earthlight Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think this is one of the Euro inside 72 hour blunders, there is virtually no support from any other models for that event anymore. The Euro as good as it is has never been one of my favorite models inside 72 hours, especially when the NAM/GFS both agree on something else. Well the 00z Euro ensembles are north as well..they actually bring the measurable QPF field as far north as Northwest MA at 54 hours. The mean is not as wet as the operational (looks like around .10")...but I mean hey, I'll take a half an inch in this pattern. Regardless..I found it pretty funny that many in this thread have been dying to see a flake...and completely missed the Euro showing a light snowfall less than 3 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The UKMET has been saying this for a couple of days and when it is further northwest three days out, it is an absolute red flag, but, Don't we want to go for the record for latest first snowfall in meteorological winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Well the 00z Euro ensembles are north as well..they actually bring the measurable QPF field as far north as Northwest MA at 54 hours. The mean is not as wet as the operational (looks like around .10")...but I mean hey, I'll take a half an inch in this pattern. Regardless..I found it pretty funny that many in this thread have been dying to see a flake...and completely missed the Euro showing a light snowfall less than 3 days away. Awesome, any snow at this point is a blessing compared to our crappy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The UKMET has been saying this for a couple of days and when it is further northwest three days out, it is an absolute red flag, but, Don't we want to go for the record for latest first snowfall in meteorological winter? When the Euro and UK are together, it's something to watch. Although it would only be a light event. Which I would accept, at this point. 6z UKMET below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 6z GFS exceptionally cold after Day 5 or so...possible turning point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The UK/EC don't necessarily have the surface low much more north, they have precip more north though. Its possible they are grasping the overrunning a bit better than the other models and that could be why they show the northern extension to the snow shield. The GFS continues to be worrisome since its dead set on that AK vortex coming back Days 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 think the 144-180 period really needs to be watched. There is a lot of activity on the ensembles with something sitting over the deep south but going S and E and i dont buy any suppressed solutions right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The euro ensembles like the 60 hour event like the OP. That means something, especially this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 While not enough, the nam did just pop pretty north for the Monday night euro/ukie event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 While not enough, the nam did just pop pretty north for the Monday night euro/ukie event. isnt the nam model usually more amplified than them? except for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 You can add the jma to the euro/ukie camp for Monday night's 1"-2" snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 isnt the nam model usually more amplified than them? except for the euro? I've noticed that since the nam got an upgrade, it doesn't have it crazy amped solutions anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I've noticed that since the nam got an upgrade, it doesn't have it crazy amped solutions anymore. ok wasnt aware of that becuase i distinctly remember it having that wrapped up/amped solution alot of times. the monday night event should not be ignored though. it certainly doesnt have the ability to be big but it could drop a couple inches somewhere if it gets close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The 4km NAM is hinting at a passing snow shower as the shortwave swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 holy block just east of greenland at the end of the gfs, lets hope that bad boy is for real and pushes a few ticks more west so its over greenland, and not to the east of it ala end of january 2010 beginning of feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 GEFS has some light precip up to CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 12z GGEM also brushes the area with light precip. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 6z GFS exceptionally cold after Day 5 or so...possible turning point? mt holly seems to disagree nws sees warmer than normal temps through jan 23 "US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly It appears as though the warmer than normal temperatures will continue into the third week of January. While we may see temperatures closer to normal next weekend, indications are that milder temperatures will return thereafter. Below is an image of the forecast probability of above, near and below normal temperatures for the period January 16th through January 23rd. The forecast probability is a product of the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), which contains ensemble members from American and Canadian models. The image shows a 60 to 80 percent chance of temperatures being above normal for the 16th through the 23rd." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 i guess the people at pen-state have a lot on their minds these days other than weather because e-wall is an absolute fail right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 gefs love 282 hours for a miller B, strong signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 GGEM from ewall. Hey it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 mt holly seems to disagree nws sees warmer than normal temps through jan 23 "US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly It appears as though the warmer than normal temperatures will continue into the third week of January. While we may see temperatures closer to normal next weekend, indications are that milder temperatures will return thereafter. Below is an image of the forecast probability of above, near and below normal temperatures for the period January 16th through January 23rd. The forecast probability is a product of the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), which contains ensemble members from American and Canadian models. The image shows a 60 to 80 percent chance of temperatures being above normal for the 16th through the 23rd." And the silence is deafening. The snow / cold / pattern change wishcasters will only quote and cling to whatever and whoever says what they want and hope to see. Reality and facts be damned! They'd have a good career working for the state run press in the old Soviet Union. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Enough with the f*cking hyperbole and thinly veiled attacks! Grow the f*ck up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 mt holly seems to disagree nws sees warmer than normal temps through jan 23 "US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly It appears as though the warmer than normal temperatures will continue into the third week of January. While we may see temperatures closer to normal next weekend, indications are that milder temperatures will return thereafter. Below is an image of the forecast probability of above, near and below normal temperatures for the period January 16th through January 23rd. The forecast probability is a product of the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), which contains ensemble members from American and Canadian models. The image shows a 60 to 80 percent chance of temperatures being above normal for the 16th through the 23rd." Does anyone know the typical accuracy of this, because this could be a major problem to the alleged pattern change that is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Pattern change != endless cold and snow, this strawman has to stop. There IS a pattern change. Anyone who believed it would be endless snow and cold is a weenie, and anyone here pretending that those people know what they are talking about, or that EVERYONE was calling for that, is being incredibly disingenuous at best, and flat out lying to fit their arguments at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 GGEM from ewall. Hey it's something. Interesting... CMC and the ECM show it, GFS/NAM still have nothing, and the 12z UKMET backs away a bit according to this source, which is the only one I saw was updated so far. I would rather go with the less snowy solutions on this, although at this rate, some snow showers could perhaps be possible in some areas on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 do we have a link to the quote from Mt. Holly? i don't think they have a FB page (just checked) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Does anyone know the typical accuracy of this, because this could be a major problem to the alleged pattern change that is coming. I don't know much about the NAEFS maps prior to this fall, although they have consistently shown above average temperatures for the region throughout December, which as we know by now turned out to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 do we have a link to the quote from Mt. Holly? i don't think they have a FB page (just checked) Check again. Go the the Mount Holly (Philly) NWS home page. The FB link is on the upper left side just above Current Hazards (says find us on Facebook). Once you click on it, that quote is shown right from the start. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Interesting... CMC and the ECM show it, GFS/NAM still have nothing, and the 12z UKMET backs away a bit according to this source, which is the only one I saw was updated so far. I would rather go with the less snowy solutions on this, although at this rate, some snow showers could perhaps be possible in some areas on Monday night. JMA and Euro still has light precip up this way. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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