tmagan Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Attention grabbing headline, I guess they need to bring in some viewers as the weather has been incessantly boring. There are some well known 'hypecasters' in this market and I have been thinking how are they going to deal with this weather. The NAM indicates no measurable precip. after this evenings showers. That is borderline irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Here's something noteworthy as we struggle through this pattern.. ...RECORD ANNUAL PRECIPITATION SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD ANNUAL PRECIPITATION OF 69.91 INCHES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ IN THE YEAR 2011. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65.50 INCHES SET IN 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Some of the real arctic outbreaks usually bring the -30 contour at 850mb to our doorstep. A rare occurence though, -20c is much more routine. What was the last -30c intrusion down to our latitude? January 2004? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Here's something noteworthy as we struggle through this pattern.. ...RECORD ANNUAL PRECIPITATION SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD ANNUAL PRECIPITATION OF 69.91 INCHES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ IN THE YEAR 2011. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65.50 INCHES SET IN 1983. Looking at my weather station records this year, I find it impressive that 10/12 months were at or above normal temp wise. Only January and August finished colder than normal, and not by a significant amount. Both departures were in the -1 to -2 range. I finished Nov at +3 and December at +4.5. 2010 was also mostly warm, save for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Don't know if this was mentioned, but there is a PNS from NWSFO OKX on the validity, or lack thereof with regard to the 1983 precipitation record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Some of the warmer temperatures on Tuesday will come earlier in the day and possibly in the earlier afternoon. The NAM has slowed the arctic front so that on Tuesday between 09 and 15z, 850 temperatures are still between 12 and 16c. That could support temperatures in the mid or upper 20's. But with strong northwesterly winds, I think upper 20's is a better bet for an afternoon high than the NWS OKX 32 F. They may be going with an early morning high, too...the NAM has 12z Tuesday temperatures very near 30 F in NYC. I also agree about the low temperatures not being in the single digits in the city. It's a shame, but we can't hold this cold air at all. By early Wednesday morning the best cold air is already gone. But it will probably still be enough to get some interior locations into the single digits with clear skies, relatively calm winds, and 850 temperatures near -20 C. The NAM only has 850s around -15C early Tuesday morning, but instability snow squalls should limit any solar heating that could occur in the dawn and early morning hours: Wednesday morning looks plenty cold with 850mb temperatures around -17C, but of course the lack of snow cover in our region (and to the north) will limit the extremity of the cold. Looking at this map, however, I could definitely see stations in the farther suburbs, like DXR and SMQ, getting into the single digits. I think NYC will probably fall into the low-mid teens...if only we had snow cover: A rare occurence though, -20c is much more routine. What was the last -30c intrusion down to our latitude? January 2004? According to Plymouth reanalysis maps, 850s were around -25C in NYC metro during the heart of that outbreak....northern Vermont saw 850mb temperatures as cold as -35C, which is amazing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Don't look now, but if the GFS is right some very weak and transient high latitude support could team up with a west coast-rockies ridge to support the potential for something around the 9th and 10th of the month. A very small window for something, but something nevertheless. Worth almost nothing, but the DGEX has had a storm system at the end of it's runs (around 180 hrs) for the past few days and the GFS and Euro have had some weak signals around that time frame as well. Nothing to write home about yet, but worth watching especially in this boring pattern. It would be a very tight window -- the ridge over the west collapses rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 It's this energy, which swings down over the ridge through the Western Plains and then towards the Gulf Coast, that we need to watch. It is currently modeled to be timed well with a northern stream feature and a re-enforcing shot of cold air. If we can get this feature to amplify, things could get interesting. That Western CONUS ridge would certainly support some amplification if it is well modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 00z ECM @ 216 hours out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The NAM only has 850s around -15C early Tuesday morning, but instability snow squalls should limit any solar heating that could occur in the dawn and early morning hours: Wednesday morning looks plenty cold with 850mb temperatures around -17C, but of course the lack of snow cover in our region (and to the north) will limit the extremity of the cold. Looking at this map, however, I could definitely see stations in the farther suburbs, like DXR and SMQ, getting into the single digits. I think NYC will probably fall into the low-mid teens...if only we had snow cover: According to Plymouth reanalysis maps, 850s were around -25C in NYC metro during the heart of that outbreak....northern Vermont saw 850mb temperatures as cold as -35C, which is amazing: I was actually skiing up in Killington during that outbreak. It was not warm out. They actually started shutting down the lifts the last day we were there, and at the top of one of the mountains (where there is the big lodge) it was like -40F. We got a quick hot chocolate up there (after taking the gondola up), skied down, nearly froze to death, and got the hell out of there. I remember driving back to VA later that day, and us getting back to Charlottesville with it 65 degrees warmer than the top of that mountain and still cold enough to be snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Some of the warmer temperatures on Tuesday will come earlier in the day and possibly in the earlier afternoon. The NAM has slowed the arctic front so that on Tuesday between 09 and 15z, 850 temperatures are still between 12 and 16c. That could support temperatures in the mid or upper 20's. But with strong northwesterly winds, I think upper 20's is a better bet for an afternoon high than the NWS OKX 32 F. They may be going with an early morning high, too...the NAM has 12z Tuesday temperatures very