earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 The winds could keep things from getting overly cold tonight, but I would think many areas are going to drop into the low 20's tonight. It will probably be nearly as cold as that night a few weeks ago. 850 temperatures are near or below -10 C for many areas. But notice how the NAM still has 10-15kt winds at 06z. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_18z/f12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 18z gfs much more impressive with the short wave entering the trough. I guess we should keep an eye on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Big time changes aloft on the 18z GFS but it's not quite there yet. It definitely went away from the big trough taking over the entire flow at 120 hours...and is much closer to amplifying a big shortwave which dives south from North-Central Canada. But the entire thing is still incredibly suppressed...that first trough really kills the entire thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Big time changes aloft on the 18z GFS but it's not quite there yet. It definitely went away from the big trough taking over the entire flow at 120 hours...and is much closer to amplifying a big shortwave which dives south from North-Central Canada. But the entire thing is still incredibly suppressed...that first trough really kills the entire thing. we need another piece of energy, the pac jet won't do it on its own the big euro and cmc solutions involved several pieces of energy with the ggem actually getting the arctic jet involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It gets really cold though. -20 850's dropping down Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Quite frankly I don't want to see a big hit on the GFS this far out anyway. I'll gladly take baby steps for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 there is also always the possibility the lead vort isn't nearly as strong as advertised and doesnt muck up the whole setup. Still, we are facing a very low probability of getting something meaningful out of this with the NAO as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 AND THEN THERE IS HOUR 186-204, LOLZ January 2005 twin right there, cape cod would get blitzed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It gets really cold though. -20 850's dropping down Tuesday night. It may or may not be this storm, but I would think that with such strong cold air coming in, perhaps we'd have a better chance for snow after the Jan 3-5 time frame if some of that cold air is left over when the next system approaches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 this is what we need too bad its at the end of the ensembles, but this is why john was alluding to earlier, getting the height anomolies east of greenland to spread west and over take the davis strait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 this is a great pattern for the whole east coast from DC to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 the gfs is now getting the first trough out of the way faster, which allows the backside energy to drop down and amplifiy more. Even still, we are gonna need more digging and more amplification to get a neg tilited trough and a storm closer to the coast. Not a bad run for those desperate for flakes, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 winter is coming. This next week is already a nice change to what we have seen with clipper type lows and real cold progged to come in. Combine that with continued modeled storminess on gfs and euro as well as the true signs of high latitude blocking on the horizon and we should all be much happier by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 this is a great pattern for the whole east coast from DC to Maine This is all a step in the right direction, January especially the second half may prove to be very cold and stormy. Notice the PV Is smashed to pieces at the end of the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 the gfs is now getting the first trough out of the way faster, which allows the backside energy to drop down and amplifiy more. Even still, we are gonna need more digging and more amplification to get a neg tilited trough and a storm closer to the coast. Not a bad run for those desperate for flakes, lol Look at that PNA ridge in the west, it's going to get downright cold come next week and if the ensembles are right in the long range destroying the vortex over Greenland, January may prove to be exciting for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 after cold and dry couple days....this shortwave digs a bit but too late and doesnt get up the coast, instead it slides offshore. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 All the models don't show anything for next week. Just cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 well after the 00zs you can pretty much write this one off. This huge storm was fun while it lasted on the euro for a few runs but the reality is it will just be very cold and dry. There is nothing to slow down and amplify these troughs unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 well after the 00zs you can pretty much write this one off. This huge storm was fun while it lasted on the euro for a few runs but the reality is it will just be very cold and dry. There is nothing to slow down and amplify these troughs unfortunately. Lack of blocking really ruined it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Just wasteful cold air coming in and no block will mean no snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Alright at 120 hrs the temperatures are as follows.. inland 20s along coast 30-35.. at 132 overnight lows teens inland 20s along coast. From 120-132 snowshowers over WV western NY into Western NE @ 120 ..126 snowshowers same region and now an area of moisture just off the NJ coast.. 