bluewave Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 a few days before the kennedy inaugural blizzard: You would just need the PNA to go strongly positive for a while to compensate for the lack of Atlantic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It got killed in the Dec 27 storm. It tried to track the thing over Cape Cod even just 3 days out and it ended up over upstate NY west of SLK like the Euro had it. Complete failure. I would never trust the GFS over the Euro unless there was a very good reason to like the Euro being against its own ensembles or something. GFS only managed to beat it in the 12/23 system...otherwise its getting thoroughly beaten as usual. make sure you tell Tip too http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31597-next-weeks-major-storm-and-beyond/page__view__findpost__p__1245895 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro is really nice after next week's storm. It shows big heights in Alaska and Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Meanwhile it's in the low to mid 20s area wide. Are we supposed to have late highs or something? It's now cloudy so I don't see temps rising much at all anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Meanwhile it's in the low to mid 20s area wide. Are we supposed to have late highs or something? It's now cloudy so I don't see temps rising much at all anymore. As far as I understand it, temps should slowly go up as the night goes on w/ WAA.. This is what will give us the slight chance (more of a chance Central NJ) of some snow this evening.. (very light, if anything at all) Tomorrow should be noticeably warmer as will the next few days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 This looks solid for potentially some flurries. Even with the 20 dBz we barely see any accumulate, but who cares. Flurries would be nice. The lower atmosphere is super dry, seeing flurries would be impressive given the amount of dry air and little QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Meanwhile it's in the low to mid 20s area wide. Are we supposed to have late highs or something? It's now cloudy so I don't see temps rising much at all anymore. LAMP guidance indicates steady or rising temperatures during the evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The energy coming out of the SW next week could give us over an inch of rain and strong winds especially if it can phase with the northern branch like we saw a few times back in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 LAMP guidance indicates steady or rising temperatures during the evening hours. WAA will do that to you, but little does Sundog realize, that's how he will see the 5 flakes he is chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 ...And then we have these. Analog skewed, weenied out, and sure to get metfan foaming at the mouth. I present to you, the GEFS super ensemble height anomalies at 500mb with a Aleutian block extending all the way to the Davis Straight and Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Hell, I'm foaming at the mouth looking at that map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Hell, I'm foaming at the mouth looking at that map! Me to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ...And then we have these. Analog skewed, weenied out, and sure to get metfan foaming at the mouth. I present to you, the GEFS super ensemble height anomalies at 500mb with a Aleutian block extending all the way to the Davis Straight and Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The lower atmosphere is super dry, seeing flurries would be impressive given the amount of dry air and little QPF. Yeah, I agree. However, because I am bored and feel like being a weenie today (lol), FWIW, the HRRR does seem to have a good handle on the dry air at the surface. Also, my dewpoint has been slowly rising: The HRRR shows dewpoints rising in the teens by this evening, and this: So yes, it will still probably be tough to get anything other than stray flurries - but who wouldn't take those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ...And then we have these. Analog skewed, weenied out, and sure to get metfan foaming at the mouth. I present to you, the GEFS super ensemble height anomalies at 500mb with a Aleutian block extending all the way to the Davis Straight and Greenland. FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If the GEFS super ensembles are even close to being right, old man winter will back with a vengeance. There is overwhelming support for a pattern change, and we all know that. It starts with the pacific and eventually ends up in the atlantic. Second half of Jan thru Feb may put on quite a show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You would just need the PNA to go strongly positive for a while to compensate for the lack of Atlantic blocking. in most cases i can think of, the PNA went positive in brief, intense periods. jan 11 and feb 06 included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ...And then we have these. Analog skewed, weenied out, and sure to get metfan foaming at the mouth. I present to you, the GEFS super ensemble height anomalies at 500mb with a Aleutian block extending all the way to the Davis Straight and Greenland. Excuse me while I clean my self up!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 those are skewed but it's still a good sign to see all the ridging showing up surrounding the polar vortex. high latitude ridging has been almost absent so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Question to those more experienced with stratospheric warming: from what I assume, it takes time for the warming to have a more significant impact on the overall pattern, but at the rate that it's going now, about how much time would it take for the pattern to react and become colder and snowier than it is now? Also, does the current stratospheric warming signal what type of pattern we might change to, such as an interior, gradient or a coastal pattern, or will that become more evident later on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 FROM DT - Quote - *** ALERT *** 12z GFS and EURO both agree on MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE coming for Mid January . Both Models shows large scale cold air / possibly arctic air mass outbreaks by Day 9-10 over entire eastern half of the CONUS.. not 2 or 3 day shots but some serious WHAMMO!!! Unquote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 A map of beauty there -AO and building -NAO scream cold and stormy potential taken verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I really hope you guys finally start getting some snow action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The OP Euro looks overdone with the cold behind the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 A map of beauty there -AO and building -NAO scream cold and stormy potential taken verbatim That ridging near Greenland actually stays there for over 24 hours this run without quickly moving away... Looking back through December and most of November, I can't find any other example of a Greenland set up like the one on the ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 That ridging near Greenland actually stays there for over 24 hours this run without quickly moving away... Looking back through December and most of November, I can't find any other example of a Greenland set up like the one on the ECM. If one were to extrapolate the Euro after day ten, I would bet the heights over Greenland would continue to build westward since the PV in that vicinity has been destroyed. Look at that pacific! The -EPO builds and delivers an arctic attack over the eastern us...we knew it was coming..just a matter of when... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm still not really convinced plus latest gfs long range has a lot of resistance to the cold air mass that tries to slide south. The fact that it shows such a massive cold air supply on our side of the globe is a positive sign, the decline of the AO is a huge sign, but any changes still seem so far away. Prospects are increasing for a major east coast inland rainstorm for next week that seems like a precursor to a potential pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 If the GEFS super ensembles are even close to being right, old man winter will back with a vengeance. There is overwhelming support for a pattern change, and we all know that. It starts with the pacific and eventually ends up in the atlantic. Second half of Jan thru Feb may put on quite a show... I'm still going with this being similar to what occurred in 1997, 1999, and 2000, the January switchover followed by a mild February. I just do not see there being enough of a change in the high latitudes to cause this whole shift to last for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Oh, look - light snow is reaching the ground in southern NJ/Philly metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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