ag3 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 also some really nice ridging bulding into alaska this is all way far out so its very smoothed, but looks fine after that mini se ridge noreaster27 was crying about WillORH agrees with this assessment as well. Good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 WillORH agrees with this assessment as well. Good job. There is still a huge vortex over Baffin Island in the LR EC ensembles so even with a PAC shift, it would probably favor cold more in the northern tier with the -EPO/+NAO look...esp upper plains....but given the time range, I agree that jumping on any pattern change yet would be premature. I think the tendency for ensembles to rush such things makes me think we'll make it to Jan 15th with the current regime in the high latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Upton is a joke IMO, and they were +4 daytime highs for me today. That makes them a joke? BTW, Upton's forecast highs this morning for NYC metro were mid 30's and that's where temps wound up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 GEFS MJO is moving along into a favorable state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 GEFS MJO is moving along into a favorable state. Ehhh... The amplitude of the wave concerns me. It's hovering along the edge of the COD. I'd like to see it amplify out towards phase 7,8,1 before getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 That makes them a joke? BTW, Upton's forecast highs this morning for NYC metro were mid 30's and that's where temps wound up. NWS will ALWAYS go toward climo more than 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 Ehhh... The amplitude of the wave concerns me. It's hovering along the edge of the COD. I'd like to see it amplify out towards phase 7,8,1 before getting excited. What's even funnier is that it's in phase 8 for maybe a day and a half. It speeds through there like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 And 00z looks ugly after our nice and dry cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 And 00z looks ugly after our nice and dry cold shot. It's pretty horrid with a dominant +EPO and torched CONUS until the AK block comes in at, oh, 336...Looks as we might be seeing a torch pattern with no high-latitude blocking and a strong trough building into CA/Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 It's pretty horrid with a dominant +EPO and torched CONUS until the AK block comes in at, oh, 336...Looks as we might be seeing a torch pattern with no high-latitude blocking and a strong trough building into CA/Southwest. The GFS is cold for much of the run. -20c 850s come back at the end. Still no more than snow showers showing up, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The GFS is cold for much of the run. -20c 850s come back at the end. Still no more than snow showers showing up, though. For some reason I am not seeing this as cold.. This looks pretty close to what the ECM showed at 12 Z At the end of the run yes it seems to want to bring colder air back in but its always the long range ...and keep in mind the GFS has a cold bias in the long range as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The GFS is cold for much of the run. -20c 850s come back at the end. Still no more than snow showers showing up, though. It's not cold in the part of the run that matters, which is the Day 6-10 showing what happens after the PNA induced cold shot we are definitely getting. It's very mild at that timeframe with a death vortex over AK and a trough digging into the west. That is the consensus forecast with the 12z Euro and most of the ensembles agreeing. That AK block that it continually shows in the LR hasn't been getting any closer the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 It's not cold in the part of the run that matters, which is the Day 6-10 showing what happens after the PNA induced cold shot we are definitely getting. It's very mild at that timeframe with a death vortex over AK and a trough digging into the west. That is the consensus forecast with the 12z Euro and most of the ensembles agreeing. That AK block that it continually shows in the LR hasn't been getting any closer the past few days. If that stretch is short-lived, though, as the GFS is are showing, we could still get wintry weather this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 For some reason I am not seeing this as cold.. This looks pretty close to what the ECM showed at 12 Z At the end of the run yes it seems to want to bring colder air back in but its always the long range ...and keep in mind the GFS has a cold bias in the long range as well... But it could also get better. Remember that we are heading into the most wintry part of the year traditionally. Plus, we knew it could be a step down to what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Probably transient warm and cold shots, but instead of seasonable cold shots, we get some very strong cold shots. That alone will make this better than 2001-2002, at least there is cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Up to 40 in the park at this hour. Temps have been rising since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 That makes them a joke? BTW, Upton's forecast highs this morning for NYC metro were mid 30's and that's where temps wound up. It certainly doesn't help their case. Either they are way to early or way to late, for example they were bullish on the oct 29th event, then went way overboard with 6-10" in NYC. They always seem to be off in something regardless of the season or situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 It's pretty horrid with a dominant +EPO and torched CONUS until the AK block comes in at, oh, 336...Looks as we might be seeing a torch pattern with no high-latitude blocking and a strong trough building into CA/Southwest. 336 hr is so reliable. It will change again,don't worry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 It certainly doesn't help their case. Either they are way to early or way to late, for example they were bullish on the oct 29th event, then went way overboard with 6-10" in NYC. They always seem to be off in something regardless of the season or situation. It seems like Mt holly and most of the offices do the same,must be a fed thing...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 It certainly doesn't help their case. Either they are way to early or way to late, for example they were bullish on the oct 29th event, then went way overboard with 6-10" in NYC. They always seem to be off in something regardless of the season or situation. I don't mean to be an apologist for Upton. However, the 10/29 event was exceptionally difficult to forecast snowfall amounts, particularly on the fringe of snow versus rain, which is precisely where NYC sat. A couple of miles (literally) to the west and northwest of NYC certainly received 6" to 10"+ snowfall amounts. Can't fault Upton for that one at all. On balance, I think they do an excellent job, and I would rank their accuracy higher than many (most?) private forecasting concerns which frequently go for the extreme, hype, or to be the first to report something, all at the expense of accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 It seems like Mt holly and most of the offices do the same,must be a fed thing...lol. Mt Holly seems more on top of things if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I personally favor Mt. Holly over Upton. The AFD are usually more detailed and updated more frequently. With that being said they have had there share of screw ups. For the February 5-6 2010 storm that burried DC, I only received virga with a WSW for 4-8". Forecasting that sharp cutoff wasn't easy, but I remeber the NAM catching on early and not wavering. They decided to go with the Euro fail. You win some you lose some. Btw, this probably belongs in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I personally favor Mt. Holly over Upton. The AFD are usually more detailed and updated more frequently. With that being said they have had there share of screw ups. For the February 5-6 2010 storm that burried DC, I only received virga with a WSW for 4-8". Forecasting that sharp cutoff wasn't easy, but I remeber the NAM catching on early and not wavering. They decided to go with the Euro fail. You win some you lose some. Btw, this probably belongs in the banter thread. I read both OKX and PHI AFDs each morning. I just have to say that Walt Drag writes the most engaging AFDs. The Upton guys write their AFDs well, but are right to the point. I want to be able to walk away intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Long range GFS has a gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Long range GFS has a gradient pattern. By long range you mean after the cutter and hr 384? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 By long range you mean after the cutter and hr 384? Around 220 onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Around 220 onward. Wouldn't really call that a gradient pattern, we are very warm after the arctic blast this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Wouldn't really call that a gradient pattern, we are very warm after the arctic blast this week. No we are not. But still, the pattern isn't favorable at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 lol, cmc with its norlun for William Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 lol, cmc with its norlun for William CMC shows nearly .50" of precip for LI and .30"-.40" for NYC. LOL. Terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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