earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This run of the ECMWF is significantly more favorable aloft at 108 hrs compared to 120 hours at 00z last night, that's a tremendous jump back towards a more phased solution aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z ukie is a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z ukie is a big hit You got any of the panels before that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You got any of the panels before that? from that look, it looks like it tracks just east of 95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z ukie is a big hit That lools rain-ish for NYC/Long Island area and probably coastal SNE with onshore flow. The 12Z Canadian, sure, it is lame for the MA, but while snow is winding down, still would have nationally televised football in a stadium with snow too recent to clear from stands, so even if snow almost over, snowballs would be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitywave Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z ukie is a big hit ...of rain. looks like its headed up the hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks like all models except op GFS show a storm. Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks like all models except op GFS show a storm. Euro ensembles? They'll start soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I didn't see the GFS Ensemble members posted, but there's a usual mix of solutions for a day 5/6 storm. Some are very far west and too close for comfort. In general, they mostly support the storm threat. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf132.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks like all models except op GFS show a storm. Euro ensembles? GFS shows a storm it just kinda separates the energy and there is a weak storm that slides south and east first then another, or an extension of the first infused with PV energy that moves NE from the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 BIG HIT? dude that s all rain on the Ukmet from that look, it looks like it tracks just east of 95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ...of rain. looks like its headed up the hudson. For you. looks good for Shanendoah valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 BIG HIT? dude that s all rain on the Ukmet yea for the coast its rain, but for the interior that would prob be a big hit. Should of specified, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Canadian misses a lot of people, but doesn't miss SNE, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 yea for the coast its rain, but for the interior that would prob be a big hit. Should of specified, sorry. fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 yea for the coast its rain, but for the interior that would prob be a big hit. Should of specified, sorry. does it impact upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 JMA is in..and its MUCH improved from yesterday shows a 1011 Low IN SC with a severe storm in the Carolinas and moderate to heavy precip in Richmond. light to Precip in DC. It slides out to sea but some parts of NC would receive over a foot. Severe Snowstorm for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 JMA is in..and its MUCH improved from yesterday shows a 1011 Low IN SC with a severe storm in the Carolinas and moderate to heavy precip in Richmond. light to Precip in DC. It slides out to sea but some parts of NC would receive over a foot. Severe Snowstorm for the SE Congrats, mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 JMA is in..and its MUCH improved from yesterday shows a 1011 Low IN SC with a severe storm in the Carolinas and moderate to heavy precip in Richmond. light to Precip in DC. It slides out to sea but some parts of NC would receive over a foot. Severe Snowstorm for the SE I'd feel a lot better if it was the euro showing it and not the jma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Id take the 12z ukmet any day and be very happy... Meteorologically speaking, what would it take to get that kind of solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 An ensemble system takes a "control" model run and perturbs the initial conditions of the numerical model to consider the effects of errors in the data assimilation system. Think chaos theory...tiny initial condition errors can result in massive forecast errors with time. The GFS ensemble has I believe 11 perturbed members and 1 control run, and you can take these different solutions and develop a "mean" as well as look at each individual member. So, for instance, if 2-3 members show a large storm and 7-8 don't, the mean will reflect those members showing the storm. In this case I find the individual members more informational than the mean. Height field maps and vorticity maps will help a lot in this case too. It has 20 perturbed members, one control, and one operational. All but the operational (that is, all 21 that would traditionally be considered ensemble members) are run at 1.0deg 6-hr resolution all the way to hour 384. The operational is run at 0.5deg 3-hr resolution to hour 192, and 2.5deg 12-hr resolution to hour 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 no...the entire state of NC would be destroyed You got a link for the model or do you have to pay for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You got a link for the model or do you have to pay for it? http://wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Euro hates you, too late. Total QPF off AccuWx PPV page, about a tenth liquid equivalent for Foxboro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You got a link for the model or do you have to pay for it? I doubt it's a significant snowstorm for us....850's are blazing in the frame before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 no...the entire state of NC would be destroyed that's precip on the JMA is NOT all snow JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You got a link for the model or do you have to pay for it? http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Only extreme nw NC has 850's below 0 at this point, looks like mostly RN verbatim, with a transition to SN, west to east as the low exits stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 yea for the coast its rain, but for the interior that would prob be a big hit. Should of specified, sorry. fair enough Yeah, that's a great track for the interior but not for the coast. In fact, that's near perfect for the Apps, just on track along (at least it appears that way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Euro hates you, too late. Total QPF off AccuWx PPV page, about a tenth liquid equivalent for Foxboro... Euro doesn't hate Caribou, ME. About an inch liquid equivalent, but 850s look cold enough for better than a 10:1 fluff, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I doubt it's a significant snowstorm for us....850's are blazing in the frame before the storm. sorry..refresh issue...i was looking at 850 temps from yesterday and surface map from today. My bad:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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