Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 On CMC color maps, if I am seeing it correctly at hour 144, 0z 1/9/12, it looks like 999 and is over Baltimore. I really doubt this is going to happen as the GGEM continues to over amplify features almost daily in this pattern. And, if it did happen, I highly doubt it result in much more than rain at the coast and perhaps a mix inland or higher elevations. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 John -- great post, and agreed. As I posted in my thread, the period Jan 10-20 wlll get very active w/ the development of a -EPO and -AO, but a continued +NAO means the baroclinic zone will likely be close to our area. As you noted, hopefully for our sake, the SE ridge doesnt overpower. Disagree. The 00z GFS took a step back already and, other than some brief cold periods, it shows mostly above seasonal temps and much rain. I get the sense you keep repeatedly looking for things you want to see rather than what's really out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Disagree. The 00z GFS took a step back already and, other than some brief cold periods, it shows mostly above seasonal temps and much rain. I get the sense you keep repeatedly looking for things you want to see rather than what's really out there. It's not a step back from recent runs, IMO. The low strengthens but goes south and east. And we know the GFS long range changes nearly every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Decent east based NAO block sets up temporarily and helps reload some cold over eastern and central canada. Outlook looks much better for seasonal temperatures. PNA spikes will continue to help us as well That's true to some extent; however, the gradient sets up north of the Massachusetts Turnpike if this 0z GFS run is to believed. Verbatim, that means much of the I-95 corridor would receive mainly rain during any SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Disagree. The 00z GFS took a step back already and, other than some brief cold periods, it shows mostly above seasonal temps and much rain. I get the sense you keep repeatedly looking for things you want to see rather than what's really out there. Yep and the GGEM is not impressed with the long range either even though it only goes out to 240 It also has the storm from 144-156 as an inside runner but then its bias is to over phase systems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Disagree. The 00z GFS took a step back already and, other than some brief cold periods, it shows mostly above seasonal temps and much rain. I get the sense you keep repeatedly looking for things you want to see rather than what's really out there. Can you make a single post without an attack of some sort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Disagree. The 00z GFS took a step back already and, other than some brief cold periods, it shows mostly above seasonal temps and much rain. I get the sense you keep repeatedly looking for things you want to see rather than what's really out there. You disagree with his thoughts because of one GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 While it is only one GFS run, there is no mountain of evidence that supports the wishful thinking. We have repeatedly seen signs and hopes of a slightly colder and blockier pattern in the longer range maps abandoned by those same maps as we get closer to the real time weather. And in spite of the fact that it is only the very beginning of January, the days are getting longer and the time during which we could realistically get an extended wintry pattern gradually getting shorter. That said, there is still plenty of time....for another couple of weeks. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Tonights 00z ECM at 144 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 While it is only one GFS run, there is no mountain of evidence that supports the wishful thinking. We have repeatedly seen signs and hopes of a slightly colder and blockier pattern in the longer range maps abandoned by those same maps as we get closer to the real time weather. And in spite of the fact that it is only the very beginning of January, the days are getting longer and the time during which we could realistically get an extended wintry pattern gradually getting shorter. That said, there is still plenty of time....for another couple of weeks. WX/PT I wouldn't get into the "days longer" type of thinking just yet...at least not at this juncture / this latitude...winter generally starts to fade away around here close to 20 February, on average...7 weeks from today...and if the pattern is favorable...can sometimes be extended by another 10 to 20 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You disagree with his thoughts because of one GFS run? I guess tonight's 00z GFS really was the most important run of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 While it is only one GFS run, there is no mountain of evidence that supports the wishful thinking. We have repeatedly seen signs and hopes of a slightly colder and blockier pattern in the longer range maps abandoned by those same maps as we get closer to the real time weather. And in spite of the fact that it is only the very beginning of January, the days are getting longer and the time during which we could realistically get an extended wintry pattern gradually getting shorter. That said, there is still plenty of time....for another couple of weeks. WX/PT You act as if it's mid February or something; we've got a full 2.5 months of snow potential remaining (until about March 15th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 While it is only one GFS run, there is no mountain of evidence that supports the wishful thinking. We have repeatedly seen signs and hopes of a slightly colder and blockier pattern in the longer range maps abandoned by those same maps as we get closer to the real time weather. And in spite of the fact that it is only the very beginning of January, the days are getting longer and the time during which we could realistically get an extended wintry pattern gradually getting shorter. That said, there is still plenty of time....for another couple of weeks. WX/PT You have a good point about somewhat more favorable patterns disappearing on the models as we get closer. I'm not too worried about the one GFS run, but the trend of this winter is still a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Tonights 00z ECM at 144 hrs... That looks colder than recent runs, but how much precip, and is it timed well with the cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That looks colder than recent runs, but how much precip, and is it timed well with the cold air? I do not get the precipitation maps until about 2 AM-2:30 AM ..John would have to answer that..I can tell you from the Mid Atlantic thread that the low tracks over the MD region (very similar to the GGEM) and from reading there in that region it is all rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I wouldn't get into the "days longer" type of thinking just yet...at least not at this juncture / this latitude...winter generally starts to fade away around here close to 20 