CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yeah, I was interested in how the ensembles look...not bad from being so far out. The op runs will struggle on the outcome, but always a good sign of the ensemble mean has it, especially if it goes west of the previous run from 12hrs ago. It looks like it's close to 00z or perhaps just a hair east, but looks better than the op. Edit: it is actually west a bit early on. My fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It looks like it's close to 00z or perhaps just a hair east, but looks better than the op. Weird, for me it definitely looks more tucked in with the surface low at 150 hrs compared to 162 hours at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS ensemble mean.... GGEM looks further north and west with the system as well... o-o; But it only sends a piece of the pv down to try and phase.. it leaves alot of it near and north of the lakes still... partial phase? o-O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Weird, for me it definitely looks more tucked in with the surface low at 150 hrs compared to 162 hours at 00z. Yeah see edit. I compared the wrong run. Too many windows open..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z GGEM looks more amplified than it's 00z run through 108 hours, still may head east though given it's depiction aloft. That being said the trough looks much more healthy than the 12z GFS. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Here is the 12z KMA. It shows a bomb just inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 kind of an amateur, but why does the gefs show the storm while the gfs didnt show it for sunday? whats your take on the gefs showing the storm? The gefs is a compilation or an average if you will of ten (I think?) model solutions put together. Apparently several of the solutions are still showing an east coast storm and that will reflect in the gefs. Whereas the GFS operational is just one model solution, and this time it did not show the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 108 ggem looks better than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 gem hr 144 looks very interesting at hr 144 with a 997 by hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 kind of an amateur, but why does the gefs show the storm while the gfs didnt show it for sunday? whats your take on the gefs showing the storm? An ensemble system takes a "control" model run and perturbs the initial conditions of the numerical model to consider the effects of errors in the data assimilation system. Think chaos theory...tiny initial condition errors can result in massive forecast errors with time. The GFS ensemble has I believe 11 perturbed members and 1 control run, and you can take these different solutions and develop a "mean" as well as look at each individual member. So, for instance, if 2-3 members show a large storm and 7-8 don't, the mean will reflect those members showing the storm. In this case I find the individual members more informational than the mean. Height field maps and vorticity maps will help a lot in this case too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Or having fun till the Euro comes out to crash the party? Or brings another keg?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 here is the color image for the gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The 12z GFS wasn't THAT bad - it actually split it into 2 storms so perhaps it wasn't handling thr energy well. It could be back next run. Not all runs will show the nor-easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Nice hit for the NJ coast, fringes of NYC, LI...and SNE. Lets not forget Eastern VA and MD too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Or having fun till the Euro comes out to crash the party? Or brings another keg?? We've seen fish storms go to the lakes at this time frame, so crashers and keggers until Friday most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 What does it show for the mid week storm? Thanks up front. here is the color image for the gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Are you surprised the precip. isn't more west given the low position? Anyway, maybe it's better at this point they show a storm but a little south or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It has been interesting watching the op runs as the ECM started it all then backed off, the GFS came in line next then backed off, now the CMC is coming in line (although the 0z showed a little potential). Quite interested to see what the 12Z ECM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 What does it show for the mid week storm? Thanks up front. The mid week threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Are you surprised the precip. isn't more west given the low position? Anyway, maybe it's better at this point they show a storm but a little south or east. I'm not...it's pretty far off the coast. This isn't last winter when we had an El Nino...phasing is harder to come by in La Ninas, so I wouldn't say it's better that the models are a miss right now, because that very well could be the outcome. I definitley wouldn't get too excited yet, as there's a lot that has to happen. Wes went with a 25/75 happening/not happening ratio- I'd agree with that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 thanks this looks like a 1-2 inch event to me around dc ? What do you think? The mid week threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm not...it's pretty far off the coast. This isn't last winter when we had an El Nino...phasing is harder to come by in La Ninas, so I wouldn't say it's better that the models are a miss right now, because that very well could be the outcome. I definitley wouldn't get too excited yet, as there's a lot that has to happen. Wes went with a 25/75 happening/not happening ratio- I'd agree with that for now. The low in the one panel isn't that far east. Also, in a Nina, things tend to head north. All the models are still showing the potential, so that's the important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm not...it's pretty far off the coast. This isn't last winter when we had an El Nino...phasing is harder to come by in La Ninas, so I wouldn't say it's better that the models are a miss right now, because that very well could be the outcome. I definitley wouldn't get too excited yet, as there's a lot that has to happen. Wes went with a 25/75 happening/not happening ratio- I'd agree with that for now. the GGEM is a miss in terms of low placement and late phasing not NO phasing...I think thats important because at least the GGEM shows that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 thanks this looks like a 1-2 inch event to me around dc ? What do you think? GGEM always looks warm thickness wise on models. That being said.. overall the GGEM is much weaker with this system than it was previous run. A general 1 to 2 inches would "as depicted" on the GGEM for areas of Central va into lower Maryland on it. Mix precip south of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 anyone see 276 gfs? Merry fooking Christmas from the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The low in the one panel isn't that far east. Also, in a Nina, things tend to head north. All the models are still showing the potential, so that's the important thing. I think the CMC positioning is pretty much inline with the other guidance which shows a rather compact PV anomaly ejecting NE along the Gulf. Considering how far that low is off the coast and the small size of this thing, doesn't seem weird to me. This definitely won't be a more typical noreaster event associated with a large trough/arctic air intrusion and a 180+ kt jet going negative off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I think the CMC positioning is pretty much inline with the other guidance which shows a rather compact PV anomaly ejecting NE along the Gulf. Considering how far that low is off the coast and the small size of this thing, doesn't seem weird to me. This definitely won't be a more typical noreaster event associated with a large trough/arctic air intrusion and a 180+ kt jet going negative off the coast. Ok, it's hard to see the size of the thing. But the storm is still on every model in a way, which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS individual ensembles are rather impressive. At least 6 of them are northwest of the OP and more amplified, and 5-6 show a snowstorm depending on your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Nice hit for the NJ coast, fringes of NYC, LI...and SNE. Lets not forget Eastern VA and MD too. what is Most interesting is that the cmc is usually most progressive with coasdal systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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