TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 + NAO from hell continues on the euro and looks to go +++++++++++++++++++++ at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 wow- there is just no hope.... so depressing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 + NAO from hell continues on the euro and looks to go +++++++++++++++++++++ at the end of the run. it's pretty ugly.. wonder if the ensembles will show a similar picture.. what site do they post up euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nothing too exciting on todays Euro. You can see the gradient pattern developing towards the end of the run, but then it splits a cutoff low off the West coast and the vortex near Baffin Island becomes re-established. This is the first run I have seen like this, so hopefully it doesn't become a trend. Last nights data was very encouraging with the looks of a second warming event by Day 10 which could bring this to SSW status. We will have to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nothing too exciting on todays Euro. You can see the gradient pattern developing towards the end of the run, but then it splits a cutoff low off the West coast and the vortex near Baffin Island becomes re-established. This is the first run I have seen like this, so hopefully it doesn't become a trend. Last nights data was very encouraging with the looks of a second warming event by Day 10 which could bring this to SSW status. We will have to see how this plays out. Just make it stop John, we beg of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 i'll continue to use my forecast philosphy that i use in the spring during those times where we sit in a fog bank for a week straight...... forecast persistance until the pattern actually breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Just make it stop John, we beg of you. wasn't it the euro anomolies that were looking pretty promising yesterday.. I thought the euro was headed in the right direction.. what a bummer.. hope it's a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 We were really lucky to see the snow at the end of October with such a brief opening of the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The so called king of models is flip flopping again, what's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The so called king of models is flip flopping again, what's new. Don't know about others, but I think that king's been de-throned for a few years now. It seemed to be much more accurate back in the 2002-2007 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Forget about 10+ days out... What about in the 3-6 day range- which model is king?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 temps in the midwest today pretty much sum up these last few months... what a torch there today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Don't know about others, but I think that king's been de-throned for a few years now. It seemed to be much more accurate back in the 2002-2007 days. I agree, just some will still swear by it. I believe they upgraded it in recent years and now we have this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Don't know about others, but I think that king's been de-throned for a few years now. It seemed to be much more accurate back in the 2002-2007 days. I think that's just because in 2002-2007, the other models were so terrible. Euro still verifies as the best model out there, time and time again. But it has definetely struggled this year in the day 5-10 timeframe and for east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Don't know about others, but I think that king's been de-throned for a few years now. It seemed to be much more accurate back in the 2002-2007 days. regardless of which model says what, obviously all the flip flopping shows that there is no overwhelming evidence to suggest that a pattern change is imminent. Until there is a very good consensus among a number of different models and consistantly through several days of running, then I really can't believe any particular solution. This last cold shot was an example of something that we were pretty confident would happen. The models were advertising it for many days in a row and most of the major models showed it happening. It's like a tease cuz you see one good run and hope it's the start of a trend, but it's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I agree, just some will still swear by it. I believe they upgraded it in recent years and now we have this. That's why you have to use the ensemble means for forecasting the 6-10 day range. Today's OP run is roughly similar to the ensemble mean from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Today's Euro ensembles are nice..looks like the PV retrogrades into a much more favorable position by Day 10. From what I can see there is even some ridging building into Greenland, working in tandem with a favorable pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Today's Euro ensembles are nice..looks like the PC retrogrades into a much more favorable position by Day 10. From what I can see there is even some ridging building into Greenland, working in tandem with a favorable pacific. Looking at it now, IMHO, atlantic side is MUCH improved, not so sure how great the pac is, but it's not terrible. pac looks better earlier in the run and atlantic looks better at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nice signal towards the end of the 18z GEFS as well. Ridging nosing into Greenland and the Davis Straight, a ridge on the west coast of the US, and the greatest negative height anomalies in association with the PV centered over Central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That's why you have to use the ensemble means for forecasting the 6-10 day range. Today's OP run is roughly similar to the ensemble mean from yesterday. Exactly. Please don't treat the op runs with significance beyond day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The ensembles have been quite consistent with the AK ridge, but at the same time the setup the ensembles have there, particularly the Euro's AK ridging setup is dangerously close to being a very easily dislodged ridge, you can still see that AK vortex desperately trying to come back near Day 10 on the Euro ensembles and the last few GFS runs try and bring it back after Day 10-12 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 next frame on the 00z nam is likely snow, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 next frame on the 00z nam is likely snow, fwiw Thats a big if, the flow is easterly there which may mean the BL is too warm. Also, don't forget that the NAM tends to be overly NW and amplified at the end of its runs 9 out of 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thats a big if, the flow is easterly there which may mean the BL is too warm. Also, don't forget that the NAM tends to be overly NW and amplified at the end of its runs 9 out of 10 times. Just agree with me, make the weenies happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just agree with me, make the weenies happy. What's amazing about this winter is we've had very few threats in the D 5+ fantasy range to even talk about as being snow. I can't remember any times someone posted a model run showing a significant snow in the medium range. I guess the bright side to that is there's been no teasers, since the pattern's sucked too bad for even fantasy snows to appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What's amazing about this winter is we've had very few threats in the D 5+ fantasy range to even talk about as being snow. I can't remember any times someone posted a model run showing a significant snow in the medium range. I guess the bright side to that is there's been no teasers, since the pattern's sucked too bad for even fantasy snows to appear. there have been absolutely zero big fantasy snowstorms on the gfs for a while now which tells me that the pattern for atleast the next 2 weeks will remain pretty lame. After the rainstorm, its amazing how flat the pattern becomes with the -PNA and +NAO (on the 00z gfs).. Im not excited but hopefully this is just all part of the pattern change into snowier times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What's amazing about this winter is we've had very few threats in the D 5+ fantasy range to even talk about as being snow. I can't remember any times someone posted a model run showing a significant snow in the medium range. I guess the bright side to that is there's been no teasers, since the pattern's sucked too bad for even fantasy snows to appear. I was talking about this to my friend the other day. Anytime a model would show a threat at even day 6 that looked like a nice snow event, by the time it got to day 5 it would change from whatever snowy scenario it showed to the same cutoff storm we've had every freaking event so far this winter. It's unreal. Like I love how this storm for next week literally wait's the entire time for the cold air to come in, and then follows it right on out. I guess all you can do is just laugh in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 there have been absolutely zero big fantasy snowstorms on the gfs for a while now which tells me that the pattern for atleast the next 2 weeks will remain pretty lame. After the rainstorm, its amazing how flat the pattern becomes with the -PNA and +NAO (on the 00z gfs).. Im not excited but hopefully this is just all part of the pattern change into snowier times I mentioned in the main thread, a -PNA/EPO/AO is not going to be as good for us this year as it may have been in 1993-94, the reason being the La Nina is going to want to tend to pump that SE ridge, as a result it will be harder to get away with the +NAO this year than it would have been then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 How this one got overlooked by the weenies I don't know but tonight's CMC is darn close at 108 hours, and does have a precip event for C-S NJ, likely snow just from scanning it quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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