Weathergun Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It's better that we don't have the deep AK vortex and +AO is weakening. But a strong Alleutian ridge, without a Greenland/Davis Straight block, is pretty much useless to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 On KOKX radar, you see something associated with radar and not January, anomalous propagation over the Atlantic Ocean associated with an nighttime inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It means nothing, but the long range of the 18z GFS is a massive torch with a very strong SE ridge and the PV over the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It's better that we don't have the deep AK vortex and +AO is weakening. But a strong Alleutian ridge, without a Greenland/Davis Straight block, is pretty much useless to us. agreed, because you get a -PNA which gives you the se ridge. We need good west based blocking. Don't see that on any models or ensembles right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 sorry is this sounds a bit amatuer, but what kind of implications would that have on the pattern then for us? What the GFS is indicative of is the downwelling of warming which we have been hearing about for a few weeks now. Those kind of anomalies haven't made it to 50 or 70 hpa yet..they have been farther up at 5/10 hpa. Such an event will likely cause a re-positioning or split/disintegration of the Polar Vortex. However, we are still left with questions regarding the North Atlantic pattern and potential for blocking. The death of the PV does not necessarily mean we will see a -NAO block develop. It certainly will put us in a more favorable spot, but the blocking remains uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 What the GFS is indicative of is the downwelling of warming which we have been hearing about for a few weeks now. Those kind of anomalies haven't made it to 50 or 70 hpa yet..they have been farther up at 5/10 hpa. Such an event will likely cause a re-positioning or split/disintegration of the Polar Vortex. However, we are still left with questions regarding the North Atlantic pattern and potential for blocking. The death of the PV does not necessarily mean we will see a -NAO block develop. It certainly will put us in a more favorable spot, but the blocking remains uncertain. There's clearly not much hope for our area to get much snowier conditions this winter, but if the warming does go along as expected and we do see the PV splitting and moving away from Greenland/Alaska, would there be a chance for something other than a gradient pattern setting up that still gives NYC its share of some cold and snow, or is a gradient-like pattern pretty much the main scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 A gradient pattern can provide wintry conditions for our area if we are on the cold side. The AO will most likely determine that. The NAO will also be the other factor. It seems that the pna will most likely be negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 A gradient pattern can provide wintry conditions for our area if we are on the cold side. The AO will most likely determine that. The NAO will also be the other factor. It seems that the pna will most likely be negative. When the pattern changes towards something more favorable, then we'll get our chances, but even then it's looking like the Northeast will be favored for the snow, as most gradient patterns typically do. We'll definitely get our share of snow, especially towards the end of the month, February and possibly March, although at this rate, it's going to take a huge change in the pattern to bring this winter's snow close to average, and at least in my opinion we could end up with something like 07-08 or 08-09 where we see some mixed events and some rain events while the Northeast gets the bigger snowstorms, as the pattern somewhat changes but fails to completely fall apart. March is something I'm thinking about; others with more knowledge on this than I have will probably have a better answer to this, but if the pattern does change later on in the winter, perhaps we could get to experience a colder pattern in March, potentially including snow, as we had with 06-07 for example when winter was also delayed. It's been a few years since our last actual cold/snowy March, and while I don't have much hope with the pattern we're in, perhaps we could get lucky and actually see some snow extend beyond February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 A gradient pattern can provide wintry conditions for our area if we are on the cold side. The AO will most likely determine that. The NAO will also be the other factor. It seems that the pna will most likely be negative. The problem is the damn NAO being positive and the La Nina influence, without the Nina I'd be very gung ho about the next 3-4 weeks here but because we're in that La Nina I'm thinking the SE ridge is going to be a problem both with periodic warming and storms cutting inland. The other issue is that the ridge over AK is too far west on many of the GFS runs and its ensembles as well as the Euro. You really need it to be taking residence over over Yukon or NWTerr more to truly get the cold air into the US east of the Plains. This could very well turn out to be a February 1989ish type month where alot of the nation is below normal but the East never truly gets into the core of the cold for any sustained stretch. That month saw a -EPO overcome a raging +AO and relatively strong +NAO, the PNA was negative as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 To get to normal snowfall, which is now 25 inches, we would need a huge snowstorm just to get us close, or what we had the first week of February 1994. The chances of Central Park reaching normal snowfall this winter is at 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 To get to normal snowfall, which is now 25 inches, we would need a huge snowstorm just to get us close, or what we had the first week of February 1994. The chances of Central Park reaching normal snowfall this winter is at 5%. I'm not sure its THAT bad but you're probably close, maybe 10-12% or so, we'd need probably a monster event of 10-15 inches and 2 smaller ones or 3-4 events with 5-8 inches or so and that seems hard to me. My guess is Central Park ends of very close to my prediction in my winter forecast which was roughly 15-17 inches. I think we'll get a 6-10 inch event late this month and a 4-8 inch one some time in March and thats all, February IMO will be either snowless or very close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'm not sure its THAT bad but you're probably close, maybe 10-12% or so, we'd need probably a monster event of 10-15 inches and 2 smaller ones or 3-4 events with 5-8 inches or so and that seems hard to me. My guess is Central Park ends of very close to my prediction in my winter forecast which was roughly 15-17 inches. I think we'll get a 6-10 inch event late this month and a 4-8 inch one some time in March and thats all, February IMO will be either snowless or very close to it. Is there anything suggesting that March could be better than February? A lot of what I read seems to be contradicting, with some sources saying cold/snow in February, others saying