rgwp96 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 do we have a link to the quote from Mt. Holly? i don't think they have a FB page (just checked) you must not have looked to hard http://www.facebook.com/pages/US-National-Weather-Service-PhiladelphiaMount-Holly/256261011073971 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Euro looks the same as last night...maybe a hair farther south, but throws back some more precip at 48 hours anyway. It's a shame, this thing really bombs out 6 hours later...we are a few hours away from getting nailed. Too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 The weenie maps from wunderground accumulate about an inch of snow, maybe a hair less, for mostly everyone throughout the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 you must not have looked to hard http://www.facebook....256261011073971 The NAEFS did a decent job with their long range forecast for this week made on December 24th. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 In the longer range, the GFS Operational really kills the AO. In fact, it brings it to near record-low levels. However, if you use the bias-adjusted progs you can see that solution is not totally supported. That being said, it looks like we are starting to gain some big time support for the AO dropping below -1 to -2 near Day 10 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 In the longer range, the GFS Operational really kills the AO. In fact, it brings it to near record-low levels. However, if you use the bias-adjusted progs you can see that solution is not totally supported. That being said, it looks like we are starting to gain some big time support for the AO dropping below -1 to -2 near Day 10 and beyond. John, having the ao go negative decently can help save us from the pacific not cooperating, and at least help not go completely into the crapper again, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 John, having the ao go negative decently can help save us from the pacific not cooperating, and at least help not go completely into the crapper again, right? It can make things a little easier for us, definitely. The Pacific doesn't look bad at all in the long range -- I guess you can argue that it's not "cooperating" because in an ideal situation, we'd want a big PNA ridge etc. But having the -PNA and the ridge near the Aleutians extending towards the Pole is not a terrible look for us. What comes into play if we get that type of setup, is the Atlantic side. It becomes important for us to see some semblance of high latitude ridging in the North Atlantic extending towards Greenland. Having that in place can help us tremendously if we do in fact get a -PNA type pattern with a N-S gradient of arctic air to the east of that. What likely would transpire is an active pattern out west with plenty of shortwaves moving east across the CONUS. As you can imagine there would be a sharp gradient across the Northern 1/3 of the CONUS with the new availability of arctic air. However, without any blocking (or in the worst case, a +NAO), we could very easily be on the wrong side of the gradient as the storms move east. So that would be the main thing I would look for through the long range, if you're looking for a snowy pattern. I think it's already set in stone that we are heading towards a generally colder pattern, with the re-adjustments in the Pacific and the forecast dip of the AO. But exactly how snowy it ends up, even through February, will likely be determined by the cooperation on both the Pacific and the Atlantic side...not just one of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 With the phrase 'pattern change' being used ad infinitum, it will not be later this week, if anything, it will be toward the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It can make things a little easier for us, definitely. The Pacific doesn't look bad at all in the long range -- I guess you can argue that it's not "cooperating" because in an ideal situation, we'd want a big PNA ridge etc. But having the -PNA and the ridge near the Aleutians extending towards the Pole is not a terrible look for us. What comes into play if we get that type of setup, is the Atlantic side. It becomes important for us to see some semblance of high latitude ridging in the North Atlantic extending towards Greenland. Having that in place can help us tremendously if we do in fact get a -PNA type pattern with a N-S gradient of arctic air to the east of that. What likely would transpire is an active pattern out west with plenty of shortwaves moving east across the CONUS. As you can imagine there would be a sharp gradient across the Northern 1/3 of the CONUS with the new availability of arctic air. However, without any blocking (or in the worst case, a +NAO), we could very easily be on the wrong side of the gradient as the storms move east. So that would be the main thing I would look for through the long range, if you're looking for a snowy pattern. I think it's already set in stone that we are heading towards a generally colder pattern, with the re-adjustments in the Pacific and the forecast dip of the AO. But exactly how snowy it ends up, even through February, will likely be determined by the cooperation on both the Pacific and the Atlantic side...not just one of the two. Nice, thanks. Over the years ive learned a lot about the different indices and such, but im still trying to learn how they all interact with each other, and how their strength affects our weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 John: Excellent post(s). I really learn a lot from ya. you bring a semblance of consistency and sanity to this forum. Keep it up. I was wondering if you are given any sort of pause by the NAEFS for week two temps. It seems that it did a good job with