psv88 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 0z euro ensemble mean has a low offshore on the 5th. How are you losing to Blizz? Why aren't you campaigning?!?! Come on people vote and represent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Pattern hasn't budged since September 1st..4 months and counting..longest sustanied pattern I have ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 With the Weekend storm, tracking so far north now, looks like temps will be mild and in the 50's for the coast. Tomorrow will get close to 50 and Saturday looks like a decent chance to get into the 50's and perhaps to the mid 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 NAO heading negative by mid month and AO going down. Finally real cold being discharged. It's early in the season, lots of winter to go. January will certainly be nothing like December that's for sure. Im finally liking what I'm seeing and I think all snow weenies will be very satisfied before January ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The most exciting development for me on the medium range models is the lack of a se ridge. That needed to go away before we saw any winter. Next step is to get the pv out of Alaska. Ohh, vote for woty! http://www.americanw...eenie-hof-vote/ It's about time that the SE ridge is finally gone for an extended period of time (extended meaning more than 1 day in this case), considering that it's been there almost endlessly since the October snowstorm. With the SE ridge partially taken care of though, there's still so many other factors going against us that it's hard for me to imagine us getting much, if any snow through the middle of January as well before any pattern change potential becomes more realistic. By now I'd gladly take a late January 07-type clipper since that would at least bring some snow instead of the mild/wet to cold/dry pattern we're now in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 With the Weekend storm, tracking so far north now, looks like temps will be mild and in the 50's for the coast. Tomorrow will get close to 50 and Saturday looks like a decent chance to get into the 50's and perhaps to the mid 50's. If both days get into the 50s, that would be 16 days this month where the high was at 50 or greater. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 If both days get into the 50s, that would be 16 days this month where the high was at 50 or greater. Crazy. Keep it coming. Again, with no snow, let it torch. Hawaii will be great when that arctic blast hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 heads up at 144 hours gfs big time race here between the incoming vort and the departing vort to see if heights can recover in time to let this thing bite its trying BIG TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Keep it coming. Again, with no snow, let it torch. Hawaii will be great when that arctic blast hits I'm with you. I want snow & cold or 70s. Cold and dry is crap (and a waste, frankly). If I have to deal with walking to work when it's 20F out there better damn well be snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Gonna be close..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Keep it coming. Again, with no snow, let it torch. Hawaii will be great when that arctic blast hits Any Island in particular or island hopping when there? Enjoy your trip. I've been lucky to be able to go to Maui the past 2 years & have done the Big Island (Hawaii) years earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Probably not worth too much, but placing the last 4 runs side by side (12z, 6z, 0z, 18z), the trough trended more amplified and is digging further south. It's not enough to bring back the ECM fantasy blizzard, but I thought it'd be interesting to note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Keep it coming. Again, with no snow, let it torch. Hawaii will be great when that arctic blast hits Origionally I was pissed that I'll be in the Bahamas next week while we still had the snow threat, but now that its gone I'll be happy to miss the Artic blast. The 12z GFS has sped up by about 6 hours. It brings down the Artic air faster than 6z. At 126hr on 6z -20 850's only stretched down to northern NE. On 12z for the same time period (120hr) they make it all the way down to our far NW zones. 6z 12z Height of the cold blast is hrs 126-129 on 12z. -20 850's make it all the way to Staten Island This is a significantly colder run than 6z. On 6z, -20 850's only touch Sussex/Orange Counties before quickly retreating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 hour 168...closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Gonna be close..... Looks like no room to amplify. This shortwave needs to be watched though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The flow is too progressive, SW gets shunted eastward by the ridge progressing eastward. That shortwave is gonna pop, but well offshore and way too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Any Island in particular or island hopping when there? Enjoy your trip. I've been lucky to be able to go to Maui the past 2 years & have done the Big Island (Hawaii) years earlier. Thanks, going to Maui. Never been further west than idaho before or seen the pacific. Looking forward to the getaway, although my fiance is not coming since im going with my father, so shes ticked. oh well. I hope to return just in time for the big one on january 9th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 If we only had the smallest amount of blocking.... That trough out in the Pacific helps to really amplify the trough out west. Just like the last threat that fizzled out, it would need to be a perfect combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 If we only had the smallest amount of blocking.... That trough out in the Pacific helps to really amplify the through out west. Just like the last threat that fizzled out, it would need to be a perfect combo. Yea completely agree. Some previous runs of the GFS looked better overall, especially with some well timed shortwaves on the heels of some lows bombing well north and east of the area, acting as a pseudo block. If we can get some ridging into greenland and one of these shortwaves to bomb and slow the pattern down just a bit, then one of these shortwaves is bound to drop into the trough and amplify. As is, the pattern remains to progressive and there is nothing to stop the ridge from progressing east and preventing amplification. I am a lot less encouraged by this run of the gfs as opposed to previous ones. No real signs of high latitude blocking which I feel were starting to show on previous runs. And to boot as a result the ridge progresses east and we warm again after the cold period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Cold spell may possibly over perform. Even today, it's only 33 right now, the forecast was 40. Isn't the city still below freezing as of noon too. Highs may very well be as low as the low 20s in the area, lows may struggle to fall too low due to the northwest winds but I could see them fall as low as the upper single digits to around 10F just outside the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The RH field on the gfs is juicy when the arctic air comes down. Maybe some squalls with the arctic front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Cold spell may possibly over perform. Even today, it's only 33 right now, the forecast was 40. Isn't the city still below freezing as of noon too. Highs may very well be as low as the low 20s in the area, lows may struggle to fall too low due to the northwest winds but I could see them fall as low as the upper single digits to around 10F just outside the city. Totally agree, with a strong +PNA ridge out west and no blocking, were in store for fridgid but dry weather. Without something in place to slow down the flow, we'll need a virtually perfect timed shortwave to get a storm up this way. I'm encouraged by this run of the GFS though, I think we'll have to sacrafice a few good shortwaves to break the pattern but overall things are looking up. The SE ridge is non-existent thru most of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 12z gefs shows a low just offshore for Jan 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The RH field on the gfs is juicy when the arctic air comes down. Maybe some squalls with the arctic front? Actually looks like a good setup for squalls on Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The RH field on the gfs is juicy when the arctic air comes down. Maybe some squalls with the arctic front? The arctic front is also pretty juicy on the Canadian. The Canadian also sustains this cold shot better than the GFS through hr. 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 12z gefs shows a low just offshore for Jan 5th. What do temps looks like then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Canadain now try's to pop the storm at the same time GFS ensembles have gotten very interesting. Some GFS ensemles now hint at the storm 2 do what the canadain has 1 of them that does turns it in to the storm and is a minor hit with heaviest missing. and even another one has the storm but ots. Very interested to see what the euro. does even though I thought this was over and still do I think this maybe interesting to watch still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Cold spell may possibly over perform. Even today, it's only 33 right now, the forecast was 40. Isn't the city still below freezing as of noon too. Highs may very well be as low as the low 20s in the area, lows may struggle to fall too low due to the northwest winds but I could see them fall as low as the upper single digits to around 10F just outside the city. SW flow increases this evening. We might see our highs late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Actually looks like a good setup for squalls on Tue. Maybe a quick inch or two if we are lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 12z gefs shows a low just offshore for Jan 5th. It also shows the cold air disappearing faster than the snow rates Earthlight received on Boxing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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