12Z Model Thread

[Allsnow]

Hr 75 for the 12z gfs is further north with the first wave....NC starts off with some ice then goes to rain......southern va is prob still ice.....central va-dc is light snow.

[earthlight]

The orientation of the PV over Northern New England is completely different when compared to 00z and 06z this run. It's definitely less split with this feature. That being said, there's still a ton of energy over Central Canada and the Northern Plains and the Greenland Ridging is building rapidly. It's going to be close, but this run definitely seems less organized towards a major phase than the past two OP runs.

[Allsnow]

hr 78 rain southern va, ice central va, light snow still for dc.

[Allsnow]

hr 81 rain for central va south...only light snow continues for northern va/dc

at hr 84 it starts to shear out....about .10-.25 of light snow for dc

[earthlight]

The major development at 87 hours is the ridge over the Western US which the 06z and 00z GFS did not have/was much weaker with. Pacific energy, as a result of this weaker ridge on the previous runs, leaked right into the trough over the Central US and helped to amplify the entire thing. This energy is now going to be trapped on the west side of this ridge on the west coast near the big ULL off the coast of the Northwest US. The 00z Euro had this exact development. This also allowed the energy over Central Canada and the Northern Plains to escape and the PV remained as one large entity.

[baroclinic_instability]

The orientation of the PV over Northern New England is completely different when compared to 00z and 06z this run. It's definitely less split with this feature. That being said, there's still a ton of energy over Central Canada and the Northern Plains and the Greenland Ridging is building rapidly. It's going to be close, but this run definitely seems less organized towards a major phase than the past two OP runs.

It is also taking the upper tropospheric wave farther S through 90 hrs. I bet the GFS doesn't develop the noreaster this run.

[earthlight]

It is also taking the upper tropospheric wave farther S through 90 hrs. I bet the GFS doesn't develop the noreaster this run.

Check out my above post about the ridge axis development from the West coast to the Rockies. The Euro had that feature developing--and this keeps the broad trough from developing further west. The 00z and 06z GFS had this feature much weaker or non-existent and as a result pacific jet energy moved east through the Rockies and helped amplify the trough near the MS. This energy is now "trapped" behind this ridging and is much slower..I would bet the entire thing amplifies later here.

[earthlight]

Here's the feature over the West coast/rockies at 84 hours

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f84.gif

[stormtracker]

I dunno...I sort of think it looks better than 6z. I'm looking at 108 hours vs 114 on the 6z

[baroclinic_instability]

Check out my above post about the ridge axis development from the West coast to the Rockies. The Euro had that feature developing--and this keeps the broad trough from developing further west. The 00z and 06z GFS had this feature much weaker or non-existent and as a result pacific jet energy moved east through the Rockies and helped amplify the trough near the MS. This energy is now "trapped" behind this ridging and is much slower..I would bet the entire thing amplifies later here.

Yeah I saw what you had. I agree, although I don't think it will amplify later it will just develop off the coast much farther E and much weaker. It seems to me to be almost a tri-phase with the weak southern stream upper tropospheric wave and the west coast trough ejecting energy east. That is what the earlier GFS runs were trying to do. It doesn't seem to be coming together all that well this run.

[earthlight]

I dunno...I sort of think it looks better than 6z. I'm looking at 108 hours vs 114 on the 6z

You will begin to see the downstream differences at 120-126 hours.

[CoastalWx]

Another player enters the game at hr 132. Pretty good s/w coming through Nebraska..might try to energize the low meandering off the southeast?

[Allsnow]

Yeah I saw what you had. I agree, although I don't think it will amplify later it will just develop off the coast much farther E and much weaker. It seems to me to be almost a tri-phase with the weak southern stream upper tropospheric wave and the west coast trough ejecting energy east. That is what the earlier GFS runs were trying to do. It doesn't seem to be coming together all that well this run.

This is what exactly happens....develops it much further east and weaker....no go this run

[Alpha5]

Another player enters the game at hr 132. Pretty good s/w coming through Nebraska..might try to energize the low meandering off the southeast?

possibly, either way this is going to be a different solution than the 0z/6z runs

[stormtracker]

I dunno...I sort of think it looks better than 6z. I'm looking at 108 hours vs 114 on the 6z

Blah..scratch that..just saw the 126 panels. What a mess

[baroclinic_instability]

Another player enters the game at hr 132. Pretty good s/w coming through Nebraska..might try to energize the low meandering off the southeast?

I like this real-time forecasting as the model comes in! I still think that first southern wave not phasing will disrupt everything. We will see though I can be totally wrong here.

[Ji]

here we go...luck/timing and phasing. Almost never works out for the Mid Atlantic. From Mountain highs to Valley Lows

[wxmeddler]

Too much going on at once... Trying to thread a needle here with the phasing.

[baroclinic_instability]

Definitely not looking good. That weak southern stream upper tropospheric wave is setting off weak garbage cyclogenesis and disrupting everything. The Euro was also far more south with that 0Z and not phasing.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I dunno...I sort of think it looks better than 6z. I'm looking at 108 hours vs 114 on the 6z

Ah, I can't really see the important things, but it looks like on the new run there's nothing to bring down any energy from up north. Looks like the new run will shoot out to sea, or develop too late.

Now watch it blow up into a monster!

[wxmeddler]

Hr. 144 panel has me scratching my head. The southern wave vort cluster is already OTS but the backside height falls is helping the vort strip coming out of Wyoming.

Edit: Mabye Miller A OTS?

[Alpha5]

weak vortmax at 162, moving off the NC coast....oh well

[CoastalWx]

Definitely not looking good. That weak southern stream upper tropospheric wave is setting off weak garbage cyclogenesis and disrupting everything. The Euro was also far more south with that 0Z and not phasing.

That next s/w is trying, you can see the first wave shear out, but another low tries to form east of ILM at hr 156, There are so many players, so it seems like classic struggles with the op models trying to figure out what's going on.

[CoastalWx]

That next s/w is trying, you can see the first wave shear out, but another low tries to form east of ILM at hr 156, There are so many players, so it seems like classic struggles with the op models trying to figure out what's going on.

That s/w is flying east. LOL.

[baroclinic_instability]

That next s/w is trying, you can see the first wave shear out, but another low tries to form east of ILM at hr 156, There are so many players, so it seems like classic struggles with the op models trying to figure out what's going on.

Well that first wave setting off garbage cyclogenesis off the coast will be enough to disrupt the gulf stream baroclinic zone. I doubt we will see much through 180.

[Alpha5]

Well nothing really new, the GFS changes dramatically

Wonder if the ECM will follow suit

[baroclinic_instability]

Well nothing really new, the GFS changes dramatically

Wonder if the ECM will follow suit

0Z ECM already showed this exact thing.

[Ji]

Well nothing really new, the GFS changes dramatically

Wonder if the ECM will follow suit

the ECM already lost the storm. We have no way to go but up now. So now, No models show any weekend storm.

[Alpha5]

NAO is weaker this run and the GOA low isnt helping

[Colin]

the ECM already lost the storm. We have no way to go but up now. So now, No models show any weekend storm.

yeah...crazy how fast this went downhill. seems like no matter how historic the pattern may be, the models only show a storm for about a day or two then lose it then stick with that. hopefully it's not the case this time but it seems to be another situation where everything has to go exactly right or we're stuck with cold/dry/occasional flurries.