a mild and snowless February; same goes for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Is there anything suggesting that March could be better than February? A lot of what I read seems to be contradicting, with some sources saying cold/snow in February, others saying a mild and snowless February; same goes for March. Some of the Nina February torches have gone somewhat colder with a snow event or two in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Some of the Nina February torches have gone somewhat colder with a snow event or two in March. Thanks. Although having just two decent snow events in the entire winter would typically be looked at as dissapointing, at this point that would be considered as a positive as the pattern would actually allow for some snow even if it's not significantly better... Hopefully the end of the month through March does end up producing something so that we don't go through March almost completely snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'm not sure its THAT bad but you're probably close, maybe 10-12% or so, we'd need probably a monster event of 10-15 inches and 2 smaller ones or 3-4 events with 5-8 inches or so and that seems hard to me. My guess is Central Park ends of very close to my prediction in my winter forecast which was roughly 15-17 inches. I think we'll get a 6-10 inch event late this month and a 4-8 inch one some time in March and thats all, February IMO will be either snowless or very close to it. Just before the October 29, 2011 snowstorm hit, I remember you randomly say, "Watch NYC record 2.9" for this storm and record only a trace for the rest of the winter which would end up being the second-least snowiest winter ever." I think that was a very ballsy but reasonable "prediction" from you judging from our status at the current moment; however, I actually thought you were joking in October with that "prediction." Furthermore, I actually think that your October "prediction" is a bit more viable to happen than your current and real forecast of 15-17 inches. I hope I am wrong though for my inner snow weenie and the rest of the posters on this board. Let me ask you, though: Were you really joking or was it an educated guess? I recall that you posted in September in which you did not like the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic that would serve as a detriment to a -NAO developing in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 One thing to look for is that for the last several runs, the ECMWF has indicated increased ridging over eastern Asia/Siberia toward Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 One thing to look for is that for the last several runs, the ECMWF has indicated increased ridging over eastern Asia/Siberia toward Day 10. Its got a nasty arctic air mass plunging into ND at 240 hours, 850s are -35C in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Its got a nasty arctic air mass plunging into ND at 240 hours, 850s are -35C in some spots. Isn't that block a little too far west for our liking? Monster btw, 576 dm thicknesses in the Aleutians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Not something you often see, an eleven degree difference between KEWR and KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Its got a nasty arctic air mass plunging into ND at 240 hours, 850s are -35C in some spots. Just like the 6z GFS. It shows really cold air after next week's storm. These models continue to flip flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 To get to normal snowfall, which is now 25 inches, we would need a huge snowstorm just to get us close, or what we had the first week of February 1994. The chances of Central Park reaching normal snowfall this winter is at 5%. That assertion borders on ridiculous and I have no idea how your percentage was derived; save for the # just popping into your head. As of today, 2.9" has fallen @ KNYC...or 3.5" below the normal year to date average of 6.4"....such a small amount can be made up / surpassed with just a minor event in the immediate future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Hugh temp. difference within "the city" this morning. 48 at central park at 7 am and 32 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 That assertion borders on ridiculous and I have no idea how your percentage was derived; save for the # just popping into your head. As of today, 2.9" has fallen @ KNYC...or 3.5" below the normal year to date average of 6.4"....such a small amount can be made up / surpassed with just a minor event in the immediate future. I think for the last 30 years when we reach Jan. 1 with just 3" or less there is only a 25% of making it to the normal of 28" at CPK. Prior to this and back to 1869 it seems the chances were greater, 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Just like the 6z GFS. It shows really cold air after next week's storm. These models continue to flip flop. 6z gfs is not really cold after next weeks storm...in fact we torch again by the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I think for the last 30 years when we reach Jan. 1 with just 3" or less there is only a 25% of making it to the normal of 28" at CPK. Prior to this and back to 1869 it seems the chances were greater, 40%. I think most people will be happy if we can at least bump up into double digits for the season. Here are the years since 1995 when NYC had a trace or less of snow in December like this year: 1996-1997...10.0 1997-1998....5.5 1999-2000...16.3 2001-2002....3.5 2006-2007...12.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I think most people will be happy if we can at least bump up into double digits for the season. Here are the years since 1995 when NYC had a trace or less of snow in December like this year: 1996-1997...10.0 1997-1998....5.5 1999-2000...16.3 2001-2002....3.5 2006-2007...12.4 If we get the 99-00 totals it will feel like Valdez, Alaska around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 This is insane, mid to upper 50s in the forecast for today, after next week's cutter, we only get down to seasonable levels and then most likely torch again. I don't want to throw in the towel but I'm very close to doing it. I can't believe I haven't seen a flake since October, just unbelievable. There will be people in shorts today, I guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 This is insane, mid to upper 50s in the forecast for today, after next week's cutter, we only get down to seasonable levels and then most likely torch again. I don't want to throw in the towel but I'm very close to doing it. I can't believe I haven't seen a flake since October, just unbelievable. There will be people in shorts today, I guarantee it. toss it in, it's easier-no pattern change or very little of one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 toss it in, it's easier-no pattern change or very little of one... I just hope having spring conditions now won't actually screw Spring later, nothing worse than chilly, raw and wet conditions in April/May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Seriously, there is a banter thread for the whining, use it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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