this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 -30 temps on the us canadian border at the end of the euro. 2M temps. BRRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Definitely not the best ECM run we've seen, but at least that Alaskan PV is gone and actually replaced with strong ridging near western AK: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The whole pattern change window is starting to slowly close by the way. Obviously a pattern change can happen multiple times a year but obviously in this winter the term pattern change means the chance for snow and that window is closing slowly. It's January 8, any change may happen January 15-20 and there is no guarantee. Once we enter February, the chance for snow is going to play against climatology, especially after mid February so it's only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Thank you, we're all quite aware of the stakes. You do realize it snowed in October this year right? We average plenty of snow from mid February on and can get plenty of snow in March The whole pattern change window is starting to slowly close by the way. Obviously a pattern change can happen multiple times a year but obviously in this winter the term pattern change means the chance for snow and that window is closing slowly. It's January 8, any change may happen January 15-20 and there is no guarantee. Once we enter February, the chance for snow is going to play against climatology, especially after mid February so it's only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Thank you, we're all quite aware of the stakes. You do realize it snowed in October this year right? We average plenty of snow from mid February on and can get plenty of snow in March nothing is working against snow in February, some of our best storms have come or formed in this month. Its the snowiest winter month by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The whole pattern change window is starting to slowly close by the way. Obviously a pattern change can happen multiple times a year but obviously in this winter the term pattern change means the chance for snow and that window is closing slowly. It's January 8, any change may happen January 15-20 and there is no guarantee. Once we enter February, the chance for snow is going to play against climatology, especially after mid February so it's only a matter of time. The pattern is changing right now as john as said but that doesnt necassarily mean its going to snow around here does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 nothing is working against snow in February, some of our best storms have come or formed in this month. Its the snowiest winter month by far. Yeah,even after the 60 degree days back in January 2008 we got our snow in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It seems like the pattern will change to seasonal or even slightly below which give most of us especially from philly north and maybe dc to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The whole pattern change window is starting to slowly close by the way. Obviously a pattern change can happen multiple times a year but obviously in this winter the term pattern change means the chance for snow and that window is closing slowly. It's January 8, any change may happen January 15-20 and there is no guarantee. Once we enter February, the chance for snow is going to play against climatology, especially after mid February so it's only a matter of time. Disagree about the chances for snow diminishing in Feb. If a favorable pattern were to emerge during the timetable you suggested, i think the chances for building a lasting snowpack are diminshed are compared to last year, but snow events in a favorable pattern in Feb are not against climo around here. After two months of waiting, at least some parts of the country are going to see big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It seems like the pattern will change to seasonal or even slightly below which give most of us especially from philly north and maybe dc to get snow. With the NAEFS temperature anomaly forecast, that prediction might have to be called into doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 With the NAEFS forecast, that forecast might have to be called into doubt. I believe the NAEFS will adjust if the data keeps supporting change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I believe the NAEFS will adjust if the data keeps supporting change. Relative to the means, the third week of the month should be colder than last week and this coming week. Any bump up in the PNA would allow a piece of colder air building up in Canada to come south. The details of any such amplification will have to wait until we get much closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Keep in mind now to have well below normal temperatures, you would have to have what happened earlier in the week, as we are just about in our climatological minimums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 92-93 had a grand total of 2" of snow going into February with 24-26" the remainder of the winter nothing is working against snow in February, some of our best storms have come or formed in this month. Its the snowiest winter month by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 nothing is working against snow in February, some of our best storms have come or formed in this month. Its the snowiest winter month by far. True: KNYC averages 8.8 inches in February, compared to just 7.0 in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 92-93 had a grand total of 2" of snow going into February with 24-26" the remainder of the winter 1991-92 I think had 1 inch and got 12 inches in 5 days in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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