atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00z ECM @ 192 looks similar to the 00z GGEM but by 216-240 hours there is a monster trough across a large portion of the USA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00z ECM @ 192 looks similar to the 00z GGEM but by 216-240 hours there is a monster trough across a large portion of the USA... nothing to keep it from cutting unfortunately if anything decides to amplify and phase in the south central u.s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 nothing to keep it from cutting unfortunately if anything decides to amplify and phase in the south central u.s. Oh i agree 100% and I been saying the pattern right now sucks.. Just some on another site because the ECM was showing what it was at 12 Z were more or less leaning towards that storm bringing snow... I have been trying to hammer until the Alaskan Vortex is gone it is going to continue to be the same pattern with transient cold shots..thread the needle type events that generally do not work ..cause you need perfect timing of all the players..and then warm up before more cold air... However..i was told i was wrong because there is a Major SSW occurring...and I am not taking this into consideration and its just a matter of time before the models catch on to this... My view is that it needs to propagate downwards before it can begin to effect the pattern and by the time this occurs we be looking at Feb...and that is IF it occurs because not all them do propagate downwards to effect the weather pattern in North America! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It got killed in the Dec 27 storm. It tried to track the thing over Cape Cod even just 3 days out and it ended up over upstate NY west of SLK like the Euro had it. Complete failure. I would never trust the GFS over the Euro unless there was a very good reason to like the Euro being against its own ensembles or something. GFS only managed to beat it in the 12/23 system...otherwise its getting thoroughly beaten as usual. Day 5-8, the euro has been very shaky this year. Constantly showing overamplified east coast storms. The 4dvar models have usually followed it while the gfs has not. This weekend monster "storm" is another example of the 4dvar models overamplifying. Overall, the euro blows away the gfs, especially inside of 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ECMWF is still ahead in scores on the sheet for verification, right? I'm specifically talking about the day 5-8 range for east coast storms. But overall, yes, the euro has higher verification scores, and by far. The gfs is behind the euro, ukie and sometimes the jma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Day 5-8, the euro has been very shaky this year. Constantly showing overamplified east coast storms. The 4dvar models have usually followed it while the gfs has not. This weekend monster "storm" is another example of the 4dvar models overamplifying. Overall, the euro blows away the gfs, especially inside of 5 days. I've noticed over the past two ECMWF is more overamplified, when the GGEM agrees with it and not the UKMET. Generally, I like a Euro/UK combo, than a Euro/GGEM combo on a winter storm in days 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The ensembles still show major amplfication during the 12-15th period. The NCEP and ECMWF ensemble means today are higher with the negative 500mb height anomalies over the Ohio Valley, than were yesterday. At very least it looks colder again. The models are also hinting as some phasing with northern and southern streams, during this period. But with no decent -NAO block, it: unlikely to come together for a major winter storm: Also The NCEP ensemble mean at 360hrs, no longer shows a SE ridge, so we might not get too mild again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Even when the OP Euro was struggling with the details of the amplification this week, the ensemble mean had the correct idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The ensembles still show major amplfication during the 12-15th period. The NCEP and ECMWF ensemble means today are higher with the negative 500mb height anomalies over the Ohio Valley, than were yesterday. At very least it looks colder again. The models are also hinting as some phasing with northern and southern streams, during this period. But with no decent -NAO block, it: unlikely to come together for a major winter storm: Also The NCEP ensemble mean at 360hrs, no longer shows a SE ridge, so we might not get too mild again: While I agree the setup is a tick or two away from giving us something major, we could be looking at a small Archambault event here as the AO goes from +++++ to negative, the NAO goes from ++++++++ to neutral or slightly negative, even as far west as the southern davis strait, and the PNA goes from positive to neutral negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Temperatures really rise next week as a result of a strong area of lp cutting to our west and delivering a substantial amount of rain. Strong waa ahead of the lp but cold air arrives as the storm departs. GFS really amplifies this shortwave. This all according to the 12z gfs, will see what happens. If it occurs like this, hopefully this low at least becomes a block and allows for a more favorable pattern after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Temperatures really rise next week as a result of a strong area of lp cutting to our west and delivering a substantial amount of rain. Strong waa ahead of the lp but cold air arrives as the storm departs. GFS really amplifies this shortwave. This all according to the 12z gfs, will see what happens. If it occurs like this, hopefully this low at least becomes a block and allows for a more favorable pattern after. These cutters have been pumping the ridge near Newfoundland but the heights have not been able to build poleward due to the PV holding on hear the Davis Strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Modelling becoming more and more consistent w/ each new run on the negative AO post January 10th, and this should not be fantasy given other stratospheric and solar indicators right now. Judgement week coming up, now or never... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Modelling becoming more and more consistent w/ each new run on the negative AO post January 10th, and this should not be fantasy given other stratospheric and solar indicators right now. Judgement week coming up, now or never... Still not liking how we can just not dislodge the pv over greenland but if the AO and EPO do what it looks like they are going to do , we should at least be wintery around here. Nice Icelandic/Finish block at the end of the gfs today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Still not liking how we can just not dislodge the pv over greenland but if the AO and EPO do what it looks like they are going to do , we should at least be wintery around here. Nice Icelandic/Finish block at the end of the gfs today as well. At least right now, this looks more like an extension of the Caspian Ridge and less like something that will dislodge the PV just yet. We'll have to wait and see if this is a step in the right direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Still not liking how we can just not dislodge the pv over greenland but if the AO and EPO do what it looks like they are going to do , we should at least be wintery around here. Nice Icelandic/Finish block at the end of the gfs today as well. Last night's 00z ECMWF was the closest I've seen yet in terms of dislodging the vortex; I think we're definitely heading in the right direction. My guess is modelling becomes more bullish on dislodging the Greenland vortex once the neg AO comes to frution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised if this shortwave touched off some flurries or snow