TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It is good to see the potential for a significant storm system once again on this run so far -- it looks like three or more runs in a row with this type of potential. Whether or not it gives us any snow, I think the potential exists for a rather dynamic event. we may have to take one on the chin to start the storm to clean up at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 570dm heights now well into British Columbia at 132 hours. Looks like there is less amplification though, when compared to 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The high comes in behind the cold front. We've seen this setup before. The southern branch speeds up and amplifies faster. this can go several ways especially with the kicker behind it. With that anomolous of a setup, hard to say "we have seen this before" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Looks like there is less amplification though, when compared to 00Z. Yeah definitely a bit. This run is a bit slower though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 576dm heights now into Eastern British Columbia at 150 hours. Yikes. Pretty strong signal for big time amplification in the Eastern 1/3 of the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Its still a cutter pattern, any storms look to cut to our west in the +NAO / +AO pattern, so its cold -> warm / rain -> cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 576dm heights now into Eastern British Columbia at 150 hours. Yikes. Pretty strong signal for big time amplification in the Eastern 1/3 of the CONUS. Vort still digging to the gulf coast, we really haven't seen the cyclogenesis this run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Its still a cutter pattern, any storms look to cut to our west in the +NAO / +AO pattern, so its cold -> warm / rain -> cold. Funny, because none of the storms have cut yet this winter, they have been just off the coast or over us, but lakes cutters not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Trough is trying to go negatively tilted near the MS at 168 -- this is either going to come really close to, or will show a big surface low development off the coast around 12 hours from this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Its still a cutter pattern, any storms look to cut to our west in the +NAO / +AO pattern, so its cold -> warm / rain -> cold. Generally, yes. But the ridge is shifting east slowly. All we need is a perfectly timed shortwave to dive into the trough, and amplify when the trough is in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Closed 500 low over TN Valley at 168 with the ridge moving into a great position and front off the coast with HP digging in over canda... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Its still a cutter pattern, any storms look to cut to our west in the +NAO / +AO pattern, so its cold -> warm / rain -> cold. another brilliant post A massive ridge out west like the EC/CMC are portraying is most definitly not a cutter pattern, regardless of the NAO/AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 1012mb low surface low off OBX now at 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Closed 500 low over TN Valley at 168 with the ridge moving into a great position and front off the coast with HP digging in over canda... Sub 500 heights over quebec, but will it be enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 500 low opens up at 174, may save a inland solution this run, but still we are really living on the edge here. crazy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Big hit at 180hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 there it is. Everyone pretend this is 12 hours from now and go be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Big hit at 180hrs. Been waiting all winter to here this phrase from you dude. So sad we haven't even had any weenie threats in this timeframe lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Holy moly. Beautiful hit at 186. Kicker saving the day over Idaho keep this from busting inland and raining on Mt. Earthlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Around 30 F in NYC and in the 20's in the suburbs at 186 hours with moderate snow -- 850 0c line is southeast of Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Around 30 F in NYC and in the 20's in the suburbs at 186 hours with moderate snow -- 850 0c line is southeast of Montauk. Do you have precip maps post 180? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Looks kinda warm, but we have time to work that out. Surface low tucks in really close to the NJ Coast at 192 but most areas are still snowing. 32 F line hasn't budged. Probably has flipped to sleet/rain near the immediate shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 0 line and 32 line right on top of one another at 192, this has to move east or the next frame is dry slot/rain still a huge dump prior to this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Finally the surface low is captured and goes over Eastern PA at 198 hours and everybody dryslots as the +NAO laughs. Verbatim, still probably a significant snowstorm prior to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 well, the surface low begins occlude and begins to rot out so we shut off the precip and warm up. Everyone sees a lot of snow before this time frame. Also, this is a seven day prog, so take it FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 0 line and 32 line right on top of one another at 192, this has to move east or the next frame is dry slot/rain still a huge dump prior to this time frame How are we lookin out here in the far western burbs?? Wunderground maps are only up to hr156.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Any chance this holds off until the 1/7-1/8 time frame? I'm gonna be really pissed if I miss this down in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Conservatively, 1 inch precip all frozen before occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 This would be a cool storm to experience, if the Euro has a clue. Definitely a heavy, wet snow prior to a changeover to sleet/drizzle as the surface low tucks into Pennsylvania. Can't say I've ever seen that before. Feb '10 was much farther north and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Great job on the play by play on the 12Z Euro - Earthlight and Trials. Needed an epic run to get the juices flowing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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