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12Z Model Thread


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there is much yet be determined obviously. many more runs to nail this down (and for JI to go bipolar with each one)...lots of possibilities which makes it all the more interesting. just saw this from HPC from their final EFD:

THE 12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS A DISCONCERTING ARRAY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMESFOR THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE NATION DURING THIS MEDIUM RANGEPERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THE LATEST GEFS MEAN HAS NOT TRENDED MUCHFROM THE 06Z RUN...WHICH INFORMED MUCH OF THE UPDATE PACKAGE. THEDETERMINISTIC GFS HAS GONE FLATTER WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST WAVE DAY 6...WITH THE GEFS MEAN SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE...ENOUGH TO THREATEN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SNOW. THE GEM GLOBAL HAS TRENDED CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE DAY 6 SYSTEM...BRINGING SNOW BACK TO INTERSTATE 95 FROM RICHMOND NORTHWARD. THE UKMET REMAINS ON ITS OWN WITH SHOWING ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC STATES DAYS 5 AND 6TO BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION. THE LESSON WITH THIS MOSTRECENT COMPLEX AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MIDWEST AND EAST WAS TO GOBETWEEN THE EXTREME SOLUTIONS...WHICH THE UPDATE BLEND ACCOMPLISHED. FOR THIS REASON...NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THEFINAL ISSUANCE.

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