TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 -EPO, -PNA, pv sw of the davis strait, western atlantic ridge FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 last winter all those pieces were in the right place for 45 days, now they are just displaced one way or another. And the beautiful heights out in the atlantic are moving EAST, not west, which also sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Im starting to think february is going to be our month as far as a more favorable setup for snowstorms on the east coast. It just seems that as stated by thetrials all the pieces just cant come together at once to give us legitimate shot at a snow threat. Hopefully we can get the pattern to relax and slow down and get some cold air here so something can amplify and give us a storm. Its really depressing that we dont even have anything to track at all its just a boring winter season right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 last winter all those pieces were in the right place for 45 days, now they are just displaced one way or another. And the beautiful heights out in the atlantic are moving EAST, not west, which also sucks. That is really not a bad pattern as advertised, I would think that storm system driving into the Great Lakes is anomalous and likely making things seem worse than they are. The ridge over the Aleutians is beautiful -- you'd just want to see those heights over Greenland farther west. Otherwise, even without that, a much better pattern than the one we're sitting in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 That is really not a bad pattern as advertised, I would think that storm system driving into the Great Lakes is anomalous and likely making things seem worse than they are. The ridge over the Aleutians is beautiful -- you'd just want to see those heights over Greenland farther west. Otherwise, even without that, a much better pattern than the one we're sitting in right now. If you have a -PNA you get the SE ridge. The good heights east of greenland aren't really helping out with the SE ridge, and that's the problem. I am more concerned that if you loop the end of the run you see the same pattern of the the heights not working west into the strait and you have two pv's spinning around one another over central canada. I know it looks better because the one eyed monster over alaska is gone but the atlantic needs more help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 -EPO, -PNA, pv sw of the davis strait, western atlantic ridge FTL. That is NOT a bad looking map...however, its at day 10, AS USUAL this winter...it actually might be the best looking map we have seen since last january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Best D 8-10 day ECMWF I've seen so far this winter. Very nice high latitude blocking getting going by mid Jan. No low heights over Greenland at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Best D 8-10 day ECMWF I've seen so far this winter. Very nice high latitude blocking getting going by mid Jan. No low heights over Greenland at all. Kinda deceptive -- the heights may not be "anomalous" enough to show up in the -6 to -9dm 500hpa charts above, but there is definitely some entity of the PV still near Greenland or just south of it. Just something to keep in mind -- but I agree it looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Best D 8-10 day ECMWF I've seen so far this winter. Very nice high latitude blocking getting going by mid Jan. No low heights over Greenland at all. heavily skewed by the inland runner which pulls the higher heights into the davis strait temporarily. Problem is, said low decides to park itself in that same area at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 that map doesnt produce snow for anyone in the nyc metro , i promise you. that specific map wouldn't...but the general pattern depicted likely would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Kinda deceptive -- the heights may not be "anomalous" enough to show up in the -6 to -9dm 500hpa charts above, but there is definitely some entity of the PV still near Greenland or just south of it. Just something to keep in mind -- but I agree it looks good. heavily skewed by the inland runner which pulls the higher heights into the davis strait temporarily. Problem is, said low decides to park itself in that same area at the end of the run. I agree but to see a map with no semblance of low heights over the arctic is undoubtedly a massive, massive change from the regime of the past few months. No, it may not be perfect, but a significant improvement, yes. As far as the end of the run, I'm more concerned about the D 5-10 changes at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 that specific map wouldn't...but the general pattern depicted likely would. not so sure because it could be cold and dry after the plains system comes through and if the heights east of greenland don't bust west and we still have a -PNA, its wash rinse repeat. We are battling three fronts right now. 1) The alaskan vortex 2) The NAO 3) The PNA We have had a +PNA but have been struggling with the AK vortex and NAO. Now it looks like we lose the alaskan vortex but gain a -PNA and still dont see enough improvement in the atlantic to combat the SE Ridge. Tough tough setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The record I was referencing refers to the latest snowfall in the winter season, though, so I assume that's what they are speaking about...the latest NYC has seen it's first snow after meteorological winter began was January 10th. It was later than that in 2001-02, wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yes but with a - PNA the question becomes where and who would benefit? We don't know who's going to benefit from this . just yet .What we know is that the pattern coming up will be more favorable than the one that we are in. Gradient patterns usually favor either 40N or 41N. Hopefully a -nao develops . Usually when the AO goes negative, the NAO usually folllows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 not so sure because it could be cold and dry after the plains system comes through and if the heights east of greenland don't bust west and we still have a -PNA, its wash rinse repeat. We are battling three fronts right now. 1) The alaskan vortex 2) The NAO 3) The PNA We have had a +PNA but have been struggling with the AK vortex and NAO. Now it looks like we lose the alaskan vortex but gain a -PNA and still dont see enough improvement in the atlantic to combat the SE Ridge. Tough tough setup. weirdly enough...there hasn't been a stout SE ridge modeled in long range guidance. Cold and dry is on the table...but so is stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 As I stated in a previous post:'... This will be the latest into meteorological winter without snowfall in Central Park that [record] may last generations...'