atownwxwatcher Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 If you are looking for cold the 12 Z ECM offers this from 144 hours thru 240 hours...However..its mostly dry as well across the region.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Today blows away the "cold" days we had earlier this week in the anomaly department. Seems so much easier to go +20 on warm days in the winter than go -20 on real cold days. And i gotta say if its not gonna be cold and snow let it be like this. 60 degrees with light wind FTW!!!! Cant stand 5 degrees and sunny its a waste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 seems like the warmth was under-forecast today--SE ridge strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We didn't make it to he extreme of 2007, but the date is really close. http://www.nytimes.c...ion/07heat.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 The Euro looked nice to me...not sure why nobody was really talking about it. Light snow scrapes our area at 66 hours. Then a heavy rainstorm next week...but light snow again at 144 as a secondary low develops. New England actually gets hit pretty hard as that low develops. Then, more light snow post 200 hours with a late-blooming Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The Euro looked nice to me...not sure why nobody was really talking about it. Light snow scrapes our are at 66 hours. Then a heavy rainstorm next week...but light snow again at 144 as a secondary low develops. New England actually gets hit pretty hard as that low develops. Then, more light snow post 200 hours with a late-blooming Miller B. I'm only interested in the first one. Any chance that can come a little closer? Maybe we can see the Watchung mountains snowcovered once again real soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Our area could be under the influence of extensions of the Polar Vortex if the GEFS verify. That is a highly anomalous ridge from the Aleutians towards the Pole. If the North Atlantic ridge strengthens things could get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 My backyard station is reporting 67.7 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The Euro looked nice to me...not sure why nobody was really talking about it. Light snow scrapes our area at 66 hours. Then a heavy rainstorm next week...but light snow again at 144 as a secondary low develops. New England actually gets hit pretty hard as that low develops. Then, more light snow post 200 hours with a late-blooming Miller B. HM has some good stuff in the MA forum about the Euro and 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 This needs some work, but at least we've got a semi 50-50 in place with cold available....we'll see what the Euro thinks later...could be interesting... I dont think there's much to this potential. The problem is that the ridge out west is pressing east very rapidly. We have seen this before in the last few weeks. You can see a few frames later that the ridge collapses so fast, that it flattens the shortwave completely. So there's very little chance that this becomes anything interesting, if you ask me. http://www.meteo.psu...VN_12z/f180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 MADIS 20Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I dont think there's much to this potential. The problem is that the ridge out west is pressing east very rapidly. We have seen this before in the last few weeks. You can see a few frames later that the ridge collapses so fast, that it flattens the shortwave completely. So there's very little chance that this becomes anything interesting, if you ask me. http://www.meteo.psu...VN_12z/f180.gif Yeah most likely just a flash in the pan, as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The Euro ensembles have been doing a good job at moderating the cold shot that the OP was showing at the end of it's range for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-072100- NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK MOSUNNY 62 36 37 W10G22 29.76R LAGUARDIA APRT MOSUNNY 62 33 33 W13G23 29.73R KENNEDY INTL MOSUNNY 59 35 40 SW14 29.75R NEWARK/LIBERTY MOSUNNY 64 34 32 W18G28 29.74R TETERBORO PTSUNNY 61 34 36 W12G24 29.72R WHITE PLAINS MOSUNNY 60 34 37 W12G20 29.71R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 blah -10 to -15 850s is average cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Today's 11-15 day mean 500mb height anomalies on the 12z Euro ensembles are moderately exciting, especially compared to the 00z and runs of the past several days. Today's run has positive height anomalies building from the North Atlantic through Greenland and the Davis Straight. With the -PNA pattern likely in place, and the Aleutian ridge still there, the Southeast Ridge is suppressed by this additional high latitude ridging on the Atlantic side. I don't know how excited one can get about an 11-15 day forecast, but these certainly don't look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Today's 11-15 day mean 500mb height anomalies on the 12z Euro ensembles are moderately exciting, especially compared to the 00z and runs of the past several days. Today's run has positive height anomalies building from the North Atlantic through Greenland and the Davis Straight. With the -PNA pattern likely in place, and the Aleutian ridge still there, the Southeast Ridge is suppressed by this additional high latitude ridging on the Atlantic side. I don't know how excited one can get about an 11-15 day forecast, but these certainly don't look bad. Here is the pic. Really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Here is the pic. Really nice. That's only to 240 hours. The Euro ensembles past that...through 300+hrs... develop the blocking over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 That's only to 240 hours. The Euro ensembles past that...through 300+hrs... develop the blocking over Greenland. Where do you get it past 300? Paid site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Where do you get it past 300? Paid site? Yes. They run through Day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Gfs went towards the euro and popped the day 2 disturbance north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Gfs went towards the euro and popped the day 2 disturbance north this run. Being 48 hours out and with this pattern, we would normally be in good shape and our area would be in the bullseye with the north trend, as we approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS still signaling something around the 15th. H5 needs work but its holding onto the idea of ejecting the cutoff low out of the SW, while the euro held it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 finally seeing some blocking get west based at the end of the 18z gfs. Can we make up for lost time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yes. They run through Day 15. Which website(s) do you know that provide them through Day 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Which website(s) do you know that provide them through Day 15? Stormvista premium membership. Very expensive to get those maps. I believe over $100 a month. The regular euro runs are $30 a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The Euro ensembles have been doing a good job at moderating the cold shot that the OP was showing at the end of it's range for this week. Ensemble means are never the outliers so of course they moderate a trend of 1 solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Just before the October 29, 2011 snowstorm hit, I remember you randomly say, "Watch NYC record 2.9" for this storm and record only a trace for the rest of the winter which would end up being the second-least snowiest winter ever." I think that was a very ballsy but reasonable "prediction" from you judging from our status at the current moment; however, I actually thought you were joking in October with that "prediction." Furthermore, I actually think that your October "prediction" is a bit more viable to happen than your current and real forecast of 15-17 inches. I hope I am wrong though for my inner snow weenie and the rest of the posters on this board. Let me ask you, though: Were you really joking or was it an educated guess? I recall that you posted in September in which you did not like the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic that would serve as a detriment to a -NAO developing in the winter. I definitely remember saying that one, and I was joking even though I had already forecast a pretty putrid winter about 3 weeks earlier. The SST anomalies was the reason I didn't like the NAO but now I'm not totally sure if its the SSTs or the cold stratosphere also having impacts on the NAO. I also said in early December I thought most of the 90 days 12/1-3/1 would be spent with a +NAO and that the AO would eventually go negative, I'm thinking now the NAO has a chance to go negative even though the first 37 days or so of that 90 have been positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Holy crap you guys are slacking...the Euro has snow at 54 hours for the entire area. Not much of it..but it's something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Holy crap you guys are slacking...the Euro has snow at 54 hours for the entire area. Not much of it..but it's something.. I think this is one of the Euro inside 72 hour blunders, there is virtually no support from any other models for that event anymore. The Euro as good as it is has never been one of my favorite models inside 72 hours, especially when the NAM/GFS both agree on something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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