TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 We all know the drill, it will trend further NW and even at that, with no cold air, snow will be confirmed to the highest elevations.... 1001 feet and higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 True, but possibly the Euro is too wound up with the storm. All of other models are weaker with the storm and further southeast. In fact, of most interest is the Canadian model which was very wound up and very west with the 0z run but weaker and further east with the 12z run, producing the possibility of some snow for Northern New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 They better have a better thermometer at KJRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 True, but possibly the Euro is too wound up with the storm. All of other models are weaker with the storm and further southeast. In fact, of most interest is the Canadian model which was very wound up and very west with the 0z run but weaker and further east with the 12z run, producing the possibility of some snow for Northern New Jersey. GGEM is rain across Northern New Jersey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GGEM is rain across Northern New Jersey! What is with that little blob of Freezing Rain over NENJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The Ukie does not even show a storm for the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 What is with that little blob of Freezing Rain over NENJ? Mt. Earthlight, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Mt. Earthlight, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Surprised there is not more talk here about the possible snow that the Euro and Canadian models are showing for Sunday. While most areas would be rain for the majority of the storm, except possibly extreme NW NJ, it does look to change to some accumulating snow for Northern NJ on Sunday. Do you realize how many times the EC has given us snow up here in this time frame? The NW trend will continue.. But as of now your right.. The 12z EC from hr123 to hr132 gives us a nice blanket of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Do you realize how many times the EC has given us snow up here in this time frame? The NW trend will continue.. But as of now your right.. The 12z EC from hr123 to hr132 gives us a nice blanket of snow.. The euro is Dr. Yes from hours 100-240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The euro is Dr. Yes from hours 100-240. Yeah I wouldnt put much stock into the EC beyond 4 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS still advertising, and rather robustly, a nice change around the 13th with real warming over the pole and higher heights over greenland. Sets up a very favorable pattern over the northeast. Lets really pay attention to this time period. Also showing some big time ridging into alaska and over siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS still advertising, and rather robustly, a nice change around the 13th with real warming over the pole and higher heights over greenland. Sets up a very favorable pattern over the northeast. Lets really pay attention to this time period. Also showing some big time ridging into alaska and over siberia. winter certainly isnt over by a long shot in the east i mean we still got january, febraury and a good bit of march. your right though this time period will have to be watched closely as far as a favorable pattern developing for the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Was just reading that there is a Major SSW going on..Is this true and is any of it reaching down into the 500 mb level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Was just reading that there is a Major SSW going on..Is this true and is any of it reaching down into the 500 mb level? It looks like as if there is warming going on in the stratosphere, but it seems to be confined to mostly the upper stratosphere for now. From 1 hPa to 50 hPa, warming is starting to take shape, but it is no where close to 500 mb yet. The warming at 10 hPa is REALLY impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Was just reading that there is a Major SSW going on..Is this true and is any of it reaching down into the 500 mb level? You want to see the warming start to affect areas like 50mb and we are starting to see that. The Euro ensembles have a big warming event towards the end of the run which definitely will help us. The 5hpa warming chart which I posted yesterday is a good sign as it shows well above average values as of 1/1. It may come in waves, but that usually propagates towards the more important levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 So basically we are just seeing one more signal of a "step down" to a possible snowier pattern..winter delayed but not denied. Makes one wonder what February will look like around here. You want to see the warming start to affect areas like 50mb and we are starting to see that. The Euro ensembles have a big warming event towards the end of the run which definitely will help us. The 5hpa warming chart which I posted yesterday is a good sign as it shows well above average values as of 1/1. It may come in waves, but that usually propagates towards the more important levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You want to see the warming start to affect areas like 50mb and we are starting to see that. The Euro ensembles have a big warming event towards the end of the run which definitely will help us. The 5hpa warming chart which I posted yesterday is a good sign as it shows well above average values as of 1/1. It may come in waves, but that usually propagates towards the more important levels. i know there are other factors to really determine the driving force of a pattern change for us in east, but if the stratospheric warming does really propogate to the more important levels when would we see the effects per se? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i know there are other factors to really determine the driving force of a pattern change for us in east, but if the stratospheric warming does really propogate to the more important levels when would we see the effects per se? Roughly 2.5-3.5 weeks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Roughly 2.5-3.5 weeks.. end of january through march could be pretty nice around here based upon the things John, Isotherm, and others are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 end of january through march could be pretty nice around here based upon the things John, Isotherm, and others are talking about. judging by this and some signs that there may be signs a more dignified patter change by the mid-end month ( save for a few snow chances ), february is starting to look interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 judging by this and some signs that there may be signs a more dignified patter change by the mid-end month ( save for a few snow chances ), february is starting to look interesting climatologically its our best month, so we have that on our side. I have a VERY good feeling we all see a decent snow by 1/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 judging by this and some signs that there may be signs a more dignified patter change by the mid-end month ( save for a few snow chances ), february is starting to look interesting So end of January and February are where the pattern is going to change, is it going to be a gradient pattern like the gfs has been hinting at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Speaking of 50hpa...this is a very good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Speaking of 50hpa...this is a very good sign. yuppers. Keep em coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 0z nam is really warm saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Down to 15 here, it will be very interesting to see if we can get single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 000 ASUS41 KOKX 040305 RWROKX REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1000 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2012 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-040400- NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK CLEAR 17 -1 45 W12G25 30.15R WCI 4 LAGUARDIA APRT CLEAR 19 4 51 NW25 30.13R WCI 1 KENNEDY INTL CLEAR 19 -3 38 NW20G28 30.13R WCI 3 NEWARK/LIBERTY CLEAR 17 -4 39 NW18G25 30.15R WCI 1 TETERBORO CLEAR 18 -2 41 NW15G21 30.14R WCI 4 WHITE PLAINS CLEAR 16 -1 47 NW15 30.08R WCI 1 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Down to 15 here, it will be very interesting to see if we can get single digits. 17 here. My expectations are low given the persistent 10-15mph winds. My guess for MBY is 13. NYC probably 13-14. If we could decouple we'd be talking single digits easily (suburbia). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 14.4 and falling pretty quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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