TUweathermanDD Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12Z NAM has shifted north with are little system for Thursday Friday. 6Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 I notice the PV is much futher north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 NAM is trying to dig the initial s/w in response to the block forcing it South. At 500mb the confluence is showing up in the MA but pulling N in response to the main PV lifting a bit farther N as the block retrogrades and the 700mb map has a nice moisture reflection at 72 hours. Interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Thats 850s ayuud. Anyway, interesting to note that's a good jump north on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Thats 850s ayuud. Anyway, interesting to note that's a good jump north on the NAM. Most of the SREFS confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Decent shift N on the NAM as someone else mentioned: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12Z NAM NAILING RICH 0.56" total.... from what I can see.... 0.40" all snow do the math film at 11 great analysis Steve B NAM is trying to dig the initial s/w in response to the block forcing it South. At 500mb the confluence is showing up in the MA but pulling N in response to the main PV lifting a bit farther N as the block retrogrades and the 700mb map has a nice moisture reflection at 72 hours. Interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Decent shift N on the NAM as someone else mentioned: WOW even -SHSN here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Thats 850s ayuud. Anyway, interesting to note that's a good jump north on the NAM. it is NOT a Jump North at all you are comparing the GFS model with the Nam... why? the GFS will have No precip until 24 hrs before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 it is NOT a Jump North at all you are comparing the GFS model with the Nam... why? the GFS will have No precip until 24 hrs before the event I wasn't comparing it with the GFS. I was using the 06z NAM and the 12z NAM Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 With the clipper last weekend, the models gave us a good look early and then took it away. This time the NAM gave it early, took it back, then gave it back to us. Makes me more confident. I hope it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 I wasn't comparing it with the GFS. I was using the 06z NAM and the 12z NAM Dave. Ya i'm not sure what he is looking at there. It is def more north then 6Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12Z NAM NAILING RICH 0.56" total.... from what I can see.... 0.40" all snow Dave -- .4" of snow and .16" of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 it is NOT a Jump North at all you are comparing the GFS model with the Nam... why? the GFS will have No precip until 24 hrs before the event Beg to differ here. That IS a jump north vs 6 and even 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 does anyone see anything on the NAM that offers a hint for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 it is NOT a Jump North at all you are comparing the GFS model with the Nam... why? the GFS will have No precip until 24 hrs before the event Dave, you see anything funky with the nam or does this look like a legit poss? I know it was too far north with the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 does anyone see anything on the NAM that offers a hint for the weekend? I could be wrong, but I think the s/w at 84 hours is out west. Definitely showing up on the NAM so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I could be wrong, but I think the s/w at 84 hours is out west. Definitely showing up on the NAM so far At 84 hours... The southern shortwave is there on the NAM....but slower and 300-500 miles further west into California than the 00z GFS. The Manitoba energy is pretty similar from the 00z GFS and 12z NAM...that's the northern energy that merges with the southern shortwave 2 days later. The PV is way different on the NAM...more consolidated north of NYS instead of being centered near Nova Scotia with more extension further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 At 84 hours... The southern shortwave is there on the NAM....but slower and 300-500 miles further west into California than the 00z GFS. The Manitoba energy is pretty similar from the 00z GFS and 12z NAM...that's the northern energy that merges with the southern shortwave 2 days later. The PV is way different on the NAM...more consolidated north of NYS instead of being centered near Nova Scotia with more extension further west. does this placement affect the final outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 does this placement affect the final outcome If you want to extrapolate out the NAM...I'm sure it would. Extrapolating a model that far into the future is funny...but the NAM would not have a significant storm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If you want to extrapolate out the NAM...I'm sure it would. Extrapolating a model that far into the future is funny...but the NAM would not have a significant storm IMO. thanks. So we might trade a big storm for a mild one, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The NAM has the upper tropospheric wave south of the 4 corners at 84, the wave that will eventually phase with the northern trough and initiate incipient cyclogenesis before bombing over the Gulf Stream. It actually has a similar placement to the latest Euro farther south than the GFS, so no, it would not be a noreaster superstorm in this configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 thanks. So we might trade a big storm for a mild one, Or maybe we should just not extrapolate an already awful model at 84 hours further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The NAM is not a long range model. really can't put a ton of weight into an 84 hour NAM panel. The famous 6Z DGEX shows significant coastal development but much farther off the coast than the GFS. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Beg to differ here. That IS a jump north vs 6 and even 0z NAM again I thought Yoda was looking at the flat wave of the 0z and 6z GFS vs the 12z Nam ... MY BAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Or maybe we should just not extrapolate an already awful model at 84 hours further. You are wise in the ways of the Force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 again I thought Yoda was looking at the flat wave of the 0z and 6z GFS vs the 12z Nam ... MY BAD Thats alright I don't see major differences between the NAM and GFS at h5 at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z GFS finally has the wave coming out of TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z GFS finally has the wave coming out of TN it has precip into DC so its definitely further North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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