Amped Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 54F up here at my parents house in SW CT. Wonder if we get 60'd by this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 54F up here at my parents house in SW CT. Wonder if we get 60'd by this one. Def. more likely near the NJ shore than anywhere...but it's only 57 near ACY with a SE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 54F up here at my parents house in SW CT. Wonder if we get 60'd by this one. No one is really torching, I think 55 would be about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Hrrrrrr nailed the precip look at radar looks just like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 That GFS run shows a massive ice storm at 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 The 18z DGEX agrees with the GFS' general idea -- not enthused with the threat, but does bring some seriously cold air into the Northeast by Day 7-8. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/f186.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 The tail end of the 18z GEFS remain pretty good...at least comparatively to what we're experiencing now. +12 to +18 500hpa height anomalies showing up East of Greenland trying to extend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 18z gefs like the 132-144 hours time frame, 1 -2 days earlier than the euro fits in with the euro's slow bias as noted by hpc i think the ooz gfs tonight shows more amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Kind of sad when the NOGAPS which is the most progressive biased model has more amplification at 144 hrs then the GFS... Thats usually been a good indicator in the past that the GFS or some other model is out to lunch when the NOGAPS shows a more amplified scenario. My guess is the GFS picks up the storm some time in the next 6 runs, so that means it should have it by the early morning 6Z run on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Thats usually been a good indicator in the past that the GFS or some other model is out to lunch when the NOGAPS shows a more amplified scenario. My guess is the GFS picks up the storm some time in the next 6 runs, so that means it should have it by the early morning 6Z run on Thursday. an amplified and within 300 miles of the coast Nogaps is actually a something to pay attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 an amplified and within 300 miles of the coast Nogaps is actually a something to pay attention to. Game set match... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 an amplified and within 300 miles of the coast Nogaps is actually a something to pay attention to. There was discussion last year that the NOGAPS being a progressive model is likely to be exceptionally poor during La Ninas or patterns with lack of blocking because its bias is likely enhanced in those scenarios. The fact we have both going right now and its THAT close to the coast probably magnifies the importance of the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Game set match... I was about to post that the NOGAPS also has the pig ridge we've been seeing on the more amplified models. Definitely interesting. What happens in the Pacific is really important...the models that have the big ridge have a cutoff low in the Pacific that forces the ridge to amplify to the east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I was about to post that the NOGAPS also has the pig ridge we've been seeing on the more amplified models. Definitely interesting. What happens in the Pacific is really important...the models that have the big ridge have a cutoff low in the Pacific that forces the ridge to amplify to the east of that. If that ridge is for real, I'm expecting some seriously fun 0z runs tonight. And just think, the BZ is virtually untapped with regards to potential to enhance the output that a Miller A cyclone could produce, should it materialize down the road. I'm encouraged tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 If that ridge is for real, I'm expecting some seriously fun 0z runs tonight. And just think, the BZ is virtually untapped with regards to potential to enhance the output that a Miller A cyclone could produce, should it materialize down the road. I'm encouraged tonight. plenty of ridges produce cold dry troughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Finally something to track, even though we have need deep ridge to produce what the Euro shows, but at least it shows potential for what could be a rather interesting storm. On the other hand, it's pretty awesome out there right now, heavy rains and strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 And plenty of troughs produce storms, even if they give a "lighter" snow. A near neutral or weakly positive NAO is better than the raging NAO we have now. plenty of ridges produce cold dry troughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 plenty of ridges produce cold dry troughs Thanks snoop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 If that ridge is for real, I'm expecting some seriously fun 0z runs tonight. And just think, the BZ is virtually untapped with regards to potential to enhance the output that a Miller A cyclone could produce, should it materialize down the road. I'm encouraged tonight. I'd urge caution here. The storm is still over a wee away, for one, so I think we need to understand that the Euro solution from earlier is likely a very small percentage chance. The NAO state is going to make it really tough for us to get much frozen precipitation. That