picking out needles from a haystack compared to what we've experienced the past two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 A little like Boxing Day set up with +PNA, but neutral EPO and +NAO will give a punch in our faces. Still a bit of a sh*tty setup. Angry Birds comes in quite useful this winter with the crappy pattern. OT: Ikea Swedish meatballs at the Ikea food restaurant are really delicious, no Swedes around unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 -NAO is what we really need and that setup a block so the storm will never go too far inland. That would bring a good coastal track and with colder air getting drawn that would mean snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Well, at least the 0z Euro has some significant changes in the overall 7-10 day pattern. It shows a split-flow Aleutian low, a displaced PV over Quebec and a pseudo omega block in the North Atlantic. The PV from the 12 Euro run over the North Atlantic has weakened considerably in the 0z Euro. Also, this helps a bit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The problem with this system is that there is nothing really to get it going other than the ridge itself. So if the ridge isn't in perfect position, as we've seen on tonights models, the storm won't develop in time and the trough will bring cold and dry conditions. Without the blocking to help amplify the flow underneath it, we are relying on the ridge and a well timed shortwave. It's been done before, but it feels like picking out needles from a haystack compared to what we've experienced the past two winters. i found myself tonight watching the trends with the ridge on the models tonight. Last year, we were all watching the models to see if we got a phase, closed low etc.. while we already had the ridge and blocking in place...Its definitley a different feel and i agree this event is so dependent on the ridge so that it can amplify the trough and send the s/w shooting down through the plains. It can still happen though and its the best threat since october, but hopefully the pattern changes soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Without the negative AO and NAO it feels like Humpty is going to fall off the wall and break into a million pieces before a snowstorm is even a remote possibility this winter. We need a SSW that penetrates in the Arctic latitudes to get the Blocking and -NAO back into equation. This looks like our turd winter we were due. The turd ball seems to be the wild card dealt to us unfortunately. It is just like Winnie the Pooh, with just the last part of his name to put into perspective. You all know it is really bad when a snow eating storm like this past event had no snow to eat away. It feels like one moved from Prince Edward Island to Norfolk from last year to current winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 i found myself tonight watching the trends with the ridge on the models tonight. Last year, we were all watching the models to see if we got a phase, closed low etc.. while we already had the ridge and blocking in place...Its definitley a different feel and i agree this event is so dependent on the ridge so that it can amplify the trough and send the s/w shooting down through the plains. It can still happen though and its the best threat since october, but hopefully the pattern changes soon. True. I think people have lower expectations now, so they don't get as upset with each model run. Still, it CAN snow with a +NAO, and the pieces we would need are on the models more than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Interesting how the ECM tonight almost looks like the most progressive model that there is? Could this be an indication that the ECM tonight is being to progressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Woulnt get hung up on overall -NAO. We just don't want it raging positive in conduction with the AO. Neutral would give us a lot better chance. But that's talk for another thread. While the huge -NAO block spoiled us the previous 2 winters, it's not the be all, end all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro does not look as amplified at 108 hours...if it's going to show a big storm, it's going to have to be done a different way. The 12z run was much more amplified with the shortwave coming down the ridge at this point. It is not too dissimilar to the ensembles idea of putting much more emphasis on the first trough which allows a large confluent mean trough to form over the US. It remains to be seen if any shortwaves can dive south and amplify. Nothing too dramatic through 114hrs. I agree. The 0z Euro has changed the trough evolution, from past runs. There is more shortwave energy now being handed off to into developing a ULL over Canada first. Just like what the GFS was yesterday. Except the GFS wasn't showing more shortwaves digging much after that. So the both models kind of shifted towards each other. The problem with other shortwaves becoming a storm for us, is that either have to deal being sheared by Canadian ULL, or another shortwave on it's heels. I wouldn't be surprised if this threat gets pushed back a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 In any event, the coldest weather of the season looks to be coming in behind the storm system with the first lows below 20 for NYC showing up in the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 1996-97, 1998-99 and 1999-00 saw pretty sharp reversals in early January before reverting very mild again in February each time, it'll be interesting to see what happens this time if we do get a normal or slightly below normal January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I am not a big fan of the GFS ensembles past day 10, but it would be neat if it was picking out a pattern change for the Atlantic in about two weeks like we saw back in 99-2000. The December pattern was similar to this year. At least the Euro is trying to break even on AO in the 6-10 day. ??????? sadly, we would change to an east based nao, that really only makes up colder. Look were the negative height anomolies line up, OFF that coast, I.E suppression and I don't think any of us really want to bank on a January 2000 miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 sadly, we would change to an east based nao, that really only makes up colder. Look were the negative height anomolies line up, OFF that coast, I.E suppression and I don't think any of us really want to bank on a January 2000 miracle At least if we could get an east based NAO, then we would have some opportunities. My guess is that if that 360 verified, there would probably be more ridging out west with it still showing the ridge east of the Caspian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 At least if we could get an east based NAO, then we would have some opportunities. My guess is that if that 360 verified, there would probably be more ridging out west with it still showing the ridge east of the Caspian. I really dont think it changes much, maybe when the NAO relaxes we could squeeze something in, but then you are walking the tight rope again, but in that setup like you posted, its swing and a miss for anything more than 4 inches IMHO. Actually, DC stands to do better in that setup than we do. We need the warming to get on our side of the globe so that we can start connecting the AO and NAO, then, and only then, do we finally destroy that pig vortex over greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Lol, you guys are too much. The pattern has been terrible...keep things in perspective. We have gone several weeks without anything remotely interesting to track. This is not a huge threat where myself and a few others are going to be giddy like last winter...but it is something to watch for sure. That is a very anomalous ridge on the west coast -- and any time you see something like that, you definitely open your eyes a little bit. There are many things working against it, we all have had that drilled into our brains over the last two months, so we can't forget that. It's something to watch, and the potential definitely is there for a dynamic system. I would add that we're going to need a pattern change to have much a chance here. There are two changes that seem to be occurring but they are not genuine global pattern changes and they maybe be transient as they have been the past two months. One, we are seeing more amplification in the jet stream with deeper low pressure systems and this can enable one of these systems to be a pattern changer. But so far, we are not seeing that pattern change. Two, we are seeing somewhat colder air available if conditions are right for drawing it se-ward from Canada. But still, without some high lattitude blocking and a well timed phase-up, we will likely continue to see storms tracks over us, just west of us, or too far offshore and the cold shots followed by rain and milder temperatures along with high winds with and the wake of storm systems. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I really dont think it changes much, maybe when the NAO relaxes we could squeeze something in, but then you are walking the tight rope again, but in that setup like you posted, its swing and a miss for anything more than 4 inches IMHO. Actually, DC stands to do better in that setup than we do. We need the warming to get on our side of the globe so that we can start connecting the AO and NAO, then, and only then, do we finally destroy that pig vortex over greenland. I don't mind east based blocks as long as we can get some ridging in tandem west of Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I don't mind east based blocks as long as we can get some ridging in tandem west of Hudson Bay. well, that goes to what I am saying, you are talking about a real -AO but give me a list of storms that had an east based block that were substantial for NYC without a real ridge connection to the pole, i bet they number less than 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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