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 weirdly enough...there hasn't been a stout SE ridge modeled in long range guidance. Cold and dry is on the table...but so is stormy. +PNA has helped however its been strong enough to muck up a few ok setups, especially for the people up north, and on that map, its clearly evident. I see it trying to pop up again on the euro ensembles but looks like the pac takes care of it again. Euro ensembles look cold at the end of their run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 weirdly enough...there hasn't been a stout SE ridge modeled in long range guidance. Cold and dry is on the table...but so is stormy. I would think it could rear its ugly head if the -PNA came to fruition though. Especially with the lack of any real NAO blocking. That kind of set up usually places our area near a very sharp gradient which can be a real dividing line between wintry precipitation and cold rain. We really have to keep a close eye on the Atlantic the next week or two to see what the guidance hints at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I would think it could rear its ugly head if the -PNA came to fruition though. Especially with the lack of any real NAO blocking. That kind of set up usually places our area near a very sharp gradient which can be a real dividing line between wintry precipitation and cold rain. We really have to keep a close eye on the Atlantic the next week or two to see what the guidance hints at. Does the gradient (if it sets up like that) get affected more by the -PNA pushing up the SE ridge, or is the NAO more of a concern (if the PNA isnt TOO negative, I mean)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 i said that. Also show nice ridging into Greenland earlier then the operational run. Day 8: Day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Does the gradient (if it sets up like that) get affected more by the -PNA pushing up the SE ridge, or is the NAO more of a concern (if the PNA isnt TOO negative, I mean)? They work together, really, but I have always felt that in this area at least, the Atlantic and high latitude ridging has more implications on the pattern. The PNA can push the SE ridge , but the NAO being favorable means we will more than likely be on the better side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Also show nice ridging into Greenland earlier then the operational run. Day 8: Day 9 very much east based and you can see the PV hanging out in canada. At least its cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 very much east based and you can see the PV hanging out in canada. At least its cold. the board has skewed what an east-based NAO is. The real NAO is a difference between the surface pressures in Spain and Iceland. SIgnificant ridging over Greenland is actually west NAO...but it's not a Davis Strait block that everyone seems to want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 the board has skewed what an east-based NAO is. The real NAO is a difference between the surface pressures in Spain and Iceland. SIgnificant ridging over Greenland is actually west NAO...but it's not a Davis Strait block that everyone seems to want. You are technically correct, so its probably smarter to see west based vs east based ridging/blocking depending on what side of greeneland the biggest anomolies show up on. But techinical definitions aside the most siginificant positive heights anomolies are clearly still east of greenland on that map which will keep the trough oriented in a position that won't be good for siginificant east coast snow storm development. And there is a reason the davis strait block is so coveted, because it works. But its 10 days away so its going to change no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 That late week storm is clearly ruled out for snow here, but since we're not going to get that, at least there's other aspects of the storm to prevent it from being a boring rainstorm... especially if it phases like the more recent ECM/GFS runs showed, there could be some gusty winds with this, moderate-heavy rain to continue the trend of heavy rain events since August, along with a brief 50+ degree surge if it follows a more western/phased scenario like the ECM has. Still not very interesting but at least it's better than having nothing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 If that big Aleutian Ridge verifies around 10 days out, the SE Ridge would flex it's muscles day 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 If that big Aleutian Ridge verifies around 10 days out, the SE Ridge would flex it's muscles day 11-15. I think the PV would help to some extent, but that would be when the high latitude blocking becomes very important. Having a block to our north over Greenland and even towards the Davis Straight is incredibly helpful when you have a -PNA pattern in response to the Aleutian ridge like some of the models are advertising. What's being shown is definitely better than the pattern we are in now, but I think we will be near a big time gradient if we only get the moderate North-Atlantic ridge that the guidance is hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 The 18z GFS stratospheric maps from Storm Vista are indicative of +80 to +90 50hpa height departures directly over the Davis Straight at 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The 18z GFS stratospheric maps from Storm Vista are indicative of +80 to +90 50hpa height departures directly over the Davis Straight at 240 hours. sorry is this sounds a bit amatuer, but what kind of implications would that have on the pattern then for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think the PV would help to some extent, but that would be when the high latitude blocking becomes very important. Having a block to our north over Greenland and even towards the Davis Straight is incredibly helpful when you have a -PNA pattern in response to the Aleutian ridge like some of the models are advertising. What's being shown is definitely better than the pattern we are in now, but I think we will be near a big time gradient if we only get the moderate North-Atlantic ridge that the guidance is hinting at. The 18z GFS broke toward the Euro in a big way. This is about as big a run shift that you will see even for the OP at this range. I am not a big fan of -PNA patterns here if the models are correct. It will be interesting to see how things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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