being said..I am interested at this time in the potential for a significant storm system regardless of precipitation type. In such a boring pattern, seeing a signal at this range is definitely more exciting than it would normally be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 And plenty of troughs produce storms, even if they give a "lighter" snow. A near neutral or weakly positive NAO is better than the raging NAO we have now. Just trying to temper expectations, people see the euro throw out a KU storm and take it as gospel, but for as weenie as the gfs is sometimes, the euro has its moments too, and frankly more now after its last upgrade then ever before. There is a reason it got the nickname Dr. NO because it always seemed to ruin the weenie party back in the day but that all seemed to stop in 08-09 when the euro was showing snow bombs pretty regularly later in the winter none of which ever materialized. And just last week, it did the same thing for xmas. Odds favor a shallower less amplified trough with a glancing blow or as you say, lighter snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Game set match... I like crappy models like the Nogaps, it's mistakes are consistent, usually way too progressive at 180hrs. However I am not excited about the northern stream allowing for any southern cutoffs this year. So the Nogaps may work fine in this pattern unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I'd urge caution here. The storm is still over a wee away, for one, so I think we need to understand that the Euro solution from earlier is likely a very small percentage chance. The NAO state is going to make it really tough for us to get much frozen precipitation. That being said..I am interested at this time in the potential for a significant storm system regardless of precipitation type. In such a boring pattern, seeing a signal at this range is definitely more exciting than it would normally be. Of course John. I like the Euro/Euro Ens consistency with regards to their placement of of the ridge anomalies, both in the PNA area and the temporary look of the Western Atlantic. Lot's of time and in this pattern anything could still go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Just trying to temper expectations, people see the euro throw out a KU storm and take it as gospel, but for as weenie as the gfs is sometimes, the euro has its moments too, and frankly more now after its last upgrade then ever before. There is a reason it got the nickname Dr. NO because it always seemed to ruin the weenie party back in the day but that all seemed to stop in 08-09 when the euro was showing snow bombs pretty regularly later in the winter none of which ever materialized. And just last week, it did the same thing for xmas. Odds favor a shallower less amplified trough with a glancing blow or as you say, lighter snow. happy 10,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Just trying to temper expectations, people see the euro throw out a KU storm and take it as gospel, but for as weenie as the gfs is sometimes, the euro has its moments too, and frankly more now after its last upgrade then ever before. There is a reason it got the nickname Dr. NO because it always seemed to ruin the weenie party back in the day but that all seemed to stop in 08-09 when the euro was showing snow bombs pretty regularly later in the winter none of which ever materialized. And just last week, it did the same thing for xmas. Odds favor a shallower less amplified trough with a glancing blow or as you say, lighter snow. It did have that one weenie run at 00z on the 19th, we'll see if it develops any continuity tonight and or gain some kind of support from the GFS/GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It did have that one weenie run at 00z on the 19th, we'll see if it develops any continuity tonight and or gain some kind of support from the GFS/GEFS. no no ,it has easily 4 in a row. Anyway, I won't be staying up to find out. Not for a 7 day threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Through 90 hours the 00z GFS is more consolidated and stronger with the upper level trough around the longitude of Hawaii. This is allowing the ridge over the Eastern Pacific to strengthen and remain farther west. I would venture to guess that this run would at least be more defined with the trough over the East by Day 7-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Through 90 hours the 00z GFS is more consolidated and stronger with the upper level trough around the longitude of Hawaii. This is allowing the ridge over the Eastern Pacific to strengthen and remain farther west. I would venture to guess that this run would at least be more defined with the trough over the East by Day 7-8. Taking a good steo to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Taking a good steo to the euro. In that regard, yes. It's not quite as amplified as the Euro with that feature yet. But it remains to be seen how it will handle the pattern as it evolves farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 It's amazing how you can see the differences at 84-90 hours and almost project what the model will show based on that one feature. The GFS was way more progressive and de-amplified with that upper air trough over the Pacific at 12 and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 GFS a lot more amped than 18z still not as far west as the Euro though at 102hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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