supermeh Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro/GFS comparison. Crazy differences: This is too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 This one has peaked my interest and it'll be nice to track something. Timing would pose the risk between 1/3 and 1/5 so i'm sure we'll have some big changes in the next few cycles and right up to the the threat is in the short range. This window of opportunity may define much of January with an overall unfavorable pattern with brief windows of opportunity mainly influenced by that 'projected' strong ridge building into the rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 308 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011 VALID 12Z SAT DEC 31 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 03 2012 ...SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE 140TH MERIDIAN WEST. THIS CAUSES SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CEASE ON SATURDAY/ AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THE GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. BY SUNDAY...THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GEFS MEAN PROGRESS THE TROUGH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THE FLOW IS SO AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM...A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS MAKES SENSE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF GOES A STEP TOO FAR BY DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHICH MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO SLOW/STRONG WITH SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE...BUT ITS SOLUTION IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. STARTED WITH A 40/40/20 COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN EARLY ON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER. PRESSURE-WISE...THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 If there was a classic block, we'll all be screaming at the possible major snowstorm, ECMWF has quite a strong trough in our area; classic looking trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 High degree of variance for sure -- but the signal for a significant system is definitely there. We'll see how this develops on the guidance over the next few days. True, the Euro has been calling for a big amplification since last Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah I'm sitting here trying to think if there has ever been a KU in that type of pattern...I do not think there has been...at least in the past 60 years. Probably at some point in history there was a crazy storm like shown. Most of the time it will usually go negative too early and torch us or the vortmax doesn't quite phase and you end up with a sheared out anafrontal wave. It has to be perfect. The huge ridge gives it a chance, but even with it, still a lot of luck involved. the best case would be that the euro has the right idea, but is slightly overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 i know it's a longer range MJO forecast, but this is promising. 1st time i've seen a projected (albeit weak) phase 7 forecast. The mjo forecasts, from the gfs, has trended moreso to a possible phase 7 MJO. We'll see if she holds serve. But it is promising nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Apparently the Euro ensembles have a low around the benchmark on Saturday for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 i know it's a longer range MJO forecast, but this is promising. 1st time i've seen a projected (albeit weak) phase 7 forecast. The mjo forecasts, from the gfs, has trended moreso to a possible phase 7 MJO. We'll see if she holds serve. But it is promising nonetheless. The bias corrected MJO keeps it generally weak -- and then actually loops it towards Phase 4. Just something to keep in mind. MJO forecasts have been very poor beyond 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The bias corrected MJO keeps it generally weak -- and then actually loops it towards Phase 4. Just something to keep in mind. MJO forecasts have been very poor beyond 5 days. Yea, i figure it's a long shot. Just wanted to put it out there for disco. ANyone have a link for the ukie/euro mjo forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah I'm sitting here trying to think if there has ever been a KU in that type of pattern...I do not think there has been...at least in the past 60 years. Probably at some point in history there was a crazy storm like shown. Most of the time it will usually go negative too early and torch us or the vortmax doesn't quite phase and you end up with a sheared out anafrontal wave. It has to be perfect. The huge ridge gives it a chance, but even with it, still a lot of luck involved. Maybe February 2006? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 The difference in the amplification of the ridge out west stems from a mid-Pacific trough. The ECMWF is deepening this feature much more rapidly and forces the development of a large ridge to its east. The GFS has this feature weaker and split in two entities. The features then slide eastward and keep the pattern comparatively progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Here are those differences rolled forward for comparisons sake.. 168hr: http://policlimate.com/weather/ecmwf/2011122712/ec_gfs_z_panel_8.png 192hr: http://policlimate.com/weather/ecmwf/2011122712/ec_gfs_z_panel_9.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The new ECMF forecast based on climo, has the MJO going in between phases 6 and 7, before weakening next week. This has been trending stronger: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 from will (ORH) in the mid atlantic thread on the euro ensembles: "FWIW the Euro ensembles out to 156 do hint at the storm...its obviously quite smoothed by the time you get out that far, but it has the monster ridge out west...the ensembles don't dig the trough nearly as much as the OP run which is not a surprise at all, but at least it has the big ridge out west." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 The new ECMF forecast based on climo, has the MJO going in between phases 6 and 7, before weakening next week. This has been trending stronger. This is at least slightly encouraging..the MJO has been highly unfavorable since November. Hopefully the guidance is not totally out to lunch. A stronger impulse into Phases 6-8 would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Maybe February 2006? That had a great ridge out west, but the Atlantic side was better back in 2006 compared to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 12 Z ECM means sure do show amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 12 Z ECM means sure do show amplification That monster PNA destroys the southeast ridge as well. The best map we have seen so far this winter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 If true, would make a nice Gulf of Tehuantepec wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 That had a great ridge out west, but the Atlantic side was better back in 2006 compared to now. Yup I guess you are correct. It was a transient better looking Atlantic but better looking nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS still trying to develop something along the coast at 90 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 OP GFS at 18z is not at all enthused with the threat...continues a progressive pattern over the Pacific. Without the ridge to slow down the pattern, the big upper level trough winds up hundreds of miles farther east/northeast with the base of the trough over the NW Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 OP GFS at 18z is not at all enthused with the threat...continues a progressive pattern over the Pacific. Without the ridge to slow down the pattern, the big upper level trough winds up hundreds of miles farther east/northeast with the base of the trough over the NW Atlantic. Have to side mostly with the GFS for the time being after it schooled the euro and its super bomb it was showing several runs in a row last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Kind of sad when the NOGAPS which is the most progressive biased model has more amplification at 144 hrs then the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 On second look, the gfs is actually in 100% agreement with the EURO at 300 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS fantasy storm is cold enough at the surface, but 300 hours is definite fantasy. I wish the GFS would be in agreement closer in. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F27%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=300&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS fantasy storm is cold enough at the surface, but 300 hours is definite fantasy. I wish the GFS would be in agreement closer in. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M dude, it was a joke, you got that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 dude, it was a joke, you got that right? Must be the rain....its getting to everyones head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 dude, it was a joke, you got that right? Yep. But it was the only thing the GFS is showing except for the clippers. I definitely got the sarcasm. Sorry if it looked like I did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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