CooL Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the s/w comes ashore the NW united states in only 3 days. The PNA ridge that the euro has would support this historic trough over the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 LOL, the surface low actually splits in two, one piece over NYS, one piece out to gulf of maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 How are we lookin out here in the far western burbs?? Wunderground maps are only up to hr156.. About the same as everybody else. As long as you aren't living on the immediate coast, this run pretty much places you on the good side of a very sharp dynamic cooling gradient. This holds until the surface low is tugged northwest as the ULL cuts off -- at that point the surface low rips into PA and everybody dryslots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 and the euro actually hints at taking the energy coming down the backside (the kicker i spoke of) and phasing it with the 500 low from the previous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the euro is obviously overdone... remember the solutions it had in this time frame for boxing day and the jan 26th storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 This is actually a pretty nice run (or very close to being a very nice run) for DC too. The surface low goes far enough north of them so that they don't torch when it comes inland over PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 About the same as everybody else. As long as you aren't living on the immediate coast, this run pretty much places you on the good side of a very sharp dynamic cooling gradient. This holds until the surface low is tugged northwest as the ULL cuts off -- at that point the surface low rips into PA and everybody dryslots. even the coast is fine until the precip almost shuts off again, at this time frame, its a big take it FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 the euro is obviously overdone... remember the solutions it had in this time frame for boxing day and the jan 26th storm? I remember it brought Boxing Day inland at one point -- and a few other times cut off the upper air trough over the Southern Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Unbelievable -- at 228 hours it phases our huge ULL with the PV and allows the ridging to slide east, so that the NAO remains positive and the PV remains over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Probably some convective feedback messing things up here too, similar to the boxing day progs at 4/5 days where upton noted the euro was suffering from convective feedback messing up its thermal profile Also as forky says Euro loves to over do things at this range, as noted by HPC this morning. Will be fun to follow this one for the next days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 if that ridge in canada happens, i'll start getting mildly interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 LOL at the wunderground snowfall map at 180 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I do believe the Euro is number 1 in verification for a reason, regardless of what HPC says. I also remember when they told us to throw out the GFS solution that showed the Boxing Day storm too. What was the verbiage they used? banter thread dude, not appropriate for this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 LOL at the wunderground snowfall map at 180 hrs. Here it is. Weenie run for sure. I would only look to see if the monster ridge is real first, before we worry about a storm. Give us the huge ridge, and then we shall see if a perfectly timed storm can form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 If the Euro is holding too much energy back to the SW, then everything past 120 hrs would look different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It looks like good sign in the long run but to get snow for sure we need an -NAO to take place to give even the coastal areas a good snowstorm. Even the clipper with cold enough air drawn in there is chance for the rain to change over to wet snow before ending and inland areas to have light to moderate accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 There is incredible thermal packing this run which leads to very dynamic snowfall just NW of the surface low before it tucks inland. Highly unlikely but very cool to look at nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 There is incredible thermal packing this run which leads to very dynamic snowfall just NW of the surface low before it tucks inland. Highly unlikely but very cool to look at nevertheless. This is one of the most unique setups I can remember. I'm having trouble even finding a comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 This is one of the most unique setups I can remember. I'm having trouble even finding a comparison. because it's model fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 If the Euro is holding too much energy back to the SW, then everything past 120 hrs would look different. If it trends back more consolidated with that trough axis. It's back with a warm solution, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 because it's model fantasy Yeah I'm sitting here trying to think if there has ever been a KU in that type of pattern...I do not think there has been...at least in the past 60 years. Probably at some point in history there was a crazy storm like shown. Most of the time it will usually go negative too early and torch us or the vortmax doesn't quite phase and you end up with a sheared out anafrontal wave. It has to be perfect. The huge ridge gives it a chance, but even with it, still a lot of luck involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 fantasies etc aside, if you are looking for a setup at 500mb, it matches pretty well to March 93. NAO was positive for that storm. Not by any means predicting this, but the result would likely be the same heavy snow to rain to dry slot for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I know its the JMA, but it too is on board with the monster ridge. It also has a surface low developing off the Carolina coast. Pretty similar to the euro... Day 6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah I'm sitting here trying to think if there has ever been a KU in that type of pattern...I do not think there has been...at least in the past 60 years. Probably at some point in history there was a crazy storm like shown. Most of the time it will usually go negative too early and torch us or the vortmax doesn't quite phase and you end up with a sheared out anafrontal wave. It has to be perfect. The huge ridge gives it a chance, but even with it, still a lot of luck involved. given the setup, i expected the euro to show the low occluding and moving over LI/extreme SE SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah I'm sitting here trying to think if there has ever been a KU in that type of pattern...I do not think there has been...at least in the past 60 years. Probably at some point in history there was a crazy storm like shown. Most of the time it will usually go negative too early and torch us or the vortmax doesn't quite phase and you end up with a sheared out anafrontal wave. It has to be perfect. The huge ridge gives it a chance, but even with it, still a lot of luck involved. I started paying attention when I saw the ridge axis which you mentioned. Any time you have 576dm heights into British Columbia, it is definitely worth giving the pattern a look. But I def. agree that everything has to go perfectly to get snow to the coast in this setup -- or at least a significant amount of it. I think there is a small bit of wiggle room in regards to seeing some snow out of this system. If you want something noteable, though, everything has to go exactly right as far as timing with the shortwave and surface low development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 If it trends back more consolidated with that trough axis. It's back with a warm solution, most likely. Yeah, the trough evolution would look more like 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I started paying attention when I saw the ridge axis which you mentioned. Any time you have 576dm heights into British Columbia, it is definitely worth giving the pattern a look. But I def. agree that everything has to go perfectly to get snow to the coast in this setup -- or at least a significant amount of it. I think there is a small bit of wiggle room in regards to seeing some snow out of this system. If you want something noteable, though, everything has to go exactly right as far as timing with the shortwave and surface low development. you can easily see something totally miss too if the ridge alignes more SW to NE that North to South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah, the trough evolution would look more like 0z. High degree of variance for sure -- but the signal for a significant system is definitely there. We'll see how this develops on the guidance over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The JMA keeps the low well offshore but does manage to brush the coastal sections with .25 inches of precip, probably snow at it gets very cold between 144 hrs and 168 hrs with -10 by 168 hrs. It has a storm well offshore with deep moisture, but as I said WAY offshore. Just really looking at the ridge. Its there on the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro/GFS comparison. Crazy differences: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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