bluewave Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 If we get the 99-00 totals it will feel like Valdez, Alaska around here. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Temperatures soaring after being relatively stable only 45 minutes ago in the mid to upper 30s. Now temperatures are 49F and quickly rising, 60F certainly seems within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Temperatures soaring after being relatively stable only 45 minutes ago in the mid to upper 30s. Now temperatures are 49F and quickly rising, 60F certainly seems within reach. Yeah, those were in the spots which were able to radiate this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I just hope having spring conditions now won't actually screw Spring later, nothing worse than chilly, raw and wet conditions in April/May. Someone did a composite of the likely matchups for next spring and summer and most averaged rather cool for the area. The assumption was a 3rd year Nina which gave the summers of 1956, 1975, and 2000. If you assume the possibility of going into an El Nino or neutral you can add 1968, 1986, and 1990 in there too. I didn't include 1972, 1997, or 2009 because those were transitioning quite sharply by early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 This is insane, mid to upper 50s in the forecast for today, after next week's cutter, we only get down to seasonable levels and then most likely torch again. I don't want to throw in the towel but I'm very close to doing it. I can't believe I haven't seen a flake since October, just unbelievable. There will be people in shorts today, I guarantee it. I would'nt worry about long range forecasts it seems to be going back and forth. I think around the 15th to 20th we have a good chance of getting snow. Too many people are model hugging around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Love how we have literally the exact same ugly cutoff again for next weekend with it coming up as the cold air retreats ever so perfectly. Where did that come from? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I would'nt worry about long range forecasts it seems to be going back and forth. I think around the 15th to 20th we have a good chance of getting snow. Too many people are model hugging around here. I am proud to say that I haven't looked up any model maps since before Christmas. I'd rather just read about the changes occurring in the upper atmosphere and what they mean to our sensible weather here on the ground. All evidence points to changes coming. I would say at this point any change is a good change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We're not getting to the 70+ degrees observed a day prior to this date 5 years ago, but considering that temperatures are already in the low-mid 50s at this time of the day and still rising steadily, temps might easily bust on the low side today... at this rate, someone in the area could reach 60 degrees this afternoon, even the MOS supports this: The 12z NAM shows mid 50s today, although it should be noted that it has trended warmer for today with each run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Hmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We're not getting to the 70+ degrees observed a day prior to this date 5 years ago, but considering that temperatures are already in the low-mid 50s at this time of the day and still rising steadily, temps might easily bust on the low side today... at this rate, someone in the area could reach 60 degrees this afternoon, even the MOS supports this: The 12z NAM shows mid 50s today, although it should be noted that it has trended warmer for today with each run: The models also ran too cool yesterday. You could see that yesterday's highs were going above guidance when the surface temps were too cool for the 850's that they were showing even the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Best looking map I've seen this winter....(h500) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Best looking map I've seen this winter.... Could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Doesn't look like it's gonna make the turn, but at least it looked interesting for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Doesn't look like it's gonna make the turn, but at least it looked interesting for a minute. Of course it doesn't lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The models also ran too cool yesterday. You could see that yesterday's highs were going above guidance when the surface temps were too cool for the 850's that they were showing even the day before. It's definitely not the first time it's happened this winter, where we saw the models too cold with surface temperatures even the day before, with the models adjusting warmer with each run on the warm day but still ending up too cold. I'm not sure what's causing this, but this trend seems to keep repeating itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Could be good. This needs some work, but at least we've got a semi 50-50 in place with cold available....we'll see what the Euro thinks later...could be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Torching today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It's definitely not the first time it's happened this winter, where we saw the models too cold with surface temperatures even the day before, with the models adjusting warmer with each run on the warm day but still ending up too cold. I'm not sure what's causing this, but this trend seems to keep repeating itself. Whenever we good CAA or WAA, the models often underestimate the temps, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Torching today. 20 degrees above average - just unbelievable for January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I just can't believe that when looking at the 12z GFS H5 -- we've got a closed low sitting right in the slot near the VA capes, which normally would be ideal for a snowstorm. Then of course the surface map has a 988 low over the benchmark -- good track, but no sub 0c 850s anywhere to be found. Talk about a kick to the groin right there. I've broken the shorts and t-shirt out again today, for what seems like the longest autumn I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Shortly after I made my post, Upton made an updated forecast, now showing 61 degrees in NYC: This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 61. West wind around 11 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Incredible bust. Temps already approaching 60 at noon Shortly after I made my post, Upton made an updated forecast, now showing 61 degrees in NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 59F on January 7th! This is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Records are in jeopardy today. ISP already broke their of 57, with 59 at noon. JFK tied at 56 at noon. BDR is getting close the record of 55, with 52 currently at noon. EWR,NYC,LGA records are between 62-64F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 59F on January 7th! This is awesome! How is this awesome? We live in the NYC area, its January 7, not April 27. We get up to 8 months of this type of weather year round, well more like 9 or 10 this year. If you want this constant warmth, then head south to Florida or California because I think this is ridiculous. Get ready for blossoming flowers soon at this rate. Global warming fanatics will probably reign once more after this record warm winter ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Gfs is a weenies dream. Cold and stormy in the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The low of 12 just a few mornings ago is feeling like a distant memory. What's amazing is that we have this warmth with a beautiful sunny day. Generally this time of year, it takes a strong mid latitude cyclone tracking to our west to bring these kind of temps here. We could get this warm but generally with squally weather. Pretty amazing stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 How is this awesome? We live in the NYC area, its January 7, not April 27. We get up to 8 months of this type of weather year round, well more like 9 or 10 this year. If you want this constant warmth, then head south to Florida or California because I think this is ridiculous. Get ready for blossoming flowers soon at this rate. Global warming fanatics will probably reign once more after this record warm winter ends. I'm ready for them. Temps near 60 feel great, so much better to be outside in and very enjoyable. If you want constant cold move to Wisconsin or Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The low of 12 just a few mornings ago is feeling like a distant memory. What's amazing is that we have this warmth with a beautiful sunny day. Generally this time of year, it takes a strong mid latitude cyclone tracking to our west to bring these kind of temps here. We could get this warm but generally with squally weather. Pretty amazing stuff I think we saw readings as high as the low 70s a few years back in mid January and it was a beautiful sunny day as well. Amazing that even with widespread upper 50s/low 60s, records go as high as the low 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 All I see is one potential event around the 21st and morning lows in the low 20s... Gfs is a weenies dream. Cold and stormy in the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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