NYC/Tri-State Area: Stumbling into January Disco

[TheTrials]

good old P004

[stormspotterlive]

Anyone wanting to know about the euro. it just made a major change at hour 90 with the Pacific low it went from 968 on 00z to just about non existent this run. Could promote a shift west with the ridge in future runs.

[Analog96]

SW flow increases this evening. We might see our highs late.

With nearly overcast skies?

[MJO812]

12z Euro is slightly west with the storm but it is no big deal.

The radar shows some snow showers heading this way. Lets see if it makes it over the mountains.

[ag3]

12z Euro is slightly west with the storm but it is no big deal.

The radar shows some snow showers heading this way. Lets see if it makes it over the mountains.

Time to move on with the day 4-5 storm.

Focus goes on another long shot for day 6-7. The GGEM brushes the area and a few gefs members have the shortwave developing as well.

[Analog96]

12z Euro is slightly west with the storm but it is no big deal.

The radar shows some snow showers heading this way. Lets see if it makes it over the mountains.

I am a bit interested in the activity down by Harrisburg. Obs say it IS reaching the ground, and there aren't too many mountains between here and there.

[NorEaster27]

After next weeks cold shot, looks like we warm up with some rain ahead of the next cold front. With no blocking, even a great +PNA can not help.

[ag3]

I am a bit interested in the activity down by Harrisburg. Obs say it IS reaching the ground, and there aren't too many mountains between here and there.

Its also flurrying in and around the DC area.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

I am a bit interested in the activity down by Harrisburg. Obs say it IS reaching the ground, and there aren't too many mountains between here and there.

Light snow falling down in the Baltimore-DC corridor right now it appears too.

[MJO812]

After next weeks cold shot, looks like we warm up with some rain ahead of the next cold front. With no blocking, even a great +PNA can not help.

GFS develops a gradient pattern in the mid to long range.

[NYCSuburbs]

Time to move on with the day 4-5 storm.

Focus goes on another long shot for day 6-7. The GGEM brushes the area and a few gefs members have the shortwave developing as well.

That one's going to be difficult to get snow from as well. Besides the fact that the less reliable models are showing this potential, there's nothing to hold the cold in place with the progressive pattern, and that ridge in the west looks like it's about to spread back east. Some scattered snow showers are possible at best, but more than that, if at all, isn't so likely in my opinion.

[ag3]

That one's going to be difficult to get snow from as well. Besides the fact that the less reliable models are showing this potential, there's nothing to hold the cold in place with the progressive pattern, and that ridge in the west looks like it's about to spread back east. Some scattered snow showers are possible at best, but more than that, if at all, isn't so likely in my opinion.

Euro has the shortwave as well at H5.

There would be plenty of cold air for that one, if it were to develop. Not a big threat though. At most it could be a brush with our area (1"-2" type deal) and better for the Cape area.

[ravensrule]

Light snow falling down in the Baltimore-DC corridor right now it appears too.

We have light snow here north of Baltimore.

[Analog96]

That one's going to be difficult to get snow from as well. Besides the fact that the less reliable models are showing this potential, there's nothing to hold the cold in place with the progressive pattern, and that ridge in the west looks like it's about to spread back east. Some scattered snow showers are possible at best, but more than that, if at all, isn't so likely in my opinion.

VERY unlikely, BUT if it did pop a coastal, as long as the track is offshore and the winds don't go East, we could stay snow. There is enough cold air for that. But until I see good model agreement on a storm at this range, I would be VERY cautious in calling for anything for now.

[NYCSuburbs]

Euro has the shortwave as well at H5.

There would be plenty of cold air for that one, if it were to develop. Not a big threat though. At most it could be a brush with our area (1"-2" type deal) and better for the Cape area.

That would be decent at this point too... it's clear just how bad this pattern is considering that everyone's getting excited about scattered flurries in Pennsylvania and Maryland. Some snow showers could perhaps be possible with that shortwave, but right now it's looking like there might be a better risk of snow showers with the trough moving in on Monday/Tuesday.

[NYCSuburbs]

VERY unlikely, BUT if it did pop a coastal, as long as the track is offshore and the winds don't go East, we could stay snow. There is enough cold air for that. But until I see good model agreement on a storm at this range, I would be VERY cautious in calling for anything for now.

