SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 And just like that the 00Z Op GFS has the AK Vortex again in the longer range. Have to see if the ensembles agree or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I would say they dont agree. And just like that the 00Z Op GFS has the AK Vortex again in the longer range. Have to see if the ensembles agree or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It looks to be totally dry for nearly seven days, something not easy to do around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Fast forward to the 06Z GFS, it has possibly the warmest setup ever in one of the best high latitude blocking patterns across NP, Canada, and AK you're ever going to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The models usually have a hard time with pattern changes. Lets see if this is the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The models usually have a hard time with pattern changes. Lets see if this is the case here. The models are likely correct on the pattern shift, but the bad Atlantic setup looks like it still may be a problem, we may get the AK block and -AO but the problem may still be the PV wanting to sit too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Fast forward to the 06Z GFS, it has possibly the warmest setup ever in one of the best high latitude blocking patterns across NP, Canada, and AK you're ever going to see. Does that seem likely? For me the more important thing would be to focus on the high latitude blocking. The cold should show up and there is good snowcover in Canada for homegrown cold. Of course I am in central New Hampshire so it's easy for me to get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The main pattern change between 5 and 10 days out looks like it will be a step down in Canadian temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 at least the height anomolies across much of the east are at least neutral to fairly negative according to the latest long range ensembles. There's been such a dominant positive height anomaly for so much of the country for such an extended period of time. The high latitude alaskan ridging is promising.. but just a piece of the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 doesnt look like the setup around 220 hours is going to do us much good. Deep trough across the east but lack of any real ridging over or west of greenland keeps the trough progressive and not a good setup for east coast snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The problem going foward will be the NAO. I am not sure if the NAO will go negative. We should get help from the AO and EPO though. Both of those look like they will go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The problem going foward will be the NAO. I am not sure if the NAO will go negative. We should get help from the AO and EPO though. Both of those look like they will go negative. I liked the look of the GFS past 180 hours. 6z GFS has a low just offshore when it is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I liked the look of the GFS past 180 hours. 6z GFS has a low just offshore when it is cold. So? We have had countless lows offshore so far when its been cold enough to snow. We are still skunked. This is what happens with Nina with no blocking. The cold and precip rarely line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 So? We have had countless lows offshore so far when its been cold enough to snow. We are still skunked. This is what happens with Nina with no blocking. The cold and precip rarely line up. Cutter, hugger, or suppressed have been the storm track menu choices since it snowed at the end of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 So? We have had countless lows offshore so far when its been cold enough to snow. We are still skunked. This is what happens with Nina with no blocking. The cold and precip rarely line up. yep... pattern has been way too progressve.. you can see it by the drastic temperature swings we've had lately too.. I think it's taking it's toll.. a water pipe burst this morning a few houses down from me.. had to call the water company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Pray the GFS is wrong, Alaskan Vortex comex back big time. And the pole is back into the freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Pray the GFS is wrong, Alaskan Vortex comex back big time. And the pole is back into the freezer. It's tough to know with the GFS ensemble mean much past the 192 hr truncation what will actually happen in AK. The Euro ensembles looked better there but it's still an early call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It's tough to know with the GFS ensembles much past the 192 hr truncation what will actually happen in AK. The Euro ensembles looked better there but it's still an early call. looked at the full euro ensemble suite out to 360 very gradient like with not much help over greenland and questionable over Alaska. Way too close for comfort in terms of the gradient and evidence the SE Ridge builds back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The 15 day forecast ensemble or not and euro or gfs, does'nt matter as much as inside the 10 day timeframe which is more acurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I think I'm just going to root for snowless-it's alot easier at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 12Z CMC has the cutter going over Detroit next week and sends most of the US into the cold after. Can only see to hour 180 on ewall, but afterwards it forms a pseudo vortex spinning over the Great Lakes for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 988mb low east of NJ in early/mid January and no one's snowing per the 12z GFS. If that actually happens, you know the pattern blows chunks. I have a feeling we'll see a lot more changes wrt that mid week storm, but regardless, it looks to be the event to get the ball rolling toward a more favorable regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 12Z CMC has the cutter going over Detroit next week and sends most of the US into the cold after. Can only see to hour 180 on ewall, but afterwards it forms a pseudo vortex spinning over the Great Lakes for a couple days. that would actually help the NAO go negative for a little bit and maybe we get a window here, but like all our windows so far, they close as soon as we point them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 that would actually help the NAO go negative for a little bit and maybe we get a window here, but like all our windows so far, they close as soon as we point them out. Would help, but most likely the CMC is way over done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 988mb low east of NJ in early/mid January and no one's snowing per the 12z GFS. If that actually happens, you know the pattern blows chunks. I have a feeling we'll see a lot more changes wrt that mid week storm, but regardless, it looks to be the event to get the ball rolling toward a more favorable regime. The vort after this cutoff is much better looking and more interesting on this run. Unfortunately its 180 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The vort after this cutoff is much better looking and more interesting on this run. Unfortunately its 180 hours out. Looks like the 12z euro is also digging this vort after the cutoff; more then the gfs and its trying to form a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 12Z euro isn't looking particularly entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 almost pulls it off around 200 hours with the wave AG3 is talking about, but the 500 low craps the bed and it remains progressive. Close though. We get some snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 almost pulls it off around 200 hours with the wave AG3 is talking about, but the 500 low craps the bed and it remains progressive. Close though. We get some snow showers yea, that's pretty much the extent of it.. looks like the Euro builds the vortex again west of Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Looks like the 12z euro is also digging this vort after the cutoff; more then the gfs and its trying to form a coastal. 12Z euro isn't looking particularly entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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