tornadojay Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 not bad... it's saturated through the snow growth region and it appears there is a small amount of ascent down to the 600 mb level, where temps are close to -15 or so... borderlineish... it looks like the strongest ascent is a little bit higher at about the 500-550 mb level. The lowest levels dry out just a tad, but not like some of the virga events in the last few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 well, so much for that 6Z snow threat on the 12Z GFS.. dissapeared.. that shortwave pretty much just sheared out and died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 12z GFS took away the one run snow that 6z GFS had for Monday. How fitting for this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 well, so much for that 6Z snow threat on the 12Z GFS.. dissapeared.. that shortwave pretty much just sheared out and died. Its pretty funny. Every single shortwave so far this year has amplified and moved way north of where modeled, 3-4 days before. And this one will not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Its pretty funny. Every single shortwave so far this year has amplified and moved way north of where modeled, 3-4 days before. And this one will not. I know.. amazing, isn't it.. at this time last year, we could do no wrong.. this year, we can do no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I know.. amazing, isn't it.. at this time last year, we could do no wrong.. this year, we can do no good. watch it comes back north at the end but will be too warm, lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 how's the rest of the run- is it still cold from day 7 on - or whatever the 06z said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 which is why I would be very hesistant about forecasting any snow this year no matter how good the setup is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 watch it comes back north at the end but will be too warm, lolz 12z ukie is way south. Gets no precip past North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The GFS has a tendecy to over amplify these weak waves.. and it had no support from ensembles. No surprise about this particular storm. Its pretty funny. Every single shortwave so far this year has amplified and moved way north of where modeled, 3-4 days before. And this one will not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 GFS is a joke as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 GFS is a joke as usual It was only 1 run, 6z, and it was light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 how's the rest of the run- is it still cold from day 7 on - or whatever the 06z said? it is still cold..it has a longwave ridge-west, trough east pattern... very long wavelength though... the set-up does look somewhat interesting.. if we can sharpen the wavelength a bit, it would be pretty good actually, because the troughiness doesn't move out so quick this time around... we'd need a massive piece of energy to dive south on that thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 12z GFS looks interesting. After the cutter clears out a cold air mass arrives in its wake. Nice strong ridge out west and lots of energy diving down the backside of the trough. If the shortwave could dive far enough south and amplify the trough would have some time to go negative and maybe pop something of interest for next weekend. The progressiveness is definitely slowed down and the overall H5 depiction is more favorable. Plenty of cold air. At least worth keeping an eye on. At the very minimum the pattern appears to be looking better after the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 PV looks like it's in an unfavorable position.. seems like it would need to move further south west.. no way anything can go negatively tilted and close off with that quick flow up the atlantic coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 PV looks like it's in an unfavorable position.. seems like it would need to move further south west.. no way anything can go negatively tilted and close off with that quick flow up the atlantic coast Very much in agreement with your thoughts. It will be interesting though, something might pop down the road this run, especially if the PV is displaced a bit S and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 PV looks like it's in an unfavorable position.. seems like it would need to move further south west.. no way anything can go negatively tilted and close off with that quick flow up the atlantic coast But can still support light snow events. Let's just hope the models have a clue because days 6-15+ look very cold for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Need to get that PV out of Alaska for any long lasting change in the pattern..day 8 and 9 still has a massive vortex over Alaska with a postive NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Need to get that PV out of Alaska for any long lasting change in the pattern..day 8 and 9 still has a massive vortex over Alaska with a postive NAO it's the same old song...made it to #5 in 1965... http://musicradio77.com/Surveys/1965/surveyaug2465.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 it's the same old song...made it to #5 in 1965... http://musicradio77....veyaug2465.html I play it almost every day.great survey huh?..from the summer of drought lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 12z GFS looks interesting. After the cutter clears out a cold air mass arrives in its wake. Nice strong ridge out west and lots of energy diving down the backside of the trough. If the shortwave could dive far enough south and amplify the trough would have some time to go negative and maybe pop something of interest for next weekend. The progressiveness is definitely slowed down and the overall H5 depiction is more favorable. Plenty of cold air. At least worth keeping an eye on. At the very minimum the pattern appears to be looking better after the first storm. PV looks like it's in an unfavorable position.. seems like it would need to move further south west.. no way anything can go negatively tilted and close off with that quick flow up the atlantic coast The earlier that cutter phases, the more the PV and baroclinic zone will setup further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Heights really start to rise over Greenland and the pole after the big cutter....I think we finally see some change during that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Heights really start to rise over Greenland and the pole after the big cutter....I think we finally see some change during that timeframe they rise because of the cutter over greenland, the pole warming has been going on for a little bit. Problem is, vortex comes back stronger than ever at the end of the gfs and its ensembles but we seem to stay cold because we are ok over the pac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 That system around the 20th-21st looks a bit like President's Day 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 they rise because of the cutter over greenland, the pole warming has been going on for a little bit. Problem is, vortex comes back stronger than ever at the end of the gfs and its ensembles but we seem to stay cold because we are ok over the pac I think the encouraging signs day 5-10 are more important than the return to usual that the gfs shows. If the changes in the more immediate future are true, that bodes well for the long range. We have seen several times this winter the models hint at large improvements post day ten, but never come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Has anyone seen the latest ECM weeklies? Was wondering if anyone can confirm this? This is Brett Andersons interpretation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Lundberg has a nice writeup over there today too-granted he has a warm bias, but he outlines why he doesnt think there's a big pattern change coming...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Euro went way west with the storm next week...now has the surface low over Northeast PA at 150 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 If we still have a massive vortex in Alaska, and/or a vortex over Greenland/Baffin Bay, we won't have any significant snow events, maybe even snow at all besides very minor events. It's almost a guarantee. If we see models try to develop any kind of a snowstorm or winter wx event with those in place, it should go right in the trash. I have some hope for later this month regarding the stratospheric warming event, but until some reflection appears on the 500mb chart and the vortexes near the pole and Greenland dislodge, it's hard to really have any faith in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Several of the gefs members like the idea of a coastal low, after the big cutoff, next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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