Agreed about that, there's always that small possibility that a few snow showers move through but otherwise I'd say chances for a coastal out of that one are very low, if not zero. With this pattern, going initially with a no snow forecast would have a better chance of verifying than starting out with expecting snow.

[Analog96]

That would be decent at this point too... it's clear just how bad this pattern is considering that everyone's getting excited about scattered flurries in Pennsylvania and Maryland. Some snow showers could perhaps be possible with that shortwave, but right now it's looking like there might be a better risk of snow showers with the trough moving in on Monday/Tuesday.

There's more likely to be precipitation with Sat AM system than this one. However, that might not be all snow....

[Analog96]

Agreed about that, there's always that small possibility that a few snow showers move through but otherwise I'd say chances for a coastal out of that one are very low, if not zero. With this pattern, going initially with a no snow forecast would have a better chance of verifying than starting out with expecting snow.

NEVER EVER say zero! But, like you said, the chances of a big snowstorm are slim to none. I like Tue AM for some snow squalls! MAYBE a minor accumulation?!

[pazzo83]

In terms of the months DJF, what is the latest NYC has recorded its first measurable snowfall (i.e. trace or greater)?

[NYCSuburbs]

NEVER EVER say zero! But, like you said, the chances of a big snowstorm are slim to none. I like Tue AM for some snow squalls! MAYBE a minor accumulation?!

We can always hope... the GFS does show scattered precip on Monday night with a lot of lake effect snow in the Great Lakes region, perhaps a few isolated squalls could make it over the mountains and down to I-95.

[Analog96]

We can always hope... the GFS does show scattered precip on Monday night with a lot of lake effect snow in the Great Lakes region, perhaps a few isolated squalls could make it over the mountains and down to I-95.

I like the setup. Generally, when you have very steep lapse rates, snow showers and squalls do tend to overperform.

[Thunderdude]

Cold spell may possibly over perform. Even today, it's only 33 right now, the forecast was 40. Isn't the city still below freezing as of noon too. Highs may very well be as low as the low 20s in the area, lows may struggle to fall too low due to the northwest winds but I could see them fall as low as the upper single digits to around 10F just outside the city.

I think the GFS usually over plays the cold air. Today temps are still just near freezing as of 2 pm. In the mid range the GFS like overplay the cold arctic air. I say temps will drop in the teen in most location to near 20 F in the city but well inland could drop in the 5-10 F. Highs will probably remain below freezing for a day. If we could get a blocking than I would take the cold air but no blocking over the Atlantic means wastefully cold air with little snow to talk about it. When the storms do come no blocking will allow to take the classic snow track and the cold air will moderate. I will be happy to even at this point to at least see snow flurries out of it where it is possible clipper could give some light snows in the area.

[Analog96]

I think the GFS usually over plays the cold air. Today temps are still just near freezing as of 2 pm. In the mid range the GFS like overplay the cold arctic air. I say temps will drop in the teen in most location to near 20 F in the city but well inland could drop in the 5-10 F. Highs will probably remain below freezing for a day. If we could get a blocking than I would take the cold air but no blocking over the Atlantic means wastefully cold air with little snow to talk about it. When the storms do come no blocking will allow to take the classic snow track and the cold air will moderate. I will be happy to even at this point to at least see snow flurries out of it where it is possible clipper could give some light snows in the area.

So you think we're going to get near freezing with -20C 850 temps?

[NorEaster27]

it's a wretched pattern, no point in spinning it.

[BxEngine]

it's a wretched pattern, no point in spinning it.

Theres a banter thread (even in the other subforums you ctrl+v in), please use it.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z Euro is nothing like the 12z GFS. SE ridge dominates the pattern days 7-10. It does have a trough progessing eastward late in the period.

[ag3]

Highs and lows according to GFS for the cold snap:

Tuesday: High of 26 and dropping during the day

Wednesday: High of 21-23 and low of 13 degrees

[Analog96]

The 12z Euro is nothing like the 12z GFS. SE ridge dominates the pattern days 7-10. It does have a trough progessing eastward late in the period.

That's also not like any other ECMWF runs of late. I would take that with a very large grain of salt.

[TheTrials]

That's also not like any other ECMWF runs of late. I would take that with a very large grain of salt.

[nzucker]

That's also not like any other ECMWF runs of late. I would take that with a very large grain of salt.

The 0z ECM also had a large SE ridge in the longer range: