earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Well, it has the big ridge now -- but it's not quite as anomalous as the Euro. In addition, there isn't much energy to work with. So we've seen a trend towards the Euro with the upper air pattern in general, but it doesn't look like anything of interest is coming in regards to a storm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 incredible differences by day 5 with the ridge out west. GFS certainly does not have a good handle on the pacific pattern. Also what allows that ridge to be more amplified it the pacific low is like 250 miles nw of its 18z position. Curious to see if the cmc/euro hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 OP looks like the 18z ensembles now. There is a ridge, but just not quick enough to get the amplificaiton the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 GFS a lot more amped than 18z still not as far west as the Euro though at 102hrs. Yeah it's also highly unfavorable with positioning of the energy over the Great Lakes at 120-126...the Euro was a completely different solution by that point with the potential for amplification well farther west. It also had a shortwave racing south down the east side of the big ridge at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 gfs also putting a lot of emphasis on the short wave ahead of the ridge, whereas the euro is showing that energy further back over the ridge, big difference there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Not really a bad run at all--a definite trend towards the Euro with the upper level trough around 84 hours which is increasing the likelihood that we are going to pump up this ridge on the west coast. We will have to deal with the finer details..including the individual shortwaves...thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Here she comes at 150...well too far east...but it does have the big shortwave diving south over the ridge that the Euro has at a similar time. That shortwave at 150 hours is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Visual.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Here she comes at 150...well too far east...but it does have the big shortwave diving south over the ridge that the Euro has at a similar time. That shortwave at 150 hours is a beast. What a shock to the system that air is going to be......first real artic chill of the season and the lake regions are going to make up for the snow departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 00z GGEM @ 144 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 00z GGEM @ 144 hrs Looks like a pretty strong signal for a storm somewhere around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 00z UKMET @ 144 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 00z GGEM @ 144 hrs It looks like the 00z GGEM holds serve from the 12z GGEM. It continues to show a very amplified pattern, and as a result it holds serve. Seeing the 00z GFS trend towards the 00z GGEM/12z ECMWF makes me interested, and makes me wonder if the CMC/ECMWF have the right general idea of a monster +PNA, and the GFS is simply playing catch-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 At least we're seeing models converge on the idea of a strong ridge that can produce an interesting storm down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 The GGEM doesn't look terribly far off from the 12z run, but it also is nowhere near as wrapped up as the Euro. The GFS is obviously light years away. We'll see more when we get the color/ewall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 00z UKMET @ 144 hrs The 00z UKMET's placement of the ridge in the west is a bit too far east for my liking, but it is nice to see it show an amplified pattern like most of the other models are currently showing for the d7-d8 timeframe. Beautiful trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Here is the color map at 144. Actually not a terrible look...that surface low would likely tug north and west and strengthen rapidly. You can see the PVA going wild in the base of the trough at this exact frame. You can also see the H7 RH field nicely. Luckily for us the surface low is already near our latitude so it wouldn't come overhead like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 The 00z UKMET's placement of the ridge in the west is a bit too far east for my liking, but it is nice to see it show an amplified pattern like most of the other models are currently showing for the d7-d8 timeframe. Beautiful trough in the east. That is way too far east...pretty similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 How does this compare to Feb 2006, what is the time frame for any possible event? At the very least, if we don't get anything, it will turn pretty cold. On the gfs, it looks like highs would be in the 20s easily. Such a massive ridge in the west and such an amplified pattern will usually lead to something so I'm definitely interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 That is way too far east...pretty similar to the GFS. The axis of this monster +PNA ridge in the west will be everything in terms of where this storm will go, since it is essentially the driving mechanism for this storm. It is supplying all of the cold air by producing an amplified pattern, and it is also making the pieces of energy amplified enough to produce a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Then we have the 00z NOGAPS which is in about the same position as the 00z GFS but 12 hrs sooner at 156 instead of 168 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This system, if it eventuates actually has potential to be similar to 12/30/00 and the 2/2010 storm where SNE got shafted and NYC did well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This system, if it eventuates actually has potential to be similar to 12/30/00 and the 2/2010 storm where SNE got shafted and NYC did well. The "Snowicane" was one of the wildest storms I have witnessed in my 16 yrs in Orange County.. Please donot tease me like that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 At this point, it would be most prudent to go with a 0z GGEM and a 12z Euro ensemble compromise. The 12z Euro and 18z GFS are the most extreme solutions. Also, there is not much favorable tropical forcing near the International Date Line in the Pacific Ocean, as evidenced by the weak MJO phases. This would prevent robust convection in the Central Pacific, which would reduce the strength of the upper-level low there. Thus, the downstream ridging over the Rockies would not be so strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The "Snowicane" was one of the wildest storms I have witnessed in my 16 yrs in Orange County.. Please donot tease me like that.. Best storm I have witnessed in Dobbs Ferry, 26" snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro does not look as amplified at 108 hours...if it's going to show a big storm, it's going to have to be done a different way. The 12z run was much more amplified with the shortwave coming down the ridge at this point. It is not too dissimilar to the ensembles idea of putting much more emphasis on the first trough which allows a large confluent mean trough to form over the US. It remains to be seen if any shortwaves can dive south and amplify. Nothing too dramatic through 114hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 570 dm heights into British Columbia again at 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro looks to be holding again....lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Can't see the shortwave but you can see a bend in the height contours..it looks like it's coming in a hair too late this run...but it is definitely there. The pattern is extremely amplified across the entire US at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro looks to be holding again....lets see. It looks nothing like the 12z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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