showers later in the day. There could be a period of steady snow showers that develops near the coast or just off it later as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Last night's 00z ECMWF was the closest I've seen yet in terms of dislodging the vortex; I think we're definitely heading in the right direction. My guess is modelling becomes more bullish on dislodging the Greenland vortex once the neg AO comes to frution. At least right now, this looks more like an extension of the Caspian Ridge and less like something that will dislodge the PV just yet. We'll have to wait and see if this is a step in the right direction though. We need a real lakes cutter to bust that thing out of there. That would do it, but as it is, nothing modeled in the long range looks to do any permanent damage to that one eyed monster. At least we got rid of the alaskan vortex, at least the way it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z UKMET appears to have some light precip tonight for Sandy Hook and south and into Philly. Skims NYC and LI also but with very light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 We need a real lakes cutter to bust that thing out of there. That would do it, but as it is, nothing modeled in the long range looks to do any permanent damage to that one eyed monster. At least we got rid of the alaskan vortex, at least the way it looks now. The stratospheric warming argues for a dislodging or split of the vortex over Canada at some point in the near future. It may be a gradual process, but we are beginning to see some more significant warming even at 50 hpa. The Euro ensembles continue to show another warming event through the end of the run. Eventually, especially with the global regime changing around it, that vortex will almost be forced to split or be dislodged. Where it ends up, and how the Pacific responds, is still up in the air and has big implications on our pattern. We are coming down to "crunch time" here in the next week or two, where we will really begin to find out how the second half of the month is going to shake out..and what that will mean moving forward into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z UKMET appears to have some light precip tonight for Sandy Hook and south and into Philly. Skims NYC and LI also but with very light precip. The SPC WRF has this as well, keeps it just offshore and away from the NYC Metro. It looks like enough to clip the New Jersey shore with some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The stratospheric warming argues for a dislodging or split of the vortex over Canada at some point in the near future. It may be a gradual process, but we are beginning to see some more significant warming even at 50 hpa. The Euro ensembles continue to show another warming event through the end of the run. Eventually, especially with the global regime changing around it, that vortex will almost be forced to split or be dislodged. Where it ends up, and how the Pacific responds, is still up in the air and has big implications on our pattern. We are coming down to "crunch time" here in the next week or two, where we will really begin to find out how the second half of the month is going to shake out..and what that will mean moving forward into February. I think we are talking about different things. We seem to be doing ok at working the AO back to negative territory, but there is still the issue of the large negative anomoloy over greeenaldn, doesnt look like that is going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The SPC WRF has this as well, keeps it just offshore and away from the NYC Metro. It looks like enough to clip the New Jersey shore with some light snow. Hopefully the newer data with the HRRR runs are picking it up better then the 6 hour old 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 I think we are talking about different things. We seem to be doing ok at working the AO back to negative territory, but there is still the issue of the large negative anomoloy over greeenaldn, doesnt look like that is going anywhere. Well, like I said that will come with time. Stratospheric warming/even SSW's don't necessarily mean the downfall of a large vortex over Central Canada immediately. But what we are seeing now, certainly argues for its demise. These things can sometimes take two weeks or more to downwell. And when it does occur, the vortex will split or re-establish itself elsewhere. That process in itself will promote more high latitude ridging, especially with the modeled ridge from the Aleutians extending towards Western Greenland on the super ensembles and ECMWF ensembles. With the AO reversal, and then the downwelling causing the weakening of the vortex over Canada, it is certainly possible we see an AO and NAO reversal by the end of the January towards more favorable states. I wouldn't run with that occurring right now, but it definitely isn't unfathomable. The pattern change is happening. We just need to watch very carefully over the next few weeks how the atmosphere responds..and remember not to go wild if the vortex over Canada doesn't disappear on modeling immediately. The downwelling can take two weeks or more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Hopefully the newer data with the HRRR runs are picking it up better then the 6 hour old 12z runs. This looks solid for potentially some flurries. Even with the 20 dBz we barely see any accumulate, but who cares. Flurries would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well, like I said that will come with time. Stratospheric warming/even SSW's don't necessarily mean the downfall of a large vortex over Central Canada immediately. But what we are seeing now, certainly argues for its demise. These things can sometimes take two weeks or more to downwell. And when it does occur, the vortex will split or re-establish itself elsewhere. That process in itself will promote more high latitude ridging, especially with the modeled ridge from the Aleutians extending towards Western Greenland on the super ensembles and ECMWF ensembles. With the AO reversal, and then the downwelling causing the weakening of the vortex over Canada, it is certainly possible we see an AO and NAO reversal by the end of the January towards more favorable states. I wouldn't run with that occurring right now, but it definitely isn't unfathomable. The pattern change is happening. We just need to watch very carefully over the next few weeks how the atmosphere responds..and remember not to go wild if the vortex over Canada doesn't disappear on modeling immediately. The downwelling can take two weeks or more . And then you have to worry about this. The blocking comes alright, on the other side of the globe. Essentially the mirror image of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 This looks solid for potentially some flurries. Even with the 20 dBz we barely see any accumulate, but who cares. Flurries would be nice. It expands northward on next few frames and into the whole area. But the HRRR is pretty bad, past 4-5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 And then you have to worry about this. The blocking comes alright, on the other side of the globe. Essentially the mirror image of last year. Yeah, too far on that side of the globe to stop the SE Ridge from flexing it's muscles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 looks familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 we have gotten big KU's with a terrible atlantic before: it's all about keeping the storm track to our south... in the dec 1960 case above, the huge PV was enough, combined with the west canada ridge preventing the vortex from lifting north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 a few days before the kennedy inaugural blizzard: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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