Analog96 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 14.4 and falling pretty quickly WOW! How is it colder in Brooklyn than here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Dunno but looking at the nearest weather station by me. The one nearest that is .3 degrees warmer WOW! How is it colder in Brooklyn than here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 WOW! How is it colder in Brooklyn than here? The other boroughs of NYC besides Manhattan especially Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island and Queens (where there is hilly terrain and parks) have less of an urban heat effect than Manhattan and the heavy urban cities of NE NJ (Elizabeth, Newark). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It looks like as if there is warming going on in the stratosphere, but it seems to be confined to mostly the upper stratosphere for now. From 1 hPa to 50 hPa, warming is starting to take shape, but it is no where close to 500 mb yet. The warming at 10 hPa is REALLY impressive though. It's very pleasing to see those extreme warm anomalies begin to press south against Northern Greenland. It's also beneficial to see those warm anomalies over Asia which could induce more troughs and low pressure systems there to pull more ridging to the west towards the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The other boroughs of NYC besides Manhattan especially Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island and Queens (where there is hilly terrain and parks) have less of an urban heat effect than Manhattan and the heavy urban cities of NE NJ (Elizabeth, Newark). But the warm water negates that on the South shore normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 But the warm water negates that on the South shore normally. The south shore of Brooklyn? If that's what you are referring to, they are not getting any onshore winds due to the NW winds canceling them out. They get onshore winds in the afternoons of summers most often anyway. Also, the ocean temperatures are dropping like a rock right now and will hit the minimum temperature in February to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 17 degrees here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 17 degrees here Just hit 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 0z GFS says what storm this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 0z GFS says what storm this weekend Consistent with the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Trying to develop the 2nd wave at hour 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 0z GFS says what storm this weekend It is still there at 138 hours off the coast of Hatteras...just not effecting the region like the GGEM or ECM was suggesting at 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Weak and just offshore at hour 150. GFS is keying in on the 2nd piece of energy now instead of the 1st like the euro and ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Over all a pretty pathetic run on the GFS from start to finish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Hour 108 of ggem looks cold and light precip is up to SNJ and decent precip into DC. Not sure if it's coming up based off the crappy black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Ggem lost the storm as well. Weak and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Over all a pretty pathetic run on the GFS from start to finish! For storms, yes. It's also not super cold, but no real torches either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Ggem lost the storm as well. Weak and OTS. If we could get it a little north, would we want it weak? We wouldn't want it to strengthen too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 wow..nothing exciting at all on the gfs. PV sits in the same spot from hr 0-384 while the entire pattern is fast and progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 For storms, yes. It's also not super cold, but no real torches either. Not referring to just storms but look at this.. First is 180 hours Second is 348 hours Pretty much just transient shots of colder weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If we could get it a little north, would we want it weak? We wouldn't want it to strengthen too soon. It's on it's way to the gfs idea of no storm though. Gfs hasn't had the 1st wave at day 4-5 for 2 runs now and tries to develop the 2nd vort around hour 144, day 6. The gfs has really been schooling the euro lately with regards to east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Not referring to just storms but look at this.. First is 180 hours Second is 348 hours Pretty much just transient shots of colder weather.... Hmmm.. it didn't look that bad looking at the 850 line at each interval. At any rate, maybe the 00z GFS is the GFS's turn to be negative.. 12z and 18z are always more positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's on it's way to the gfs idea of no storm though. Gfs hasn't had the 1st wave at day 4-5 for 2 runs now and tries to develop the 2nd vort around hour 144, day 6. The gfs has really been schooling the euro lately with regards to east coast storms. It still may end up more north in this pattern, but that would bring the danger of a rain solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's on it's way to the gfs idea of no storm though. Gfs hasn't had the 1st wave at day 4-5 for 2 runs now and tries to develop the 2nd vort around hour 144, day 6. The gfs has really been schooling the euro lately with regards to east coast storms. The GFS SHOULD be better in a Northern-stream dominated pattern like this. That's what it does best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's on it's way to the gfs idea of no storm though. Gfs hasn't had the 1st wave at day 4-5 for 2 runs now and tries to develop the 2nd vort around hour 144, day 6. The gfs has really been schooling the euro lately with regards to east coast storms. It got killed in the Dec 27 storm. It tried to track the thing over Cape Cod even just 3 days out and it ended up over upstate NY west of SLK like the Euro had it. Complete failure. I would never trust the GFS over the Euro unless there was a very good reason to like the Euro being against its own ensembles or something. GFS only managed to beat it in the 12/23 system...otherwise its getting thoroughly beaten as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's on it's way to the gfs idea of no storm though. Gfs hasn't had the 1st wave at day 4-5 for 2 runs now and tries to develop the 2nd vort around hour 144, day 6. The gfs has really been schooling the euro lately with regards to east coast storms. ECMWF is still ahead in scores on the sheet for verification, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ECMWF is still ahead in scores on the sheet for verification, right? Yes it is...easily. But my post was mostly talking about closer than 5-6 days out. I could see there being no storm easily and the Euro being too amped up....but in general once we get in closer, the Euro wins. It wins at this time range too, but specifics are fuzzier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 GGEM has a large system effect the region but it pretty much looks like a massive rainstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Do not know if there is any precipitation between 96-120 but the ECM now looks to be too far to the NE as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro has a late blooming miller B at 150 hours which clips the Cape and Islands. Some light precipitation thrown back through the area at 144 as the surface low is deepening offshore and the shortwave passes overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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