near 30 F in NYC. I also agree about the low temperatures not being in the single digits in the city. It's a shame, but we can't hold this cold air at all. By early Wednesday morning the best cold air is already gone. But it will probably still be enough to get some interior locations into the single digits with clear skies, relatively calm winds, and 850 temperatures near -20 C. I was thinking NYC would have shot to get down to single digits Tuesday night. But with flow more NW instead out of the North, I don't think see we this full brunt of this artic airmass. I think it's possible early highs around 30 degrees on Tuesday. Then again sometime late on Wednesday, even though we might get off to a lower start in the morning. This would keep our departures from going below -10, both days. To add this the 6z NAM is warmer. On this run, 850mb temps don't go below -18C for anyone in this area. And warm up to around -14C by 12z Wed. It possible though, that its underestimating a cold a little bit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Don't look now, but if the GFS is right some very weak and transient high latitude support could team up with a west coast-rockies ridge to support the potential for something around the 9th and 10th of the month. A very small window for something, but something nevertheless. Worth almost nothing, but the DGEX has had a storm system at the end of it's runs (around 180 hrs) for the past few days and the GFS and Euro have had some weak signals around that time frame as well. Nothing to write home about yet, but worth watching especially in this boring pattern. It would be a very tight window -- the ridge over the west collapses rapidly. This is a longshot. But If we see that Iceland block trend stronger than this at 144hrs, and that ridge remain amplified over the West Coast, than we have a shot at a storm producing some appreciable snow during this 8-10th period: It's not that far off the from setup we saw a day or so prior, to Jan 26-27 storm last year. Although, we were also coming out a stronger -NAO. So I don't expect something nearly as big: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 At the very least, there is some potential between Jan 8-15 as the North Pacific retrogrades and we feel the lingering effects of the GWO orbit. Then it will be the West's turn as the RNA / -EPO pattern potentially sets up. Finally, we may see a classic La Niña pattern Jan 15-20 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 This is a longshot. But If we see that Iceland block trend stronger than this at 144hrs, and that ridge remain amplified over the West Coast, than we have a shot at a storm producing some appreciable snow during this 8-10th period: It's not that far off the from setup we saw a day or so prior, to Jan 26-27 storm last year. Although, we were also coming out a stronger -NAO. So I don't expect something nearly as big: Yeah I definitely agree...I thought it was important to note in my initial post that the window for something was very, very small. But it is definitely worth noticing in the pattern we've been in and it certainly caught my eye. Todays 12z GFS has trended faster and more progressive with the northern stream, as well as the ridge out west. So the shortwave essentially never has time to amplify and there is a clear disconnect with the northern stream shortwave over the Great Lakes. So the storm winds up way offshore. The 06z DGEX from this morning offered some more hope: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/f180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 The latest Canadian looks like a weaker and colder version of last nights 00z Euro. Similarly, it rapidly deepens the surface low as it heads north of New England's general latitude. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 so these snow showers make it to us? they are almost here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 so these snow showers make it to us? they are almost here SPC WRF says yes, at 02z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 SPC WRF says yes, at 02z tonight. Great, night time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Great, night time. Think of it like this. At least we dont have to worry about it having trouble sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 93-94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 so these snow showers make it to us? they are almost here Look at all that blue snow on radar. Too bad it means only snow flurries or snow showers for us NYC folks in the short term. But whose complaining it is better than nothing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 so these snow showers make it to us? they are almost here On and off flurries here for the past 2 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Euro so far looks flat and unorganized in a similar fashion to the GFS. The potential remains, though, you can see the northern stream is just slightly disconnected while the main shortwave is trailing too far back to the south and west. Plenty of time to watch this one on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Look at all that blue snow on radar. Too bad it means only snow flurries or snow showers for us NYC folks in the short term. But whose complaining it is better than nothing . Intellicast may be a bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 So at what point do people begin to throw in the towel with respect to this winter.. If something doesn't change by mid month or doesn't look promising in the near future in the models the weenie suicides will surely commence.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 On and off flurries here for the past 2 hours.. pics or it didnt happen, there is only room for one mt earthlight on this board lol j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 So at what point do people begin to throw in the towel with respect to this winter.. If something doesn't change by mid month or doesn't look promising in the near future in the models the weenie suicides will surely commence.. that time was weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 that time was weeks ago yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Euro so far looks flat and unorganized in a similar fashion to the GFS. The potential remains, though, you can see the northern stream is just slightly disconnected while the main shortwave is trailing too far back to the south and west. Plenty of time to watch this one on the guidance. this run is suspect because it holds a cutoff low in texas and then it drifts over to Louisiana and waits for the next northern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 A cursory glance seems to indicate to me that KJRB tends to run warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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