132 snowshowers same region and a more broad area of moisture off the coast of Hatteras N to off the Jersey coast..138 hrs more broad area of precipitation same area from Hatteras brushing CAPE COD.. 144 same scenario.. Temps single digits to 20s depending where in the NE.. 144 sub zero lows to teens majority of the region.. 150 large area of moisture just off the east coast.. temps sub zero majority of the western side of the NE from about NNY NE ..teens elsewhere.. 156 same story on the precipitation shield that is just east of the region..temps same as prior just sub zero readings in NNY a bit further south then prior 150.. 162 subzero highs in isolated locales in the NE with teens to twenties elsewheres..Same scenario still with the moisture.. Overnight lows for 162-168 subzero to teens again. Again moisture shield still positioned just off the coast..In my honest opinion this is further west then 12 Z and 00z last night.. Going to add to this at 192 there is a low off the SE coast..it is also starting to move a bit north at 198 hrs.. Still the same region at 204..at 210 it is a pretty sizeable low but what happens is that ridge is pushing towards the east.. so what happens is that ridge pushes the storm essentially due east. If it was not for that ridge pushing in that storm would probably be coming up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Just wasteful cold air coming in and no block will mean no snowstorms. I personally am very happy with the upcoming frigid air. I don't need snowstorms to satisfy my winter cravings. Just walking into buildings and houses with full-fledged heating after venturing out in the frigid air is quite an exciting experience for me to feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 forecasted highs in the 20's might be generous on Tues and Wed.. Generally, when 850's are in that -20C --> -22C range, I woudn't even expect we get out of the teens for highs... we generally don't see airmasses much colder than this... if the models hold onto this same thinking, wouldn't be surprised if temps keep being tweaked downward during the next couple of days... Only thing against this thinking is that the heart of the cold air is Tuesday night and comes in and out pretty quick. Temps on Tuesday may actually fall during the daytime.. wouldn't be surprised at all if our high temps occurred at midnight on Tuesday. Thank goodness this only lasts 2 days. I'd kill myself. I'll be dressed in about 15 layers in order to keep myself from whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 forecasted highs in the 20's might be generous on Tues and Wed.. Generally, when 850's are in that -20C --> -22C range, I woudn't even expect we get out of the teens for highs... we generally don't see airmasses much colder than this... if the models hold onto this same thinking, wouldn't be surprised if temps keep being tweaked downward during the next couple of days... Only thing against this thinking is that the heart of the cold air is Tuesday night and comes in and out pretty quick. Temps on Tuesday may actually fall during the daytime.. wouldn't be surprised at all if our high temps occurred at midnight on Tuesday. Thank goodness this only lasts 2 days. I'd kill myself. I'll be dressed in about 15 layers in order to keep myself from whining. Yeah, it probably the coldest air of the season. But it doesn't last more than 2 or 3 days. We still have no -AO or -NAO to lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yeah, it probably the coldest air of the season. But it doesn't last more than 2 or 3 days. We still have no -AO or -NAO to lock it in. Even if we did it would still moderate fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Obs: 25 and cold. Partly Cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Very excited to see the first signs of high lattitude blocking towards mid-month. Fortunatly the latest NAO progs are for a neutral or slightly negative NAO late in the forecast period. Unfortunatly, the ECMWF has backed off its earlier forecasts and now calls for the NAO to become highly positive again after a temporary dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Very excited to see the first signs of high lattitude blocking towards mid-month. Fortunatly the latest NAO progs are for a neutral or slightly negative NAO late in the forecast period. Unfortunatly, the ECMWF has backed off its earlier forecasts and now calls for the NAO to become highly positive again after a temporary dip. LOL, its wash rinse repeat around here. These NAO charts are mediocre at best, including the ones from Raleigh WX. Put them down and analyze the 500mb maps, and if you don't know how to do that ask, and we will tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The most exciting development for me on the medium range models is the lack of a se ridge. That needed to go away before we saw any winter. Next step is to get the pv out of Alaska. Ohh, vote for woty! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31433-the-9th-annual-weenie-of-the-year-final-4-and-weenie-hof-vote/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 0z euro ensemble mean has a low offshore on the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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