atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 How this one got overlooked by the weenies I don't know but tonight's CMC is darn close at 108 hours, and does have a precip event for C-S NJ, likely snow just from scanning it quickly. With thicknesses of 552-558? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 With thicknesses of 552-558? Thicknesses are below 540dm at 102 hours on the CMC when it is at least close to snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The CMC solution is supported by exactly 1 GFS ensemble member, another sort of seems to be headed in that direction at 120 hours but seems very out to lunch, this is probably a 5-10%er right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thicknesses are below 540dm at 102 hours on the CMC when it is at least close to snowing. 546-552 depending where in that area you are.. I just find those thicknesses a bit high for snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The 00Z GFS sounding for ACY at 108 hours is -4C at 850 and 2C at the surface with plenty of room for evaporational cooling, but the winds are W-NW and not E-NE since the GFS does not have the surface low as the CMC does, so one can assume this would be an inland snow event or only one for NYC/LI if it came far enough north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 546-552 depending where in that area you are.. I just find those thicknesses a bit high for snowfall You are looking at the 500hpa heights (red contours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 You are looking at the 500hpa heights (red contours). I realize that but I think ideally you would want all levels to be below 540 would you not? With this pattern probably ideally lower then that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The Canadian also draws in the cold air at the 850 level for the big storm (though not enough and the 540 line is still way west) - first time I've seen this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Euro says precip doesnt get north of Lewes DE for that weenie storm. This is followed by a rain and wind storm, not even remotely close to snow for anyone, even buffalo. After that, a 500mb bowling ball goes through Chicago, weak low OTS Then a nice looking trough that can't amplify due to the previous system flattening everything. Weak low OTS Wow, we really can't buy a flake right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Euro says precip doesnt get north of Lewes DE for that weenie storm. This is followed by a rain and wind storm, not even remotely close to snow for anyone, even buffalo. After that, a 500mb bowling ball goes through Chicago, weak low OTS Then a nice looking trough that can't amplify due to the previous system flattening everything. Weak low OTS Wow, we really can't buy a flake right now A trough could still amplify, but perhaps beyond the 10 days since we have that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Interesting looking at KOKX radar returns off the southern NJ coast looking like a series of MCS's. But looking at TDWR TPHL shows light precip. returns off the southern NJ coast. It is all about the height of the radar beam and the KOKX radar beam intersecting the melting layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Interesting looking at KOKX radar returns off the southern NJ coast looking like a series of MCS's. But looking at TDWR TPHL shows light precip. returns off the southern NJ coast. It is all about the height of the radar beam and the KOKX radar beam intersecting the melting layer. It gets even stranger! Currently it looks like a thunderstorm complex moving off the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 what is that??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 If you look at TDWR TPHL, as the line moves further away from the N.J. coast, the reflectivities increase in magnitude because the beam height increases and intersects the melting layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 06Z GFS moves towards the CMC, gives the snow weenies a prayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 06Z GFS moves towards the CMC, gives the snow weenies a prayer. Just noticed that...looked cold enough aloft...haven't checked surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just noticed that...looked cold enough aloft...haven't checked surface... JFK is 32/23 at 15Z on the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 JFK is 32/23 at 15Z on the 9th. The GFS can't forecast 2m temps for sh*t...but given the time of year...and general look of the surface chart...should be cold enough... GFS only spitting out 0.1 - 0.25 liquid...so no huge deal...last night's RGEM seemed to bring some periods of moderate snow to the Island Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 6z gfs also features a cold and snowy long range. From day 7-15 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 That little wave just won't quit. Can we sneak one in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 That little wave just won't quit. Can we sneak one in here? DGEX has had it for multiple runs. But now lost it at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 6z gfs also features a cold and snowy long range. From day 7-15 and beyond. I think many here would sell our souls for this. After 300hrs, the 6z GFS has a Greenland block, elongated vortex over SE Canada, and amplified West Coast Ridge. Of course, the next run will probably be entirely different: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Would like to see those higher heigthts work back towards the strait but its a nice start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Is it perfect? No. Is it beautiful comparitively? Yes. The 6z GFS is about as nice of a looking run as I have seen in a while. If it were to occur like that verbatim...game on from mid month and forward. That setup in my opinion would produce a major snowstorm. Is it correct? In this winter I am not buying anything unless we get within 5-8 days and all models seem to at least point in that direction. I would do just about anything to get the 6z GFS to verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 546-552 depending where in that area you are.. I just find those thicknesses a bit high for snowfall Geopotential heights are a geometrical calculation of vertical height. That is not to be confused with geopotential thickness, which is the difference between the heights at two pressure levels. The magic number of 540dm refers to 1000-500mb thicknesses, not to 500mb geopotential height. However, heights are often near or below 540mb during snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 NAM wants no part of the Monday snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Is it perfect? No. Is it beautiful comparitively? Yes. The 6z GFS is about as nice of a looking run as I have seen in a while. If it were to occur like that verbatim...game on from mid month and forward. That setup in my opinion would produce a major snowstorm. Is it correct? In this winter I am not buying anything unless we get within 5-8 days and all models seem to at least point in that direction. I would do just about anything to get the 6z GFS to verify! I agree. Most of the 6z GFS ensembles don't support the Greenland block either, at this range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 If those fantasy range 850 temps on the 6Z GFS really are coming, then I'm moving south for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 that really is more of an extended icelandic bock than a true greenland block. Will it help? probably, but we can still get inland runners and warm storms in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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