February, on average...7 weeks from today...and if the pattern is favorable...can sometimes be extended by another 10 to 20 days... Agree William. Daylight begins increasing rapidly post mid feb and I generally use march 10th-15th as the cut-off date for real winter patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Agree William. Daylight begins increasing rapidly post mid feb and I generally use march 10th-15th as the cut-off date for real winter patterns. Yeah Tom...notice I do not use the word "end" with regard to 20 February...but rather "begins to fade away"...just as I use 20 August in a similar fashion with regards to summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 The Euro is rain with that system for essentially the entire area. At 138 hours every level is too warm. There may be some back end flakes as the system departs but that solution offers very little hope for snowfall away from the high elevations or far north/west areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The Euro is rain with that system for essentially the entire area. At 138 hours every level is too warm. There may be some back end flakes as the system departs but that solution offers very little hope for snowfall away from the high elevations or far north/west areas. Thanks John..not going to compare to the low its bringing up the coast at 216! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The Euro is rain with that system for essentially the entire area. At 138 hours every level is too warm. There may be some back end flakes as the system departs but that solution offers very little hope for snowfall away from the high elevations or far north/west areas. I do not have access to the good maps...save for what the poster from Allentown put up...but with a cold high situated over Ontario...a storm east of New Jersey...and the time of year being early January...one would think you would be hard pressed to avoid snow in such a situation...particularly over the interior.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 I do not have access to the good maps...save for what the poster from Allentown put up...but with a cold high situated over Ontario...a storm east of New Jersey...and the time of year being early January...one would think you would be hard pressed to avoid snow in such a situation...particularly over the interior.... You'd think so, but the high is generally weak at 1020mb..and the 1012mb surface low is broad and tracks very near to the area. A southerly flow in the low levels allows 850mb temperatures to surge over 0 c for the majority of steady precipitation throughout much of the area. In addition, 2m temperatures are in the mid to upper 30's. Away from the coast and city, over the far interior and higher elevations, some marginal potential would exist for snow in that set up. But this is the first time I have seen the Euro or any model for that matter (other than the DGEX) show this first wave like this...so I would venture to guess we'll see many more solutions over the next few days as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Thanks John..not going to compare to the low its bringing up the coast at 216! That second one looks warmer than the first. A GFS/Euro compromise would be ideal for the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Thanks John..not going to compare to the low its bringing up the coast at 216! Lol, I wouldn't even mention that one..it could hurt some weenie's hearts in this thread. A sub 995mb low over the benchmark that is all rain even into the mountains of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That second one looks warmer than the first. A GFS/Euro compromise would be ideal for the first system. Yes that was my point because John said it was mainly rain (first system) which i do not think would compare to the time frame of Pier Corbyns Massive Snowfall ...because it appears to me the ECM is showing that time period as a Massive flooding potential.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yes that was my point because John said it was mainly rain (first system) which i do not think would compare to the time frame of Pier Corbyns Massive Snowfall ...because it appears to me the ECM is showing that time period as a Massive flooding potential.... Fortunately, that second system will probably look different even more times than the first. OK, I'm getting too much into banter now, so I'll continue in the other thread if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Lol, I wouldn't even mention that one..it could hurt some weenie's hearts in this thread. A sub 995mb low over the benchmark that is all rain even into the mountains of New England. its pretty much light years away from the gfs with the evolution of that 2nd storm. It hangs back strong energy and then rockets it up the coast when the trough in the midwest pulls it up. All rain with absolutely no northern stream interaction. Euro has a history with these solutions so i'd bet the gfs has a better handle, even if its OTS in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Wunderground weenie snow maps for the euro give a nice blanket of snow for NEPA/Extreme NW NJ/SE NY into NW CT from hr135 to about hr 144.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The Euro is rain with that system for essentially the entire area. At 138 hours every level is too warm. There may be some back end flakes as the system departs but that solution offers very little hope for snowfall away from the high elevations or far north/west areas. Do you think that this Euro run is a more viable run than the 0z GFS? I would think that the Euro and GGEM have a better hunch because with the PNA being very positive up until 1/9, shortwaves would have a tendency to amplify in a big way and cause surface lows to track more to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Surprise Report from Downtown Jersey City: I was on Grand Street here in downtown Jersey City, about 10 blocks from the Hudson, when I saw a very large round white object streak across the sky. The time was approximately 1:15AM. Did anyone else see this very unusual sight? I would think others in Downtown Jersey City or downtown New York with a view of the Hudson could have seen it, and possibly those in Hoboken and midtown near the Hudson could have seen whatever it was. I walked up to the Owen Grundy Park that's next to the Hudson River, hoping that someone there had seen what I had seen. Unfortunately for me, while there's often somebody there on many nights, nobody was sitting on the benches, or leaning on the rails or otherwise hanging out tonight. When I turned back to go home, I saw the moon. What I had seen was much larger than tonight's moon. It was definitely round and symmetrical. It had a number of small bits hanging off it. Did anyone else see this? Any idea of what it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 360hr NCEP ensemble mean. This is far out to be too reliable. But it has the ridging into the North Pole and into Greenland. But it's still not enough to keep the SE ridge suppressed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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