TheTrials Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 CMC shows nearly .50" of precip for LI and .30"-.40" for NYC. LOL. Terrible model. Given that central long island only trails slightly behind mt earthlight with accumulations the last three winters, I bet it verifies and they get a foot while the rest of us drool over our high cirrus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 from DT's FB page. "Wxrisk.com *** COMMENT ON 12Z EUROPEAN *** Boy this run really Blows off that off shore Low into a BIG deal... at 96 to 108 hrs... its 250 miles too far to the east but it sure is impressive looking" Boat trip?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 from DT's FB page. "Wxrisk.com *** COMMENT ON 12Z EUROPEAN *** Boy this run really Blows off that off shore Low into a BIG deal... at 96 to 108 hrs... its 250 miles too far to the east but it sure is impressive looking" Boat trip?! AG3 likes to fish, maybe he can get up a boat to go that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Looks like the euro ensembles break down the vortex in the mid range but then develops a negative pna with a negative epo. It looks like a gradient pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 There might be a small window for sound effect snow showers on Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 There might be a small window for sound effect snow showers on Wednesday morning. Yep. All the models show snow showers from the lakes reaching the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yep. All the models show snow showers from the lakes reaching the coast. The lakes arent the sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 HM This is a pattern change and the source of the change comes 1/6-1/10. The stream of lows coming off Asia will continue to pull the Alaskan Vortex a little bit more west each time, until ultimately a classic La Nina pattern sets up mid-month. Serious Pacific Lows / cold air is possible for the Northwest during this time. A -EPO / gradient pattern will possibly setup thereafter, too, giving New England a helluva better pattern than the one we've got now. All pattern recognition techniques / analogs had this idea of a -EPO / RNA mid-month leading to a -NAO ~ January 20th. We'll see about that. But in terms of the Pacific, it is legitimate. And wouldn't you know it, it has a lot to do with the stratospheric warming everyone was ripping apart as useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 GFS is frigid from January 10th onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 GFS again showing a nice gradient pattern setting up in the mid-long range. Cold pours down from canada, and it seems like theres plenty of it. Could get a nice overrunning event, but for now, its just nice to see the 0z GFS not showing a big time torch in days 7+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 GFS again showing a nice gradient pattern setting up in the mid-long range. Cold pours down from canada, and it seems like theres plenty of it. Could get a nice overrunning event, but for now, its just nice to see the 0z GFS not showing a big time torch in days 7+ It looks like a -EPO,-PNA and -NAO pattern on the GFS. ( HM was talking about this ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 HM HM, the voice of reason with true expertise in whats REALLY happening. We are about 10 official days into winter folks. Below zero weather with a 100 inches of snow hasn't fallen yet so there for Winter fail. Worst winter evah! Blah blah blah. People get a grip! Oh and happy new year everybody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 HM, the voice of reason with true expertise in whats REALLY happening. We are about 10 official days into winter folks. Below zero weather with a 100 inches of snow hasn't fallen yet so there for Winter fail. Worst winter evah! Blah blah blah. People get a grip! Oh and happy new year everybody! I just don't get why some people already threw in the towel for this winter. Doesn't make sense at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 GFS again showing a nice gradient pattern setting up in the mid-long range. Cold pours down from canada, and it seems like theres plenty of it. Could get a nice overrunning event, but for now, its just nice to see the 0z GFS not showing a big time torch in days 7+ No torch??? How could this be? Aren't every model runs set in stone? Damnit I was getting my sun tan lotion and beach towel ready. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 No torch??? How could this be? Aren't every model runs set in stone? Damnit I was getting my sun tan lotion and beach towel ready. Oh well. It only shows 1-2 days of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 It looks like a -EPO,-PNA and -NAO pattern on the GFS. ( HM was talking about this ) I guess 2/3 ain't bad. The pv is still spinning up in the Davis straights. Pretty Positive +nao throughout the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I guess 2/3 ain't bad. The pv is still spinning up in the Davis straights. Pretty Positive +nao throughout the run. The NAO charts show it being positive. GFS has a nice look to it in the mid to long range. Way different than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 It only shows 1-2 days of warmth. Just because you are just north of the 850 mb zero degrees Celsius line doesn't necessarily mean it is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Just because you are just north of the 850 mb zero degrees Celsius line doesn't necessarily mean it is cold. So you're telling me the GFS isn't cold in the mid to long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 So you're telling me the GFS isn't cold in the mid to long range? I really define cold as basically for us being colder than minus ten degrees Celsius when it comes to 850 mb temperatures. If the GFS is off by a little in that time range, then for us it would be near seasonal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I really define cold as basically for us being colder than minus ten degrees Celsius when it comes to 850 mb temperatures. If the GFS is off by a little in that time range, then for us it would be near seasonal temperatures. Gotcha. At least this run wasn't a blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I guess 2/3 ain't bad. The pv is still spinning up in the Davis straights. Pretty Positive +nao throughout the run. There was a raging +NAO all winter of 1993-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The NAO charts show it being positive. GFS has a nice look to it in the mid to long range. Way different than the previous run. 183: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F31%2F2011+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=183&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M 240: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F31%2F2011+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=240&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M 300: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F31%2F2011+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=300&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M 360 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F31%2F2011+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=360&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Please show me a -nao anywhere on these H5 charts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 There was a raging +NAO all winter of 1993-94. I'm not debating synoptic set ups, but anthony said there was a -nao showing up. I don't see it. (ps, I was 7yrs old, best school/ice days here in Philly!) and thank the lord for wood burning stoves :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 183: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M 240: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M 300: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M 360 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Please show me a -nao anywhere on these H5 charts... You're right. The cold air is from the -EPO in the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 You're right. The cold air is from the -EPO in the mid to long range. Welcome to 1993-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Welcome to 1993-94. I will gladly take that pattern in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I just don't get why some people already threw in the towel for this winter. Doesn't make sense at all. Because, the simple reason, everyone wants to get the KU or another repeat of 2009-2010-2010-2011; two of the greatest winter seasons that one could ask for. Let's face it, I had a combined total of 122" for those two seasons, which is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Welcome to 1993-94. I don't think that rremendous cold January 1994 is going to be here; but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Some re-enforcing signs of hope from HM tonight! Gotta love it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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